The lifeblood of any legendary fantasy football team has always been the running back position. Sure, having a great QB stat hound is a great conversation piece for that braggadocios owner in your league who waxes poetically each week about Peyton Manning's six touchdown passes, but is conspicuously silent three weeks later when his star QB endures a two-point performance on the strength of four interceptions and 180 passing yards.
Alas, the running backs, when selected with care and attention to detail, provide a steady supply of points that can be counted on week in and week out. Many a fantasy owner has rued his/her first-round pick of a QB and second round WR selection. Without the stability of solid running back options, it is almost a given that your team will fall into the pit of anonymity, regardless of what league format you adhere to.
In the second installment of my fantasy football ratings, I offer up the top 40 ground-gainers to be had. In case you missed installment one, which rated the league's quarterbacks relative to fantasy football, I recommend checking out the article (for totally non-narcissistic purposes, I should add), as it presents a detailed, if not overly scatterbrained, explanation of roughly how my ratings are discerned.
With that, let's segue right into my fantasy football running back power rankings. Again, I've included each player's strength of schedule, as calculated by yours truly, in parenthesis aside each player's name. I should note that the running backs list includes the strength of schedule relative to the opponent's run defenses, whereas the QB ratings included the combined (pass/run) strength of schedule. Additionally, after each entry you'll find projected 2005 statistics (again, based on my analysis formulas and methodology, described in my "Rating the Quarterbacks" article).
1) LaDanian Tomlinson, Chargers (21)
Surprise, surprise. As inadequate as any explanation given in regards to L.T.'s exceptional talent is, it would be remiss of me to simply list his name as the top-rated rusher and to not offer any insight as to why. Tomlinson is one of a dying breed in today's NFL — a three-down back who can hit you between the tackles and at the goal line, as well as in the open field. Add to that Tomlinson's unequaled value in the passing game and you have yourself the best overall player in any fantasy draft.
With San Diego's resurgence, the difficulty of L.T.'s schedule is not as large a negative as with most any other skill position player because he has proven year-in and year-out that he'll get his, regardless how bleak the outlook. If he's not a top three pick in your draft, pick up your things, go home, and find yourself a real league.
(2005 projected stats: 1,406 rushing yards/65 catches, 506 receiving yards/19 TD)
2) Priest Holmes, Chiefs (30)
I can hear it now. "How can you possibly have Priest Holmes rated this high — the guy is always hurt! And with Kansas City's schedule — fogitaboutit!" Well, the man played in eight games last year and scored 15 touchdowns. His 111 yards per game was second to, well, nobody. As horrifying as his schedule is, Holmes does have a dominating run blocking set of offensive linemen in front of him and need only be given a small crease for a split second to really make an impact on a game.
If you are in the unenviable position of picking third or fourth in your draft and Tomlinson and Manning are off the board, take Holmes and plan on reaching a bit in round five or six for his backup, Larry Johnson (see below). If he does manage to stay healthy for 16 games, you can all but engrave your name on your league championship plaque now and if not, he'll give you the best 10-14 games of any back in football.
(1,120/59, 457/20)
3) Tiki Barber, Giants (14)
I have to admit, after all the number crunching, I was as surprised as anyone to see this name so high on my value list. But, as I've said before, the numbers don't lie and Barber is as good a two-way threat as there is coming out of the backfield. With Tom Coughlin's passion for power running and scare-you-to-death approach to coaching, Barber has managed to learn how not to fumble and showed last year that he can take a beating and keep on ticking.
While I personally wouldn't draft Barber in round one, that's more a matter of preference than it is an edict of fact and I wouldn't be honoring the integrity of my list if I recommended anything less than a top-10 pick being used on Tiki.
(1,269/81, 630/14)
4) Domanick Davis, Texans (6)
Though I'm from Houston (not originally, of course — I'm a Mainer by birth), this had nothing to do with my high rating on Davis nor did it factor in my equally lofty ranking for his QB David Carr. Houston is a team on the rise and Davis, when 100%, is a deadly weapon to have. Look for Davis to replicate last year's numbers with a marked increase in touchdowns, as smart money has the Texans offense putting many more points on the board than most would anticipate.
