Tuesday, December 14, 2004
NFL Week 14 Power Rankings
Five Quick Hits
* Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb are the only QBs with more than half as many TD passes as Peyton Manning.
* The Browns are the only team in the NFL without a road win this season.
* Tom Jackson is slipping. He's lost his ability to make a point without overstating it. You can defend Mike Tice without calling him one of the best coaches in the league, Tom.
* Super Bowl XXXIX: Eagles over Colts.
* For the first time all season, I saw only two games in their entirety this week.
The NFL is the best pro sports league in North America, but it has the worst television package of any of the Big Four in the United States. At noon Central, my CBS affiliate was showing an infomercial and FOX had Ravens/Giants. I'm not sure which is worse.
I was so mad, I left my house -- which I usually do on Sundays only to attend a game -- and drove around looking for a sports bar (where a real game might be shown) even though I knew there weren't any nearby. I gave up, drove home, watched the halftime show, and then popped in an NFL Films video during the second half. Apparently, I really didn't miss anything. In the afternoon, CBS had Steelers/Jets, but FOX chose Packers/Lions. I guess because Brett Favre was playing? I don't understand why that was their top game.
The NFL and its television partners make a mistake by depriving fans of any choice of games. The league takes its popularity for granted, forgetting why it is popular. The goal is not to be better than baseball and basketball; it is to be the best possible. The NFL has lost sight of that and isn't doing everything to maximize its popularity. If fans could watch the games they want to see without investing in expensive cable and satellite packages, the league would be better off and its supporters would be happier. It's impossible to let everyone choose every game s/he watches, but here are two easy steps in the right direction:
1) Sunday afternoon games should always be shown on both channels so you're not locked into a stinker like Ravens/Giants. Two choices are much better than one. I have 61 channels and a ton of NFL Films videos and old game tapes, but give me even one decent live game and I'll watch it.
2) Football fans, not television producers, should be deciding which games to show.
I lived in Iowa for four years, and we consistently got the best games, probably because there are no teams within 100 miles. Last year, I lived in Missouri, and I saw a lot of the Rams and Chiefs, but at least those were successful and exciting teams last season. Now I'm on the East Coast, and it seems like I see the Giants and Ravens every week. Showing the home team is one thing, but regional interest only goes so far.
I'm not asking for the NFL's television package to be perfect, but there's no reason for it not to be better. The best sports product in the country should not have the worst TV deal on the continent.
On to the power rankings, with brackets showing previous rank.
1. Philadelphia Eagles [2] -- One of the flaws in sports television is that if you're a hardcore fan, you hear the same thing over and over. When Terrell Owens got to 13 TDs, we started hearing about the Andy Reid in tights bet. That was three weeks ago. People who settle in to watch NFL Live or Monday Night Countdown heard about the bet at least two weeks ago. We don't need it brought up every show.
2. New England Patriots [1] -- Notre Dame's hiring of Charlie Weis as its new head coach has to hurt the Patriots. I've heard it said that if any team can deal with the distraction, New England is that team. There's some reason to think that, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect the opposite, either. Bill Belichick and the Patriots emphasize team mentality more than any other team in the NFL. What sort of message does it send when one of the top assistant coaches starts splitting his time and energy with another program?
3. Pittsburgh Steelers [3] -- Why aren't the Steelers ahead of Philly and New England, both of whom they beat? Because this column rates teams according to how well they're playing right now. Those victories over the Eagles and Pats are ancient history; they don't reflect how the teams are playing now. The Steelers look great, but not the best.
4. Indianapolis Colts [4] -- They've won six in a row, beating up on mediocre opposition. The last three weeks of the regular season pit them against three teams with winning records, so I wouldn't expect the same kind of production out of the offense the next few weeks. Manning will get the single-season TD record, of course, and probably the single-season passer rating mark. But his passer rating will probably drop at least five points before the end of the season, and I don't believe he'll break Dan Marino's record for passing yards in a season.
5. San Diego Chargers [5] -- Most seasons, seven wins in a row merits a top-three power ranking. This season, though, it's the 12-1 teams, then the Colts, then the Chargers, then everybody else. San Diego is, I believe, definitively the fifth-best team in the NFL.
6. Buffalo Bills [6] -- The Bills have won six of their last seven games, including four in a row, with the loss coming at New England. In three of their last four games, the Bills won by at least 20 points.
7. New York Jets [8] -- Won five in a row to open the season, then lost three out of four. The Jets rebounded to win three games in a row, and now they've lost again. With Seattle at home next week, don't expect this to be the start of a new streak.
8. Atlanta Falcons [9] -- Unlike Green Bay, the Falcons rebounded nicely from last week's disaster. Their 25-point win over the Raiders was the largest of the season. Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett both had big games, and Michael Vick did what he had to do.
9. Green Bay Packers [7] -- Allowed 156 rushing yards to Kevin Jones and had to come back from a 13-0 halftime deficit. It's impressive that they did come back, but squeaking by Detroit hardly qualifies as a statement game after they got blown out by Philadelphia.
