Wednesday, March 9, 2005
March Madness: The Winds of Change
Although I was able to conquer both urges, putting off sleep long enough to finish my article and pick Kansas to win it all, after nearly four months of basketball, I find myself in a very similar, yet strangely different position. I'm again fighting the urge to sleep instead of writing an article, but now, instead of nodding off in New York, I'm losing sleep in Los Angeles.
Along with the change of scenery, however, comes a change in thinking. Kansas is no longer my favorite to win the title. In fact, I doubt Kansas will even make it to St. Louis this year. I have a new favorite to win the title now, as well as a darkhorse candidate to be my favorite's opponent in the national title game.
When the season began, I, like most prognosticators, was trying to choose between North Carolina, Wake Forest, and Kansas as my pick to cut down the nets in St. Louis. North Carolina, with the junior troika of Sean May, Rashad McCants, and Raymond Felton, the addition of über-freshman Marvin Williams, and the added benefit of having another season under the tutelage of coach Roy Williams made them a very popular choice to win the national championship.
Wake Forest, on the other hand, had the superb guard tandem of Chris Paul and Justin Gray, fresh off a gold medal-winning performance as members of the U.S. Junior National Team, as well as an emerging big man in Eric Williams. They returned every member of a team that was only a possession or two away from defeating St. Joe's and advancing to the Elite Eight last season. And all Kansas had was a group of returning seniors, in Keith Langford, Aaron Miles, and Wayne Simien, who have already been to two Final Fours and came an overtime period away from getting there last year.
After much deliberation, I decided to go with Kansas. Looking out over the college basketball landscape, I realized that there were many teams who were very close in overall talent, but only a few that relied on a commodity not many college teams possess these days: seniors. Kansas was the rare team that wouldn't rely as much on freshmen to contribute immediately, but on seniors who had been to the Final Four on two separate occasions. "Experience counts," I finally told myself.
As the season unfolded, Kansas did not disappoint. They started the season on a 14-game winning streak, even withstanding the loss of Simien early, during their pre-conference schedule. However, after having their undefeated season derailed with a stunning defeat at Villanova, the Jayhawks hit a bit of a snag during the middle of February, losing three straight conference games at one point. Although the Jayhawks were able to right the ship with a scintillating victory over Oklahoma State a few weeks ago, the Jayhawks don't seem to be as good a team as they did at the beginning of the season.
What's made me jump of the Kansas bandwagon as the season has progressed? Their lack of a consistent outside shooting threat. Wayne Simien is an absolute beast down low and should touch the ball every time down the court for the Jayhawks. When Simien is heavily involved in the offense, the Jayhawks are a dangerous team. There aren't many teams in the country that can handle Simien in the paint without doubling him or running some other junk defense designed to stop him.
But Kansas has shown an inability to hit shots from the outside consistently and their opponents have taken notice, playing zones and daring the rest of the Jayhawks to beat them from the outside. Although Kansas has been able to get away with it for most of the season, a lack of an outside threat will hurt them come tournament time.
So, who needs to step up and make teams pay for all the zones Kansas will probably see in their upcoming games? Paging J.R. Giddens. Mr. Giddens, please pick up the white courtesy phone. Your game is calling.
Giddens was supposed to be the "lightning" to Simien's "thunder" this season for Kansas this season. This was supposed to be Giddens' "breakout" season. This was the year Giddens showed the NBA scouts that he was a bona fide prospect and future lottery choice.
But, something happened on his way to Madison Square Garden, the shiny new suit and the cheesy handshake with David Stern. Giddens disappeared and so did his game. Perhaps he was too enamored with all the preseason press accolades he received at the onset of the season. To be fair, somebody who looks and sounds an awful lot like me wrote earlier this season that Giddens was on the verge of becoming a star and that this was the year he finally emerged. Well, whatever it was, Giddens regressed to the point where he now gets my vote for the "MDP" award: Most Disappointing Player.
