Tuesday, November 1, 2005
NFL Week 8 Power Rankings
Five Quick Hits
* Three cheers for referee Peter Morelli, who took under a minute to uphold the call on a replay challenge Monday night, for putting the "instant" back in replay.
* There is no way Charlie Weis is going to coach Notre Dame for the next 10 years. You heard it here first.
* Late in the first quarter, with the ball at his own 2½-yard-line, Donovan McNabb called timeout with the play clock running down. The delay of game would've been a one, one-and-a-half-yard penalty. Save your timeouts.
* The loser of Sunday night's Washington/Philadelphia game will miss the playoffs.
* I hate jersey-popping. Paying $70 for a t-shirt makes you a chump, not a badass.
***
Hall of Fame nominees were announced this week, and it's another great class. We're going to have really strong groups up through the end of the decade, because it's going to take years to get all of these guys in. Twenty-five nominees will advance to a second round of voting, then that group of 25 will be narrowed to 13 finalists joining the two seniors nominees (not yet announced). A maximum of six players can be enshrined.
This year's list has one mortal lock — defensive lineman Reggie White — and a few players who are pretty close to the same: Troy Aikman, Warren Moon, and Thurman Thomas. Aikman is overrated, and I wouldn't vote for him, but he's clearly going in. Moon will be the first black quarterback in the Hall, and he's deserving. Thomas is a no-brainer, but he could have trouble this year because QB is a more glamorous position. On the other hand, some voters don't like to take more than one player from a given position, and Aikman and Moon could steal some votes from each other. If any of those guys don't get in this year, they'll make it one or two years down the line.
Narrowing the list to 25 was painful — this year's nominees are great — but here are my choices: Aikman, Moon, Thomas, Herschel Walker, Michael Irvin, Art Monk, Andre Reed, Todd Christiansen, Ben Coates, Dermontti Dawson, Russ Grimm, Joe Jacoby, Bob Kuechenberg, Chris Doleman, Reggie White, Harry Carson, Randy Gradishar, Derrick Thomas, Kevin Greene, Steve Atwater, Lester Hayes, Roger Wehrli, Ray Guy, Don Coryell, George Young.
There are other candidates, particularly those listed as contributors, who I'd support in less competitive years, but not this time around. If I could send four of these guys in to the class of 2006, I'd vote for Moon, