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Old 08-15-2002, 09:03 AM   #1
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Default It's Here! The New QB Rating System

As you well know, the NFL has an official Passer Rating System. Now there is an alternative: The Quarterback Rating System, which takes other skills a quarterback may possess besides pure passing into account. While the Passer Rating System evaluates only a quarterback's passing skills, the Quarterback Rating System evaluates the "total package," so to speak.


First, the Passer Rating System's four steps:

Percentage of Completions - Subtract 30 from the completion percentage, and multiply the result by 0.05. If the result is less than zero (Comp. Pct. less than 30.0), award zero points. If the results are greater than 2.375 (Comp. Pct. greater than 77.5), award 2.375.

Average Yards Gained Per Attempt - Subtract 3 yards from yards per attempt and multiply the result by 0.25. If the result is less than zero (yards per attempt less than 3.00), award zero points. If the result is greater than 2.375 (yards per attempt greater than 12.5), award 2.375.

Percentage of Touchdown Passes - Multiply the touchdown percentage by 0.2. If the result is greater than 2.375 (touchdown percentage greater than 11.875), award 2.375.

Percentage of Interceptions - Multiply the interception percentage by 0.25 and subtract the number from 2.375. If the result is less than zero (interception percentage greater than 9.5), award zero points.

The sum of the above four steps is then divided by six, and multiplied by 100.


Now, for the Quarterback Rating System:

Percentage of Completions - Subtract 30 from the completion percentage, and multiply the result by 0.8333. However, unlike in the Passer Rating System, there is no lower limit, meaning that this step can result in a negative value if the completion percentage is less than 30.0, and no upper limit, meaning that the maximum value possible (58.3333) is awarded for a completion percentage of 100, not 77.5.

Average Yards Gained Per Play - Obtain combined net yardage by taking the total yards passing, subtracting the number of yards lost on sacks, and adding the number of yards gained rushing. Then obtain the total number of plays by adding together the number of pass attempts, plus the number of times sacked, plus the number of rushes (i.e., carries). Divide the combined net yards by the total number of plays. Then subtract 2.5 from it and multiply the result by 4.9167. As in Percentage of Completions above, a negative value is possible, in this case if the yards gained per play is less than 2.5; if the result is lower than minus 34.6667 (yards per play lower than minus 4.55), award minus 34.6667 points. There is also no upper limit, meaning that the maximum value possible (474.4583) is awarded for an average gain per play of 99 yards, not 12.5.

Percentage of Net Touchdowns - Obtain net touchdowns by adding the number of touchdowns passing plus the number of touchdowns rushing, then subtracting the number of interceptions returned by the opponents for touchdowns and the number of lost fumbles returned by the opponents for touchdowns. Then divide the result by the number of total plays (not the number of passes attempted as in the Passer Rating System). Then multiply the percentage by 3.9583. A negative result will occur if the number of touchdowns returned by the opponents on interceptions and lost fumbles is greater than the number of touchdowns passing and rushing; if the result is lower than minus 200 (net touchdown percentage lower than minus 50.52), award minus 200 points. There is no upper limit to the value that can be awarded in this step, meaning that the maximum value possible (395.8333) is awarded for a net touchdown percentage of 100, not 11.875.

Percentage of Gross Turnovers - Obtain the number of gross turnovers by adding the number of interceptions plus the number of lost fumbles. Then divide the sum by the number of total plays, as in the Percentage of Net Touchdowns step above. Then multiply the turnover percentage by 3.9583 and subtract the number from 39.5833. A negative result will occur if the gross turnover percentage is greater than 10.0; if the result is lower than minus 200 (gross turnover percentage greater than 60.52), award minus 200 points.

The sum of the four steps is the Quarterback Rating; there is no need to divide the sum by six and then multiply by 100, as in the Passer Rating System. (In the Passer Rating System it is customary to round the result of each step to the nearest 1,000th of a point, with three numbers appearing to the right of the decimal point; in the Quarterback Rating System the results are rounded to the nearest 10,000th of a point, with four numbers appearing to the right of the decimal point).

