Five Quick Hits
* Unforgivable Blackness, the new Ken Burns documentary about boxer Jack Johnson, is terrific. Check PBS.org for local listings.
* Chris Berman has become intolerable.
* Super Bowl XXXIX: Patriots over Eagles.
* Maybe I shouldn't hold Mike Nolan's disastrous stint as defensive coordinator in Washington against him, but I think the 49ers have made another terrible hire.
* Until Sunday, no one had held the Indianapolis starters under 20 points.
What common thread tied together this weekend's winning teams? Rushing offense. Every winner in the divisional round had more carries than its opponent. That statistic can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, since teams tend to throw more often when they trail, and run more often when they're ahead — but this weekend's numbers are staggeringly unbalanced.
Total carries can be misleading, especially when so many talented running QBs are playing, so let's focus on handoffs to RBs. The Steelers, in the only close game of the bunch, outrushed the Jets 39-24. Atlanta RBs carried the ball 32 times to the Rams' 16 and Philadelphia's pass-oriented offense managed a 22-16 margin over the Vikings. And, most glaringly, the Patriots pounded the Colts with 34 rushes, compared to only 14 for Indianapolis.
As a total, that's 127-70: the victorious teams handed off 81% more than the clubs they defeated. This is less about rushing offense than rushing defense, though. When an opponent runs the ball 30 times, it wears out your defense, leaves the offense cold, and demoralizes your entire operation. Let that happen and you haven't got a chance.
Divisional Roundups
Jets at Steelers
The first point to note about this game is that the Jets played really well. Probably about as well as they can play. They rattled Ben Roethlisberger, dominated the return game, and got Curtis Martin four yards per carry. New York's offense was okay, its defense was great, and the special teams didn't suffer total humiliation like St. Louis's.
It's tempting to pin the loss on special teams, since Doug Brien had two chances to win the game at the end of regulation, but if not for the Santana Moss punt return that gave New York its first TD, the Jets wouldn't have been in that position in the first place. The team's coverage units held Antwaan Randle El in check, and early in the game Brien and holder Toby Gowin somehow made lemonade (a 42-yard FG) out of lemons (a high snap).
There's room to second-guess any close loss, but I think the Jets put on a pretty impressive performance, coming off two consecutive overtime games on the road and taking a 15-1 Pittsburgh team to overtime on the home field where it was undefeated this season.
The reason this game was close is the New York defense. In the first half, it effectively took away Pittsburgh's running game. And, perhaps as a result, Big Ben never really looked comfortable. In fact, except for the odd play here or there, he looked awful. It wasn't until the second half, banging away with Duce Staley and Bettis, that Pittsburgh's offense finally put together a drive of more than seven plays and 37 yards.
The stout Steeler defense kept the home team alive while its offense struggled. It sacked Chad Pennington three times, held him to 182 yards (a measly 5.5 per attempt), came up with a big interception, and allowed only three points all game. I rip officials when they screw up, so it's only fair to mention that I thought Bill Leavy and his crew did a great job with this game.
Rams at Falcons
The Rams have been pretenders all season, and Atlanta exposed them in convincing fashion. The Ram offense retained its brilliant reputation even during a sub-par season in which St. Louis ranked 19th in scoring offense. The defense, ranked last in interceptions and 29th against the rush, also allowed 15 runs of 20 yards or more (only Miami was worse) — something which came into play against the Falcons — but somehow avoided the reputation that plagues the defenses of Indianapolis and Minnesota. The special teams, neglected by head coach Mike Martz, were the worst in the league.
The game was a blowout from the beginning, so there's not too much to discuss, but it's worth pointing out that Atlanta's offensive line had itself a heck of a game. Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn made terrific plays, but Dunn had some huge holes to run through. Ed Donatell's defense pressured Marc Bulger without blitzing the safeties, and the Falcons had Bulger on the ground all game, sacking him four times and forcing two turnovers.
Awful run defense would have been enough to cost St. Louis the game, but the Rams also suffered the most embarrassing special teams meltdown in recent memory. Martz's predecessor was Dick Vermeil, who as an assistant to Hall of Fame coach George Allen became the first special teams coach in NFL history. The Rams have perhaps the most distinguished special teams tradition in the league, but on Saturday, Martz's team muffed a kick return, bungled the simple act of downing a punt, and allowed Allan Rossum to break NFL single-game playoff records for punt return yards and average.
Vikings at Eagles
At the end of a game in which both teams made mistakes — a lot of mistakes — the Eagles came away with a sloppy but convincing victory. Easily-excited folk talked about Minnesota as a Super Bowl contender after its victory over Green Bay last week, but the Vikings went 8-8 — in the NFC, no less — for a reason.
Philadelphia made some nice plays on offense, particularly in the first half, when they were supposed to be rusty. Andy Reid and Brad Childress didn't get the memo, though, and the offense looked very sharp. Minnesota never seemed to figure out exactly what to do against Brian Westbrook, while Freddie Mitchell, who brings his best for the postseason, came up with big play after big play. The offensive line did its job and Donovan McNabb looked comfortable in the pocket.