Domanick, like the others in my top four, supplements his running prowess with a proven effectiveness in his team's passing offense. D-squared should be a top-10 pick in any league format, and if he happens to be sitting around early in the second round, try not to pee yourself and snatch him up quickly.
(1,246/74, 578/14)
5) Jamal Lewis, Ravens (10)
One of the three one-dimensional backs in my top-10, Lewis is looking to prove all of his detractors wrong. If memory serves, the last time he came out with a chip on his shoulder was 2003, and we all know what that year had in store for Jamal. The Ravens have a weakened offensive line, but one that underperformed last season (read: it will improve) and his battering ram style of running mixed with exceptional size-to-speed ratio makes Lewis an easy pick as you approach the back end of the first round, even if he has zero contribution in Baltimore's feeble passing game.
(1,470/19, 149/16)
6) Shaun Alexander, Seahawks (5)
Another that I would classify as one-dimensional (though he did post 4 receiving touchdowns a year ago), Alexander is a bit of an enigma. His attitude is annually on the wrong side of the surly-scale, yet he continues to be one of the most consistent scoring threats this side of Wilt Chamberlain (read into that what you will).
The more concerning issue surrounding Alexander is the undeniable reality that his team's window of opportunity is quickly closing, and an unhappy player with a bad attitude playing for a sub-.500 team is never a good mix and could ultimately effect the last handful of games he plays this season. Still, the man is a touchdown machine and should be an easy first-round selection to make.
(1,418/23, 178/16)
7) Willis McGahee, Bills (27)
For all the bad things you will read in my future NFL-related articles about Buffalo (I am, after all, a proud Dolphins backer), I can't possibly say enough good things about McGahee. He has big play potential to spare and, even though he is cursed with one of the harder rushing schedules, his grit and skill make him a safe play, regardless of his competition's dossier. With little-to-no depth at the position behind him, the only question facing Willis will be if he can stand up to a full 16 games of steady pounding.
McGahee is a very safe early-to-mid second round selection, but be careful not to jump on him to quickly, as you'll be hard-pressed to pick one of his backups later in the draft to protect your investment. Let that be another of your league's owner's problems, not yours, but don't hesitate on him if he's still there with your second pick in the draft.
(1,185/53, 409/14)
8) Julius Jones, Cowboys (11)
While this may be a wee bit high for Julius, his talent shined brightly once he shook an early rash of injuries. The Tuna loves hammering his backs with heavy workloads, which is a big red-flag for a relatively injury-prone young halfback, but it should be noted that he more than handled just such a task throughout the second half of the season a year ago. Jones should also be able to contribute in the passing game, assuming that Drew Bledsoe stays upright long enough to get him the ball.
The one major drawback of a player like Jones is the possibility that his veteran coach will spare him some abuse inside the five-yard line, which would cut into Jones' touchdown potential. Still, if you can manage to make Jones your number two running back by picking him late in round two or early in round three, you're in very good shape and shouldn't waste a minute thinking about the selection.
(1,337/24, 188/13)
9) Ahman Green, Packers (29)
Green is clearly not the slam dunk pick he would have been two or three years ago, but he is still a multi-skilled weapon who should not be ignored. Eventually, the promising Najeh Davenport will cut into his workload, but that day has not yet come and, despite playing a brutal array of run-stuffing defenses, you could do much worse than Ahman Green. Again, recent history suggests that he will be used less and less inside the 10-yard line, but he is still a worthy of a second round choice.
(1,159/47, 365/8)
10) Corey Dillon, Patriots (24)
Dillon had somewhat of a rebirth last season in New England, and nothing that has transpired since February's title game indicates that this trend will not continue. The Pats will be business as usual, making Dillon the beneficiary of a dozen or so goal line opportunities and a valuable asset guaranteed to see plenty of action regardless of field position. Dillon's value is somewhat tempered by his aging body, which did show signs of breaking down at times last year, and his lack of value in the passing game, but he is tough and is playing with a passion that was missing in Cincinnati, which makes him a great second-round option.
(1,462/13, 99/12)
11) Steven Jackson, Rams (4)
Steven Jackson is one year away from being near or at the top of this list. His value is hurt by the presence of Marshall Faulk, who, even at this advanced stage in his career, will still command 5-10 carries a game and will also cut into Jackson's field time in third-down situations. The Rams have a relatively easy strength of schedule and even Mike Martz addiction to the pass shouldn't be able to damage Jackson's second-round value.