To prove the comparability of the two systems, an analysis of the cumulative league averages under each system for the years 2000 through 2003, all inclusive, is shown below.

First, the Passer Rating Figures:

Percentage of Completions - 39,048 of 66,288 is 58.91 per cent. Subtract 30 from the completion percentage (28.91) and multiply the result by 0.05. The result is a point rating of 1.446.

Average Yards Gained Per Attempt - 445,438 yards divided by 66,288 is 6.72. Subtract three yards from yards per attempt (3.72) and multiply the result by 0.25. The result is 0.930.

Percentage of Touchdown Passes - 2,617 touchdowns in 66,288 attempts is 3.95 per cent. Multiply the touchdown percentage by 0.2. The result is 0.790.

Percentage of Interceptions - 2,142 interceptions in 66,288 attempts is 3.23 per cent. Multiply the interception percentage by 0.25 (.807) and subtract the number from 2.375. The result is 1.568.

The sum of the four steps is (1.446 + 0.930 + 0.790 + 1.568) 4.734. The sum is divided by six (78.9) and multiplied by 100. In this case, the result is 78.9.


And now, for the Quarterback Rating figures:

Percentage of Completions - 39,048 of 66,288 is 58.91 per cent. Subtract 30 from the completion percentage (28.91) and multiply the result by 0.8333. The result is a point rating of 24.0907.

Average Yards Gained Per Play - 445,438 yards passing minus 29,462 yards lost on sacks plus 25,943 yards gained rushing equals 441,919 combined net yards divided by 77,426 total plays (66,288 pass attempts plus 4,695 times sacked plus 6.443 rushes) is 5.71. Subtract 2.5 yards from yards per play (3.21) and multiply the result by 4.9167. The result is 15.7826.

Percentage of Net Touchdowns - 2,617 touchdowns passing plus 254 touchdowns rushing minus 213 opponents' touchdowns on interception returns minus 50 opponents' touchdowns on returns of lost fumbles equals 2,608 net touchdowns in 77,426 total plays is 3.37 per cent. Multiply the net touchdown percentage by 3.9583. The result is 13.3395.

Percentage of Gross Turnovers - 2,142 interceptions plus 574 lost fumbles equals 2,716 turnovers in 77,426 total plays is 3.51 per cent. Multiply the turnover percentage by 3.9583 (13.8936) and subtract the number from 39.5833. The result is 25.6897.

The sum of the four steps is (24.0907 + 15.7826 + 13.3395 + 25.6897) 78.9025, which, rounded off to the nearest tenth of a point, is 78.9.

You see? The two systems are exactly in step!

In future posts on this thread, I will compare certain quarterbacks' 2001 statistics (both for the entire season and in selected games), and show who fares better with the Passer Rating System or the Quarterback Rating System.

Last edited by Anthony; 01-29-2004 at 10:30 AM.
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Old 08-15-2002, 08:44 PM   #2
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Anthony for President! In all seriousness, do you sit and calculate these things during the day? You should apply to be a stat guy for the NFL. Nice post ... an interesting concept as I try to digest it.
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Old 08-16-2002, 02:15 AM   #3
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Arriving at the new ratios was actually fairly simple, Marc; once it's established that the average yards per play, for example, runs about 84 per cent of the yards per attempt, it was easy to change the 3 yards to be subtracted from the average to 2.5 (83.3 per cent of 3) and make the multiplier 0.295 instead of 0.25 (since 0.25 divided by 0.85 is roughly 0.295). The same basic principle was applied to determine the multipliers for the percentages of touchdowns and turnovers - although Peyton Manning probably wouldn't be too happy since he gets penalized big time for the six interceptions he threw last year that got run back for touchdowns!

And don't worry - I'll help everybody understand all of this better when I post my weekly picks here; the key will be to remember that my "creation" is the quarterback rating while the existing formula is the passer rating.