In fact, while watching Kansas lose to Iowa State in the midst of their three game conference slide, I jotted down a few notes: "Giddens is the most disappointing player in the country." "Played too passively this season." "Relying too much on outside jumper."
Now, I realize I just wrote that Giddens needs to hit outside jumpers to relieve some of the pressure on Simien. However, there needs to be some balance to his game. He can't just stand outside the arc, waiting for the ball to be kicked out to him, which is what I've seen him do too often this season.
Giddens is at his best when he uses his explosive leaping ability to attack the basket but often times this year that part of his game has been absent. He seems content with floating around the arc, launching off-balance, contested threes, instead of using his athletic ability to draw contact in the lane and get to the free throw line. I've watched about 10 Kansas games this season (thank you, "ESPN Full Court") and I could probably count on both hands the number of times Giddens made an authoritative move to the basket out of a half-court set.
Kansas needs Giddens to be a major offensive weapon during the postseason. Instead of wandering aimlessly around the three-point line, he has to take the ball to the basket more often, which will cause his defender to back off a little, which in turn will give him the space he needs to shoot his jumper. It sounds simple, but you'd be amazed how much bigger the basket looks from outside once you get a few easy dunks and lay-ups to start you off. Kansas needs Giddens to live up to all the preseason press clippings if this group of seniors is to return to the Final Four for the third time in four years. Too bad my gut is telling me that it won't happen and the Jayhawks will be on the outside looking in for the second consecutive season.
If, however, you're looking for a "sleeper" team to make it to St. Louis when filling out those brackets, stay in the Big 12 and look no further than the Oklahoma State Cowboys. I know what you're thinking. 'Oklahoma State isn't a sleeper. They're 21-6 and have been ranked in the top 25 all season.' However, the Cowboys have many of the same ingredients I thought would propel Kansas to the championship this year, namely tournament experience and senior leadership. Couple that with the fact the Cowboys play aggressive, sometimes suffocating defense, along with the three-guard lineup of freshman Jameson Curry and seniors Daniel Bobik and John Lucas III, and the Cowboys will be a dangerous team in the next few weeks.
Teams that play defense always do well in March and the Cowboys are one of the best defensive teams in the country. As long as the Graham Twins continue to do the dirty work inside, the guards, much like Illinois' talented trio, will carry them. Oklahoma State's main problem will be depth, or their relative lack thereof. If their interior players can stay out of foul trouble, Lucas III and Curry, who is a potential star-in-the-making, can score enough to lead the Cowboys back to the Final Four.
But, after carefully poring over team RPIs, schedule strengths, "good" and "bad" losses, injury reports and the like, one team keeps popping out at me. And that team is North Carolina. (Surprise, surprise!) Carolina has been one of the two most consistent and dominant teams all season, right along with Illinois. After a blip on the radar in their season-opening loss to Santa Clara, the Tar Heels have won 25 of 27 games, including wins against Kentucky and everyone's Flavor of the Month "spoiler" team, UConn.
The Tar Heels are the most explosive team in the country and as long as they play with a sustained effort on the defensive end, they have too much firepower for most teams in America ... with one caveat: Rashad McCants must be available to play and he must play like he did before he became stricken with the illness that's been affecting him for the better part of the last month. McCants is a near unstoppable offensive player and Carolina needs him to take some of the pressure off the broad shoulders of Sean May, who's been the best player in the country the last month or so. If Roy Williams has his full complement of players once the NCAAs begin, then I see no reason why he shouldn't be celebrating his first national championship come sometime around 8:30 PM, West Coast time.
When I decided to move to California, after spending most of my entire life in New York City, some of my friends thought I was crazy and I have to admit, there have been times during the last few weeks where I thought I was, too. But, as soon as the calendar flipped to March, I finally began feeling a lot more at ease and a little less crazy. Maybe it's true what an Illinois sports official once wrote way back in 1939: "A little March Madness may contribute to sanity." In my case, March Madness definitely contributes to my sanity and I hope it does in your case, as well. Welcome to March, my friends. And welcome to March Madness.