(1,350/51, 393/10)
12) Edgerrin James, Colts (15)
As strange as it is to say, Peyton Manning's brilliance actually lessons the value of Edge. James has not been the medium Tony Dungy has preferred for turning short yardage opportunities into points. This likely won't change, making James the least valuable 2,000-yard player in the history of football. For this reason, I recommend no earlier than a late second- or early third-round pick on James, which pretty much means some other poor schlub will snatch him up early and kick themselves later as they watch Peyton throw for his two- and three-yard scores.
(1,394/57, 444/7)
13) Michael Bennett, Vikings (9)
This talented Viking runner has never really been fully healthy, which is somewhat scary considering the aggregate numbers he's been able to manage on gimpy legs. If Bennett does, as advertised, emerge as the benefactor in Minnesota's running game, he should produce nicely. But, as is the case with James in Indianapolis, Bennett will almost certainly be pulled as his team approaches paydirt. For this reason, I'd slate him as no better than an early third-round choice.
(1,289/43, 336/9)
14) Deuce McAllister, Saints (26)
Another somewhat surprisingly low-ranker, McAllister has struggled to remain consistent. Speaking from experience, he has quickly become one of the most frustrating plays in fantasy football. As such, my advice would be to keep him off your chart unless he falls to round three, especially since Antowain Smith stands to take some of the short yardage carries from him.
(1,211/61, 473/8)
15) Brian Westbrook, Eagles (7)
A wide receiver trapped in a running back's body, Westbrook is more of a hybrid than any other player on this list. He regularly will lineup as a wide out in the Philly offense, which makes him a risky play at running back. Correll Buckhalter's health will ultimately play a key role in Westrbook's value, as the oft-injured Buckhalter is clearly a better runner than Brian. Still, 70-plus receptions is a nice insurance policy to have in your running back and even if he splits time, he's still good for 10-15 carries a game and 60 or so yards in addition to his contributions as a receiver. Solid third-rounder.
(797/83, 650/10)
16) Rudi Johnson, Bengals (17)
For all the players on this list that startled me when I started assessing their projected value, no player's slotting befuddled me more than that of the powerful Bengals runner. The Bengals look to have a very productive offense and Johnson is a cinch inside the five-yard line. However, second-year man Chris Perry will certainly get some action this season, cutting into Johnson's opportunities and third downs should belong to the versatile Kenny Watson. I like Johnson a great deal and would likely reach for him in round two, but to stay true to my rankings, I'd call him a firm third-round choice.
(1,296/9, 71/11)
17) Kevin Jones, Lions (20)
Another of the emerging players at his position, Kevin should have no problem keeping up with the other Joneses on this list (namely Julius). His value falters a bit as his wide out teammates Mike and Roy Williams stand to see plenty of opportunities in the red zone, but Jones is still a very solid third round prospect.
(1,226/23, 177/10)
18) Clinton Portis, Redskins (13)
I can't stress enough how sure I am of this slotting. It may seem low, but Washington's offense is a mess and Portis stands to either a) take an unholy beating and get hurt by midseason; or b) gain lots of yards, but not get many valuable scoring opportunities. Either way, let him be someone else's headache. Third-rounder on my list, but he'll go much earlier in most leagues.
(1,365/28, 221/7)
19) DeShaun Foster, Panthers (22)
Foster has frequented the injury list on every level he's ever played. That won't change anytime soon. Very good when healthy, but rarely healthy. An easy choice to make if he's still around in round four, but if you already have a couple of backs, pass on him.
(997/43, 336/7)
20) J.J. Arrington, Cardinals (2)
A player that would be much higher if he wasn't a rookie, Arrington is almost sure to beat out Marcel Shipp as Arizona's primary ball-carrier. Should be very productive, but will likely not be thrust into too many goal line situations until he gets his feet planted in the NFL, so his touchdown numbers will suffer. Still, if he's around in round four, well worth the risk.
(1,381/37, 289/3)
21) Curtis Martin, Jets (32)
A solid character and as good a back as I've seen in my lifetime, but time is short for this horse and he will soon be put out to stud (not bad work, if you can get it). Last season will look more and more like his last hurrah as this year rolls on, especially when you glance through their schedule. Take him if he's still around in round four or five, but anything earlier would be on the short end of the risk vs. reward spectrum.