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Old 08-16-2002, 01:52 PM   #4
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Is it possible for you Anthony to post the results of all the QB's from last season for the season, rather then randomly comparing them here and there? I would like to see a run down for the season based on this ranking formula. If that is too much just say so.
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Old 08-17-2002, 02:17 AM   #5
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Yeah, I could probably do that. What I might do is post the figures for the quarterbacks in each division, one division at a time, including all quarterbacks who were in on at least 256 plays (or 16 per game; the league uses 224 attempts, or 14 per game) in 2001. I should be able to cover all eight divisions easily before the regular season starts.

In the meantime though, check out these single-game numbers from last year:

Kurt Warner, Dec. 2 at Atlanta: 17 completions in 23 attempts for 342 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs; sacked twice for 9 yards worth of losses; one carry for 3 yards, no fumbles. Completion Percentage: 73.91 (36.590). Average Gain Per Play: 12.92 (51.232). Net Touchdown Percentage: 15.38 (62.462). Turnover Percentage: 0.00 (39.583). 36.590 + 51.232 + 62.462 + 39.583 = Quarterback Rating: 189.9!

Ryan Leaf, Nov. 18 vs. Philadelphia: 11 completions in 26 attempts for 102 yards, 0 TDs; 2 INTs, both returned for touchdowns; sacked three times for 21 yards worth of losses; one carry for 0 yards, 1 lost fumble. Completion Percentage: 42.31 (10.258). Average Gain Per Play: 2.70 (0.983). Net Touchdown Percentage: -6.67 (-26.402). Turnover Percentage: 10.00 (0.000). 10.258 + 0.983 - 26.402 + 0.000 = -0.909 divided by 6 = -0.151 X 100 = Quarterback Rating: -15.2!

As far as I can tell, these are the best and worst single-game quarterback ratings, respectively, during the 2001 regular season where the starting quarterback played all or nearly all of the entire game.

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Old 08-26-2002, 02:53 AM   #6
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Below is a comparison of each quarterback's Passer Rating and Quarterback Rating for the 2001 regular season, and rank within the league under each:

Qualifiers (Minimum 256 Plays)
..............................PR......Rank...........QBR........Rank
Kurt Warner............101.4........1............102.8............1
Rich Gannon.............95.5........2.............95.2.............3
Jeff Garcia...............94.8........3.............97.1.............2
Brett Favre..............94.1........4.............92.2.............5
Steve McNair...........90.2.........5.............92.5............4
Tom Brady...............86.5.........6.............82.4...........11
Donovan McNabb......84.3.........7.............85.2............8
Peyton Manning........84.13.......8..............85.9...........6
Mark Brunell.............84.11.......9..............82.5..........10
Chris Chandler..........84.10......10.............81.8...........13
Daunte Culpepper......83.3.......11.............84.7............9
Kordell Stewart.........81.7.......12.............85.3............7
Jay Fiedler...............80.3.......13.............82.1...........12
Jake Plummer...........79.6........14.............80.7...........14
Brian Griese.............78.5........15.............79.0...........17
Brad Johnson...........77.7........16.............79.8...........16
Kerry Collins.............77.1........17............74.4...........22
Charlie Batch...........76.8.........18............74.3...........23
Alex Van Pelt...........76.43.......19............80.4...........15
Aaron Brooks...........76.42.......20............77.6...........18
Vinny Testaverde......75.3........21............75.6...........19
Jim Miller.................74.9........22.............74.5..........21
Tim Couch...............73.1........23.............70.4..........25
Doug Flutie..............72.0........24.............75.3..........20
Tony Banks..............71.3........25.............69.4..........26
Trent Green.............71.083.....26.............72.3..........24
Elvis Grbac..............71.075.....27.............69.0..........27
Matt Hasselbeck.......70.9........28.............67.6..........28
Chris Weinke............62.0........29.............64.5..........29
Jon Kitna.................61.0........30.............63.1..........30

Others Of Interest
Drew Brees...............94.8........-................97.4...........-
Trent Dilfer...............92.0........-................93.5...........-
Rob Johnson.............76.3........-................70.4...........-
Shane Matthews........72.3........-................68.2...........-
Quincy Carter............63.0........-................61.0...........-
Mike McMahon...........69.9........-................56.8...........-
Michael Vick..............62.7........-................53.4...........-

