Friday, February 18, 2005
Bonds’ Stock Falling: Was Barry Ever “Best”?
It is safe to say that Barry Bonds will never again hit 73 home runs in a season. Nor should anyone do so — those 50 home run years by the likes of Brady Anderson, Brett Boone, and Luis Gonzalez are things of the past — a pre-BALCO anomaly that will go down in baseball history under the cloak of suspicion.
Suffice it to say that Ted Williams, Willie McCovey, Reggie Jackson, Mike Schmidt, Willie Stargell, and Harmon Killebrew never hit 50 homers in a single season. Having said that, PEDs or no, how good was Barry Bonds?
For three years, assorted scribes, radio sports talk hosts, and ESPN heads have declared Barry Bonds as either the greatest ballplayer of all-time, the best hitter who ever lived, or the best player active today. His name has been mentioned in the same breath as Ted Williams, and many have granted him the status of either or both Willie Mays and Babe Ruth.
Since Bonds is easier to assess among his peers than against his predecessors, let's see how he stacks up against the guys playing today. Without taking fielding, throwing, or base-running into account, solely batting ... I don't see Barry as the premier player now or ever, juice notwithstanding. Let me tell you why:
Here are Barry's major batting stats over the past 15 seasons, the first column is home runs, second is RBI, third his batting average:
1990 25 PIT NL 33 114 .301
1991 26 PIT NL 25 116 .292
1992 27 PIT NL 34 103 .311
1993 28 SFG NL 46 123 .336
1994 29 SFG NL 37 81 .312
1995 30 SFG NL 33 104 .294
1996 31 SFG NL 42 129 .308
1997 32 SFG NL 40 101 .291 (Ken Griffey, Jr.: 56 HR, 147 RBI, batted .304)
1998 33 SFG NL 37 122 .303 (Sammy Sosa: 66 HR, 158 RBI, batted .308)
1999 34 SFG NL 34 83 .262 (Sammy Sosa: 63 HR, 141 RBI, batted .288)
2000 35 SFG NL 49 106 .306 (Sosa: 50 HR, 138 RBI, batted .320)
2001 36 SFG NL 73 137 .328 (Sosa: 64 HR, 160 RBI, batted .328)
2002 37 SFG NL 46 110 .370
2003 38 SFG NL 45 90 .341 (Albert Pujols: 43 HR, 124 RBI, batted .359)
2004 39 SFG NL 45 101 .362 (Pujols: 46 HR, 123 RBI, batted. 331)
Moreover, "best" should apply to both leagues — let's take another peek at Bonds in '98: .303, 37 HR, 122 RBI, while Cleveland's Manny Ramirez hit .294 with 45 HR and 145 RBI. Advantage Manny.
In '99, Bonds had .262, 34 HR, and 83 RBI. Over in the AL, Manny Ramirez hit .333 with 44 HR and 165 RBI in only 147 games, more than a run batted in per-game. In 2000, Bonds (who was not yet being compared to Mays and Williams because he hadn't broken McGwire's single-season homer mark or Ruth's standard for walks), hit .306 with 49 homers and 106 RBI. Great season, but Manny hit .351, with 38 HR and 122 RBI.
The next season, 2001, Bonds posted .328, 73 HR, and 137 RBI. Now the Mays/Williams comparisons begin. AL star Alex Rodriguez hit .318 with 52 HR and 135 RBI. In '02, compare the two players as hitters- Barry: .370, 46, 110, A-Rod: .300, 57, 142.
It seems Bonds is not only not the greatest player of all-time, he's not the greatest hitter of his era. He's clearly not the best run producer — Sosa, Manny, and A-Rod have him there. And I don't buy the "there's no one on base when Barry comes up" argument; throw that in the S.F. Bay. A-Rod played for the Rangers in the years I cited, and Sammy for the Cubs. Yet Bonds has been voted league MVP in 2001, '02, '03, and '04. Go back and look at him and Sammy in '01, and he and young Pujols in 2002 and 2003.
As for Bonds stats vs. early Griffey, there's no debate — Junior hit 56 homers in both 1997 and 1998, so I'll close my case regarding hitting. Just as importantly, if Bonds were the all-around player Mays was, would pitchers be giving him first base? A five-tool player can hurt the opposition on the basepaths, an intentional walk to a Mays or a Mantle was an invitation to steal second base. And if Bonds were a great glove man, he wouldn't be playing left field, wouldn't he?