(974/24, 186/9)
22) Kevan Barlow, 49ers (3)
A riddle wrapped inside a mystery located firmly within an enigma. Finally got his shot to be "the man" last season and promptly fell flat on his face. New management in San Fran may be just what the doctor ordered, so don't rule him out. A better bet would be to pray that the others in your league didn't read this article so you can snatch him up in round five, because with his schedule, he may flourish.
(1,033/34, 265/8)
23) Warrick Dunn, Falcons (16)
The touchdown numbers from last year are somewhat of an apparition, so don't be fooled into grabbing him early. T.J. Duckett was hurt and didn't get the goal line carries one would have expected, and this stands to change in 2005. Still, you could do much worse in rounds five or six than the diminutive Falcon starter.
(1,000/34, 266/7)
24) Lamont Jordan, Raiders (25)
Oakland's revamped passing attack should work nicely in Lamont's favor. Jordan is a very talented runner who has ached for this opportunity, and don't expect him to disappoint, but Zach Crockett and Amos Zereoue are still wearing silver and black, so you have to expect Jordan to lose out on third down and goal line duties. Round six would be a perfect time to pick up the unproven Jordan.
(1,061/46, 356/5)
25) Travis Henry, Titans (8)
With the recent acquisition of Henry, Chris Brown should slide down a rung on the depth chart. Henry will score the bulk of Tennessee's rushing touchdowns, which may be a relatively small number, but still is a very real advantage. Take him in round six, and look to grab Brown later on for insurance.
(1,024/10, 75/9)
26) Ronnie Brown, Dolphins (18)
Let's set the record straight once and for all. Brown didn't lose carries to Carnell Williams in college, it was the other way around. Like Westbrook, Brown is a gifted receiver and should see plenty of action split out wide in multiple receiver sets. Also like Westbrook, Ronnie should eventually lose short yardage opportunities to a better pure runner, in this case the wayward Ricky Williams. Still, Brown will be very productive and is well worth a sixth-round choice.
(825/54, 418/7)
27) Carnell Williams, Buccaneers (23)
Gruden loves this rookie, as well he should, but Tampa lacks the offensive fortitude to really pump up any prospective numbers for Cadillac. Still, assuming he wins the starting gig, Williams merits late sixth- or early seventh-round consideration.
(970/38, 295/7)
28) Cedric Benson, Bears (12)
The fourth of the premier running backs selected in this spring's draft, Benson perhaps has the toughest road to hoe. Ced should get ample opportunity to be the goal line back (which in Chicago, may or may not be a strong point), but Thomas Jones is a solid guy to have pushing you, and, in the end, this may be more of a platoon situation than any fantasy owner would like. Benson should be no higher than a seventh-round choice.
(1,116/16, 128/7)
29) Fred Taylor, Jaguars (1)
How could the starting running back that has the easiest rushing strength of schedule just barely crack the top 30? I told you, my ranking factors in games played — and there it is. Taylor is to the injured list what your local mailperson is to your mailbox — certain to fill it. Personally, following my risk vs. reward theory of fantasy football, I'd take Fred a bit earlier, but round seven will be where his stats place him come season's end, barring a miracle, so that's where I rank him.
(1,158/41, 321/3)
30) Jerome Bettis, Steelers (19)
The one major anomaly on this list, Bettis is a certain backup runner who is worthy of higher consideration than his starting counterpart (Duce Staley). Why? If you need to ask, you need more than this list if you have any visions of fantasy football championships in your near future. Look to grab The Bus in round eight.
(562/5, 40/11)
31) Larry Johnson, Chiefs (30)
See Priest Holmes. If you have Priest, you'd better reach into round six and take Johnson. If not, he's worthy of no higher than ninth-round consideration — unless you're a jerk and want to screw over your buddy who drafted Holmes.
(582/35, 269/9)
32) Marshall Faulk, Rams (4)
Sadly, the curtain is beginning to close on Marshall's brilliant career. Statistically speaking, this year will almost certainly be the last in terms of Faulk's steady contribution to his team. Unless you're a Jackson owner, taking Faulk any earlier than round nine is little more than wishful thinking.