PR=Passer Rating
QBR=Quarterback Rating
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Old 08-26-2002, 06:28 PM   #7
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Well done, Anthony! Tom Brady won't be as high and Manning and Culpepper should soar to the top, IMO.
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Old 08-27-2002, 09:44 PM   #8
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Thats weird Mcnabb is 7th in the passing rating while 8th in the QB rating and is known for his running skills.....that's screwed up.
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Old 08-29-2002, 02:25 AM   #9
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It's not weird at all, since McNabb still went up 0.9 points with the changeover from Passer Rating to Quarterback Rating; the reason he dropped one place in the rankings is because Kordell Stewart's rating went up more - and the reason for that is because Stewart releases the ball much more quickly than McNabb does, leading to his having been sacked only 29 times for 175 yards worth of losses last year to McNabb's 39 for 273. Plus Stewart was one of only four full-time starters who did not allow a touchdown on an interception or fumble return (Brad Johnson, Doug Flutie and Jon Kitna were the other three). He also scored five TDs rushing (McNabb had two).

Notice Tom Brady's five-notch drop in the rankings: This is due both to Brady's immobility (sacked 41 times for 216 yards worth of losses) and his lack of running skills (36 carries for 43 yards the whole season). And Kerry Collins suffers because of the six fumbles he lost, which, when added to his 16 interceptions, resulted in his receiving a low number in the Percentage of Turnovers step.
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Old 09-13-2002, 06:21 AM   #10
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Default Week 1 Heroes & Zeros

Drew Brees had the highest Quarterback Rating in Week 1, with a 133.8 (his Passer Rating was 136.8). The lowest? Tom Tupa, whose only play (other than punts, which are not rated) was a pass (if you could call it that) which was intercepted and returned (actually picked off in the end zone) for a touchdown, making his Quarterback Rating -437.3! (Passer Rating of 0). Among quarterbacks who started and played all or most of the game, Quincy Carter's 43.6 Quarterback Rating was the lowest (Passer Rating was 42.5).

While I haven't run everybody's numbers yet, the greatest deviations between Quarterback Rating and Passer Rating I've uncovered so far are, on the plus side, Michael Vick, whose QBR was 6.2 points higher than his PR (115.0 vs. 108.8; his 9 carries for 72 yards rushing helped elevate his QBR, as did the one TD he ran for) - and on the minus side (not counting Tupa, of course), Donovan McNabb, with a QBR that is 7.5 points lower than his PR (65.4 vs. 72.9; McNabb was sacked six times and also lost a fumble).

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Old 10-12-2002, 08:35 AM   #11
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Cool Rankings Through Games Of October 7

Here is a comparison of the rankings for Passer Rating and Quarterback Rating through the games of Monday, October 7 (minimum 77 plays to qualify):

..............................PR......Rank...........QBR........Rank
Rich Gannon.............104.0.......1............109.1...........2
Kelly Holcomb...........101.9.......2............105.1...........3
Mark Brunell..............101.3.......3.............101.6..........6
Drew Bledsoe............101.1.......4............102.5...........5
Brett Favre...............100.8.......5.............100.5..........9
Trent Green..............100.4.......6.............109.8..........1
Tom Brady.................97.1.......7.............101.4..........7
Michael Vick...............93.2.......8...............90.9.........12
Peyton Manning..........91.9.......9..............100.7.........8
Jay Fiedler.................91.6......10.............103.8.........4
Brian Griese...............91.4.......11............. 93.7.........11
Donovan McNabb........90.4.......12.............95.2.........10
Brad Johnson.............89.8.......13.............89.6.........13
Jim Miller...................84.42......14.............85.9.........17
Shane Matthews........84.40......15.............88.6.........15
Aaron Brooks.............83.7.......16.............86.0.........16
Trent Dilfer...............81.8.......17.............84.5..........18
Rodney Peete............81.4.......18.............78.98........21
Jeff Garcia................81.1........19.............88.8.........14
Chad Pennington........79.8........20............82.5..........19
Kerry Collins..............79.1........21............77.1..........23
Steve McNair.............78.1........22.............81.9.........20
Drew Brees................77.7........23............78.96........22
Vinny Testaverde.......77.5........24.............62.7.........31
Chris Redman.............77.4.......25.............74.1.........26
Quincy Carter.............76.9.......26.............74.5.........25
Tim Couch.................76.1.......27.............77.0.........24
Jamie Martin...............72.1.......28..............73.2........27
Kurt Warner...............66.4.......29.............65.8.........30
Kordell Stewart...........65.7.......30.............66.8.........29
Jake Plummer.............65.12.......31.............68.0.........28
Daunte Culpepper.......65.11.......32.............62.6.........32
Jon Kitna..................57.6.........33.............62.1.........33
Joey Harrington..........53.3........34.............55.6..........34
David Carr.................49.7........35.............38.2..........36
Gus Frerotte..............46.1........36.............48.6..........35

