The AP NFL Coach of the Year award is often one of the most intriguing end-of-season debates. The award doesn't always go to the coach of the best team, which is the reason that legends like Vince Lombardi have only won it once, and often goes to the coach who has done the most with very little or transformed a team's fortunes in a short space of time.
Across the 2025 season, we have seen a lot of that. You could perhaps put the Broncos' Sean Payton into the conversation, and the same could be said about the Jags' Liam Coen. Mike McDonald has had a brilliant season with the Seahawks, a team now placed as the second favorite in the latest Super Bowl LX betting odds. Any of this trio would be unsurprising picks for CotY.
Yet, the current betting points to two main candidates -- Mike Vrabel and Kyle Shanahan. Vrabel is the clear favorite, which is unsurprising since he led the Patriots to a turnaround season for the ages, regardless of what happens next. Shanahan, however, is breathing down his neck and may yet get the award that some believe he should have won in 2019.
Varbel is favorite for his second CotY award
As it stands, Vrabel, who won the award with the Titans in 2021, has the better story on paper. The Patriots' incredible reversal of form has been largely credited to coaching methods. Yes, acquisitions like Stefon Diggs have helped turn the Patriots into a force to be reckoned with, but you could argue that the most important arrivals to the team have been Josh McDaniels and Terrell Williams at offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator respectively, alongside Vrabel himself, of course.
One minor criticism thrown at the Patriots, or at least an argument that they have not been as good as the victories show, is that they have had one of the easiest strength of schedules (3rd easiest overall) in the NFL this season, only rarely being tested by elite teams. Yet, the counter to that is the Patriots' remarkable 8-0 road record, taking in huge victories over Playoff-caliber teams like the Bills and Ravens. Tougher tests will come, but Vrabel has navigated a season in which upsets have been common with astonishing sure-handedness.
Shanahan has largely fixed San Francisco's problems
Shanahan's narrative is somewhat different. The 49ers should not really be considered an underdog team. It's more a case of nobody knew what to expect. They started the 2024 season as co-favorites for Super Bowl LIX, but then had a disappointing campaign. The 2025 season has been patchy at times, but it's now abundantly clear that the 49ers are contenders again, with much credit going to the head coach.
One fix that Shanahan has made is clearly in special teams, often cited as an Achilles heel for the 49ers. Bringing in Brant Boyer as STC has clearly worked, and there were good decisions, including waiving Jake Moody and putting faith in Eddie Pineiro, who currently leads the league in field goal percentage. There were other changes, too, including tweaks to keep the 49ers defense humming.
Right now, Vrabel has the most momentum. It's clear to see why he is the favorite. The turnaround in fortunes has been the most apparent, and that's why sportsbooks have him at the top of the markets. Yet, the voters might just see some appeal in Shanahan's problem fixer approach. It's tight, and there is always the chance that someone else gets the nod in a surprise announcement. But these two have transformed the fortunes of their teams, making each a Super Bowl contender. Either would be worthy as an NFL Coach of the Year.