(632/66, 512/4)
33) Tatum Bell, Broncos (31)
While I still contend that Mike Anderson, Quentin Griffin, and Maurice Clarrett will cut into Bell's production considerably, I can hardly justify having no Broncos back in the top 35 and Bell has the most upside. Look for Bell right around the ninth round — Denver's schedule is second hardest in football and Tatum has little shot of inheriting the goal line carries.
(908/8, 65/6)
34) T.J. Duckett, Falcons (16)
Part three of the "DVD" combination Atlanta rode to the team rushing title last season, Duckett is a horse who is faster than he looks, but less powerful than his size would indicate. Still, T.J. is a solid play and should be considered in or around the tenth stanza in any draft.
(614/10, 77/9)
35) Duce Staley, Steelers (19)
My projections have Staley gaining a 1,000 yards this season. But they also have him scoring one measly touchdown (thanks a bunch, Jerome). While I'm fully convinced Bill Cowher is a career fantasy owner of Bettis in a touchdown-only league, there isn't much we can do other than to hold off on drafting Staley until very late in the draft.
(1,119/26, 199/1)
36) Ricky Williams, Dolphins (18)
Ricky may move way up this list once his role (and, more importantly, his commitment and conditioning) is more clearly defined. He was a proven producer prior to his sojourn across the Australian Outback and, if he proves to be ready to play, will be a valuable touchdown threat on a team that stands to see several more opportunities to score this season. Watch Williams closely, but as of the writing of this article, he's a solid 13th-rounder.
(565/12, 93/8)
37) Correll Buckhalter, Eagles (7)
Westbrook's running mate in Philly could be a very nice steal for your team, if you play your cards right. Coming off an injury, Correll is likely flying beneath most prospective owner's radars. He stands to handle the bulk of the Eagles carries and should comfortably 40-50 yards a game on average. Look to grab Buckhalter as you near the 14th or 15th rounds, and grab him even earlier if you drafted Westbrook.
(825/27, 207/4)
38) Chris Brown, Titans (8)
Brown showed he could be productive last season as a rookie. He also showed that he could not be counted on to stay healthy or gain the tough yards. Alas, the ownership added Travis Henry, who will almost certainly, at a minimum, hose any ideas prospective Brown owners had of Chris having any touchdown value whatsoever. Snatch up brown late in the draft, unless you drafted Henry, in which case you may want to look for Brown in the 11th- or 12th-round for insurance.
(962/19, 147/3)
39) Thomas Jones, Bears (12)
Another backup who has some question marks surrounding his playing time, Jones may ultimately wind up the starter in Chicago. If he does, jump on him around round six or seven, but if the status quo remains as it is now and if Benson gets in camp sooner rather than later, wait around a bit and snag the versatile veteran in the late rounds.
(455/57, 441/4)
40) Rueben Droughns, Browns (28)
Another that is getting the benefit of the doubt in terms of his starting status, Droughns showed last season that he is an effective between the tackles guy and a solid fantasy football option. Still, William Green and Lee Suggs will almost certainly cut into his playing time, but Droughns stands to get the touchdown opportunities in close, though these will be limited on the sad sack Cleveland team with a rough schedule. No better than a late round pick.
(641/25, 191/5)
***
Depending on league formats, the number of running backs carried on a roster varies greatly. My rule of thumb, though, regardless of format, is to be sure your number one guy is someone you are very comfortable with. Beyond that, you can take some high risk vs. reward guys, but be sure that you don't have a team full of such players.
My draft netted me Priest Holmes (and yes, I did also snatch up Larry Johnson), Kevan Barlow (grabbed his rookie backup, Frank Gore), and The Bus, along with Marshall Faulk. Not the best of selections, but true to my strategy of picking a sure bet (Holmes) and a hunch (Barlow) and a couple of players that may wind up being steals (Faulk and Bettis).
Having stability at running back is paramount to your team's success. The best thing you can do is watch the preseason diligently, as injuries are a real factor at this position. Don't be afraid to reach for your primary runners' backups, keeping in mind the goal is to be able to field at least two serviceable backs in any given week.
Don't miss the QB ratings. Stay tuned as Matt Thomas brings you more fantasy forecasts!
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