Anybody who knows anything at all about fantasy football is well up-to-speed on Priest Holmes, Randy Moss, and Peyton Manning. These are arguably the top-rated players at their respective positions entering the 2004 fantasy football season. Fans of LaDanian Tomlinson, Marvin Harrison, and Daunte Culpepper might pose an argument to that, however.
But some fantasy enthusiasts struggle once you get into the later rounds of a draft, when all of the marquee names have disappeared off of their cheat sheet that they printed off of the Internet about 15 minutes before draft time.
Who are some of the sleepers that are worth a late-round gamble? Who are some of the players than might start the season on your bench, but might provide valuable fantasy points when called upon for those all-important bye week and injury-related fill-in starts? Let's take a look at this writer's 2004 Preseason All-Sleeper Team.
QB - Josh McCown - Arizona
Just as this is the Cardinals' first training camp under new coach Dennis Green, this is the first camp that McCown will enter as the starting quarterback. Many fantasy experts rate McCown as a solid No. 2 quarterback, but here are three reasons why McCown will surface as a reliable fantasy starter by mid-October:
1) Although on a limited basis, McCown has played well as a starter for Arizona. In three late-season starts last season, he averaged 223 yards per game and threw 5 TDs, compared to only 2 INTs in those games. McCown is also a decent runner for a quarterback, which might net him another 2-3 TDs.
2) The Cardinals have an exciting set of playmaking receivers at McCown's disposal. Anquan Boldin has become well-known in the fantasy world. Add in rookie Larry Fitzgerald and second-year receiver Bryant Johnson, and McCown has three legitimate targets at wideout. Veteran Freddie Jones is still a reliable tight end, also.
3) Although Arizona's offense should be much improved with the emergence of McCown, addition of Fitzgerald, and reshuffling of the offensive line, their defense will still suffer as their secondary is weak and their pass-rush is non-existent. This should result in many Cardinal come-from-behind efforts that are lead by McCown, which should result in garbage touchdowns and several weeks with 40+ pass attempts.
While McCown will probably not carry a team, he should emerge as a decent fantasy starter, or at worst, a very good No. 2 quarterback in 2004.
2004 Forecast
23 TDs, 16 INTs, 3,700 yards passing
2-3 TD, 300 yards rushing
Quarterback Honorable Mention: Byron Leftwich - Jacksonville
RB - Duce Staley - Pittsburgh
Duce signed a five-year, $14 million contract with the Steelers this past offseason, leaving a crowded backfield in Philadelphia. Many would argue that he left one running back-by-committee situation for another, having to team with Jerome Bettis in Pittsburgh.
Although he will split touches with The Bus, Staley will be Pittsburgh's primary weapon out of the backfield this season, and should be a solid No. 3 running back on fantasy teams, who will fill-in nicely due to bye week and injury situations. Here are three reasons why:
1) Staley is only 29-years-old and only carried the ball 96 times last year. In fact, Staley has only had one season with over 300 carries (325 attempts in 1999). The backfield-by-committee situation in Philadelphia may have actually saved valuable wear and tear on Duce's frame, and he may be fresh for 2004 and ready to carry the heavier load that he will endure.
2) Duce's versatility will be utilized in Pittsburgh. Staley had to compete with similarly versatile backs in Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter the past few seasons. However, Jerome Bettis has become non-existent in the Steelers' passing game, and Staley should benefit from getting a large proportion of the Steelers' passes out of the backfield.
3) Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward make a great receiving tandem, but the Steelers are a run-first offense. Tommy Maddox struggled in 2003 and he is expected to give way to rookie Ben Rothlisberger at some point in 2004. Based on this, the Steelers are expected to continue to use the running game to set the tone for the passing game. Bettis cannot carry the load by himself anymore and Staley will thrive as he proves to be a huge upgrade from ex-Steeler Amos Zeroue.
2004 Forecast
1,300-1,400 all-purpose yards, 7-8 total TDs
RB - Greg Jones - Jacksonville
Jones might be considered this team's "super sleeper" in a way. You won't want to stick your neck out too far or too early for the bruising rookie out of Florida State, but Jones will be worth a flier late in annual draft leagues as a No. 4 running back. In keeper leagues, consider taking him in the early to mid rounds among other rookies, especially if you can afford to wait on Jones' development.