PR=Passer Rating
QBR=Quarterback Rating
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Old 10-12-2002, 10:32 PM   #12
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Looks good, well done, Anthony. Gotta be surprised how low Garcia, Culpepper, and Stewart are based on how good they've been in previous seasons. But that goes along with their poor years, not just your rankings.
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Old 01-05-2003, 04:12 AM   #13
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Cool The 2002 Numbers Are In!

Below is a comparison of each quarterback's final Passer Rating and Quarterback Rating for the 2002 regular season, and rank within the league under each:

QUALIFIERS (Passer Rating: Minimum 224 Attempts; Quarterback Rating: Minimum 256 Plays)
..............................PR.......Rank..........QBR.........Rank

Chad Pennington......104.2........1............107.8...........1
Rich Gannon.............97.3.........2.............99.6...........2
Brad Johnson............92.9.........3.............94.8...........4
Trent Green..............92.6........4.............98.9............3
Peyton Manning.........88.8........5.............93.5............5
Matt Hasselbeck........87.8.........6............87.95..........9
Donovan McNabb......86.00........7.............88.9...........8
Drew Bledsoe...........85.97........8.............85.8..........15
Tom Brady...............85.73........9.............87.1..........12
Mark Brunell.............85.70.......10............83.9..........18
Jeff Garcia...............85.63.......11............91.2...........7
Brett Favre..............85.58.......12............87.5..........11
Brian Griese..............85.55.......13............87.00........13
Kerry Collins.............85.4.........14............86.97........14
Jay Fiedler...............85.20.......15............92.0...........6
Tommy Maddox.........85.15.......16............84.1.........17
Steve McNair............84.0........17............87.91........10
Michael Vick.............81.6........18.............84.9.........16
Aaron Brooks............80.1........19............79.6..........19
Jon Kitna.................79.1........20............79.2..........20
Jim Miller.................77.5.........21............77.81........22
Rodney Peete..........77.4.........22............70.6..........27
Jeff Blake................77.3.........23............73.6.........26
Drew Brees..............76.9........24.............77.5.........24
Tim Couch...............76.8........25.............78.1.........21
Daunte Culpepper......75.3........26............77.80........23
Shane Matthews.......72.6........27.............76.9.........25
Patrick Ramsey.........71.8........28.............64.1.........30
Chad Hutchinson.......66.3........29.............51.1.........33
Jake Plummer...........65.7........30.............66.9..........29
David Carr...............62.8........31.............58.7..........32
Joey Harrington........59.9........32.............61.4..........31
Quincy Carter..........72.3.........*..............70.0..........28

PR=Passer Rating
QBR=Quarterback Rating
Ratings Below 70 Shown in Red


*Carter did not attempt enough passes to qualify under Passer Rating System but did run enough plays to qualify under Quarterback Rating System (he attempted 221 passes but ran 265 plays, being sacked 19 times and having 25 carries rushing in addition to the 221 passes he attempted).

I'll post the non-qualifiers (the ranks of which include Marc Bulger, in case anybody's wondering why his numbers weren't in this post) as soon as I have compiled them all.
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Old 01-05-2003, 02:48 PM   #14
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Good stuff Anthony that was some hard work to do!
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Old 01-05-2003, 03:10 PM   #15
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nice, so vick wasnt that great after all in terms of stats.
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