The story of this game, though, has to be Philadelphia's defense. Jeremiah Trotter was all over the place. Daunte Culpepper was under constant pressure and completed barely half his passes. Viking RBs combined for only 16 carries, leaving the only potentially weak spot of Jim Johnson's defense untested. Minnesota never seemed to make any adjustments to put themselves back in the game, but even when it was still close, it was never close. From beginning to end, it just felt like the Eagles were in control.
Colts at Patriots
Everyone knew what the Patriots wanted to do in this game. Everyone except, apparently, the Indianapolis coaching staff.
On offense, New England wanted to run the ball, control the clock, and keep the Indianapolis offense on the sidelines. And inexplicably, the Colts allowed them to do just that. The Colts spread out horizontally, emptying the middle of the field for inside runs by Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk. They blitzed about twice all game, usually rushing only the three or four down-linemen. If you've ever wondered what it would be like to see a team play "prevent defense" for an entire game, this was your chance.
On defense, the Patriots wanted to take away the big play. The Colts played into their hands by handing off and throwing short passes. Indianapolis could have stood to borrow a page from Mike Martz's playbook and taken their shots down the field. Instead, they let New England dictate the flow of the game and mostly threw screens and slants and quick crosses, with a heavy dose of the running game early.
A game plan that facilitated everything their opponents wanted to do wasn't the only problem, though. New England's defense played an incredibly good game. The Pats controlled the line of scrimmage from start to finish. Edgerrin James found holes hard to come by, and there was constant pressure on Peyton Manning, often with only four rushers. The underappreciated Patriot offensive line created opportunities for Dillon and Faulk and, though it struggled at times in pass protection, generally kept Tom Brady off the ground.
To cap it off, no one on Indianapolis played well. The great o-line got dominated, and James looked tentative all game. Patience is great, but sometimes you just have to lower your shoulder, dive forward for the extra yard, and go back to the huddle; James didn't do that. Manning looked rattled almost from the beginning. He was jumping around in the pocket and throwing on the move. He'd move his arm and you couldn't tell if it was a pump-fake or a pass he decided to hold onto at the last second. His play fakes were unconvincing and he seemed frustrated and resigned by the end of the first series. The receivers couldn't get open downfield against New England's patchwork secondary. The defense never found a way to stop the run.
The Colts mishandled this game, and bad weather almost certainly played a role, but the better team won. Indianapolis was never in the game.
The Crystal Ball
Falcons at Eagles
Every team wants to make Michael Vick try to win with his arm. The Eagles are going to put seven or eight defenders in the box on almost every play, and they'll blitz frequently. Vick is dangerous as a runner, and you can never count on stopping him from making plays with his feet. But if that's the only way the Falcons are moving the ball, they won't be able to win. If Philadelphia can take Dunn and T.J. Duckett out of the equation, I like its chances.
Atlanta's defense, like Vick, is inconsistent but potentially dominant. Reid and Childress need to slow down the Falcons' pass rush with screens and draws, and protect McNabb with extra blockers and three-step drop passes to Westbrook and L.J. Smith. I'd try to get Mitchell involved, too. Atlanta will make things much tougher for McNabb than Minnesota did, but I don't know if they have anyone capable of covering Westbrook.
It's inconceivable that Rossum and the Falcons can duplicate their explosive performance in Philadelphia, and I think Atlanta will have trouble getting its offense going. Weather could also be a factor, especially in contrast to the fast indoor conditions Atlanta played in last week. Big plays on defense could make the difference for the Falcons, but I think Reid's Eagles will finally conquer their NFC Championship demons this year. Philadelphia by seven.
Patriots at Steelers
The Steelers are not as vulnerable as they looked on Saturday. The Jets game was two plays away from being an ugly (but convincing) 17-3 win. Pittsburgh has the NFL's best defense, a terrific offensive line, and explosive playmakers in the receiving corps. The first time these teams met, the Steelers dominated time of possession, 43 minutes to 17. They outrushed New England, 221-5. The Patriots had no rushing first downs. Tom Brady got sacked four times and intercepted twice. Staley averaged five yards per rush and Bettis had a season-long 29-yard run. Roethlisberger had a season-high 126.4 passer rating.
The Pats didn't have Dillon in that game, but they did have All-Pro defensive lineman Richard Seymour, who didn't play against the Colts and might not be available on Sunday. The Patriots match up against Pittsburgh better than the Colts would have, but the Steelers match up very well against New England, too. On paper, New England really doesn't have much chance.
But I'm taking the Patriots, somewhat uneasily. The huge holes Dillon and Faulk ran through against the Colts won't be there in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers' pass rush and secondary are better than the Colts', so Brady could have a rough day, but I think he'll generate the bulk of New England's offense. The Jets nearly made Pittsburgh beat itself, but New England's injury-depleted secondary and defensive line could have trouble getting Big Ben to make the same mistakes he did against New York. It wouldn't be wise to count on two miserable games in a row from the phenomenal rookie. The Patriots do have a terrific run defense, and that could tip the scales in their favor.
In the end, though, I can't break down a New England victory. Logic says the Steelers should win. Call it an edge for the Patriots' coaching staff, I guess. New England by three.
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