As far as the 2004 season goes, I will conservatively forecast Jones' numbers below. However, watch how he is used with Taylor and LaBrandon Toefield. The touchdown payoffs could be considerable. Here are a couple of reasons why Jones is worth that late round flier that was mentioned above:
1) Jones seems like a worthy candidate to be the next productive goal-line/short-yardage situational back in the league, following in the footsteps of T.J. Duckett, Zack Crockett, and Moe Williams. Take into consideration that fragile Fred Taylor is due for another injury and head coach Jack Del Rio might opt to use Jones in those goal-line situations to spell Taylor.
2) Along with reason No. 1, Jones is a young, big, and physical runner. Jones measures 6-1 and 250 pounds, and will create problems for linebackers at the goal line.
2004 Forecast
300 yards, 4 TDs
Running Back Honorable Mention: Lamont Jordan - New York Jets, Travis Minor - Miami
WR - David Givens - New England
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has not appeared to have a distinct No. 1 target among the Patriot wideouts the past couple of seasons. This might be on the verge of changing, and David Givens might become that man.
Givens should be a useful No. 3 wide receiver in leagues that call for three active wideouts each week, or he will be a great bench option in smaller leagues. Here are three reasons why Givens will take the next step in 2004:
1) First of all, he has ideal size for the Patriots' system. Brady likes to spread the ball around underneath and take shots down the field at the right times. Givens (6-0, 210 pounds) is strong enough to catch the ball underneath yet quick enough in the open field.
2) Givens ended the 2003 regular season on a hot streak, catching 5 TDs in the final six games. This shows that he and Tom Brady might be beginning to develop some chemistry.
3) The time is right for him to step up. Reasons No. 1 and 2 support Givens' case. Look at the other Patriot receivers: Troy Brown is 33-years-old and in the twilight of his career. Deion Branch should pair with Givens as the top two in the depth chart and might have more yards, but he lacks the size to be the red zone threat that Givens can be. Bethel Johnson is a great return man, but is still polishing his receiving skills.
2004 Forecast
65 receptions, 850 yards, 8 TDs
WR - Justin Gage - Chicago
Much like Greg Jones' inclusion on this team, Gage serves as a "super sleeper" candidate at wide receiver. Gage is an intriguing talent that showed flashes of great potential last season in Chicago, flashes that the Bears hope to see more often with another year of experience and new coach Lovie Smith's receiver-friendly playbook.
Don't draft Gage with the expectation of him being a regular starter for your squad. He is worth a late round selection and can be a great fill-in starter to begin the year with. His upside is enormous, though! Here are three reasons why you will want to have Justin Gage on your bench to begin the season:
1) Gage has great size and leaping ability. At 6-4 and 210 pounds, Gage is a scary combination of size and athleticism that will create problems for defensive backs in any downfield situation.
2) In his lone NFL season, Gage has already shown big play potential, as he averaged 19.9 yards per catch during his rookie campaign.
3) Much like David Givens' situation, the timing is right for Gage. Dez White left in free agency and David Terrell hasn't shown the Bears anything in his NFL career thus far. He and Gage will battle for the No. 2 receiver spot opposite of Marty Booker. Even if Terrell begins the season as the starter, look for Gage to assert himself and slowly steal playing time from Terrell.
2004 Forecast
45 catches, 750 yards, 6-7 TDs
Wide Receiver Honorable Mention: Brandon Lloyd - San Francisco, Tyrone Calico - Tennessee
Tight End - Itula Mili - Seattle
The late-season emergence of Antonio Gates (San Diego) and Boo Williams (New Orleans) put them on the fantasy football map in a hurry, and might have lessened their status as 2004 sleepers. Actually, their great finish might have caused fantasy owners to over-estimate their expectations for this season.
On the other hand, Itula Mili was a consistent tight end for the 2003 season, and should be effective again in 2004. Mili caught 46 passes for 492 yards and 4 TDs. With the breakout of Darrell Jackson and big things expected for Koren Robinson in Seattle's passing game for 2004, Mili's yardage numbers might struggle, but he will still see regular red zone looks.
You should be able to draft Mili in the late rounds and he will give you good value for the pick as a decent starter or good bench option against favorable matchups. Here are two reasons why Mili should produce under the radar again this season:
1) Seattle's offense is one of the best in the league. Defensive backfields will have difficulty focusing on both Jackson and Robinson. This should keep the center of the field open for Mili when his number is called, and should give him favorable matchups in red zone situations.
2) Jerramy Stevens lack of work ethic and overall development means that the position is still Mili's to lose, and he shouldn't lose it this season.
2004 Forecast
38 catches, 425 yards, 6 TDs
Tight End Honorable Mention: Anthony Becht - New York Jets
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