10. Carolina Panthers [14] -- This team has won five games in a row and hasn't scored fewer than 20 points since October. This week's game at Atlanta will tell us how the Panthers deal with stiff competition. I'm guessing pretty well.
11. Cincinnati Bengals [11] -- The consensus seems to be, "Boy, Marvin Lewis sure made the right call going with Carson Palmer over Jon Kitna at the beginning of the season." Beg to differ. Kitna was terrific last year, better than Palmer has been this season. The new guy's been playing well the last few weeks, but with Kitna under center all season, the Bengals might be 8-5 or 9-4 right now.
12. Baltimore Ravens [13] -- Kyle Boller had a nice game against the feeble Giants, but the real credit goes to the defense. It's hard to force an opponent into a 0.0 passer rating, no matter who you're playing against.
13. Denver Broncos [12] -- In the last three weeks, Denver has lost twice and barely beaten the Dolphins. Since their four-game winning streak ended on Halloween, the Broncos are 3-4. Jake Plummer is taking too much of the heat for their poor performance, though.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [10] -- Playoff chances are virtually nil, but I'd rather see Tampa than Minnesota or St. Louis. The Buccaneers struggle on the road, with a 1-6 record that can't be blamed on cold weather (they haven't played north of the Mason-Dixon Line since September). The Bucs and Chiefs are the only losing teams to have outscored their opponents.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars [16] -- Three losses in their last four games. The teams at the top are so good this season that all the teams in the middle have bad records.
16. Washington Redskins [22] -- This is risky, but Washington is obviously much improved, and no other team has a compelling case to be ranked this high. In the last four weeks, Washington has played against Philadelphia twice and at Pittsburgh. Joe Gibbs and Co. lost those three games, but respectably, and in the other one, they blew out the Giants.
17. Houston Texans [17] -- Five losses in their last six games, but all against winning teams, and there's no one to move ahead of them. At home, Houston is 3-4 and has outscored opponents by 12 points. On the road, the team is 2-4 and has been outscored by 74. The standard for homefield advantage is around +3. For this year's Texans, it's +10½. Maybe even more, because Houston's home opponents have a better combined record than the teams it has faced on the road.
18. Kansas City Chiefs [18] -- Billy Volek played well and all, but the Kansas City defense made him look better than he really is. The defense was Horrible. Yes, with a capital H.
19. St. Louis Rams [19] -- Five losses in their last seven games. This year's NFC West is so bad, the winner should try to decline its invitation to the playoffs.
20. Seattle Seahawks [24] -- Last season, they were 8-0 at home. This year, they're 3-3. Seattle is also the only division leader with a losing record in its division (2-3).
21. Minnesota Vikings [15] -- Much better at home (5-2) than on the road (2-4). The Vikings are another team -- the third in a row -- that opened strong and sucks now. Since a 5-1 start, Minnesota has lost five of its last seven. They're 1-2 with Randy Moss back.
22. Tennessee Titans [21] -- Anyone who watched the game could tell that Tennessee outplayed KC. I thought that even before the shady roughing call at the end of the game. The Titans are beaten up, but they aren't giving up.
23. New Orleans Saints [28] -- Ended a three-game losing streak with a win at Dallas, holding the Cowboys to 13 points. It's the first time all season that New Orleans has kept an opponent below 20.
24. Dallas Cowboys [20] -- I hate this part of the rankings. Dallas could be ahead of the Rams. I don't know.
25. Oakland Raiders [23] -- During their five-game losing streak earlier this season, the Raiders really were awful. Oakland still isn't winning much, but it's keeping games close against good teams.
26. Detroit Lions [26] -- There are so many teams that deserve to be in the bottom quarter of the rankings, and a close game at Green Bay might deserve a jump, but Joey Harrington has been miserable for the last month. The Lions can't win with that kind of quarterbacking.
27. Chicago Bears [25] -- The Dolphins have scored more points this season than the Bears. With Washington's offense improving, Chicago is a decent bet to finish last in the NFL in points scored this season.
28. Miami Dolphins [29] -- They may be tied for the league's worst record, but Miami is definitely playing better than a few teams that have more wins.
29. Cleveland Browns [27] -- Seven losses in a row, and they look a little worse every week.
30. Arizona Cardinals [30] -- Everyone beats the Dolphins and Giants, so wins against them really don't count. Neither does beating the Saints and Seahawks in Arizona. Which means the Cardinals haven't won any games at all this year.
31. New York Giants [31] -- Every week, including during this Sunday's pregame shows, I hear Eli Manning apologists state unconditionally that Little Manning will be a great quarterback in this league. But it isn't true: that is not a given. I bet the same people said the same thing about Ryan Leaf.
32. San Francisco 49ers [32] -- Only the worst teams are so bad that they can win and still not move out of the bottom of the rankings. The 2004 Niners are such a team.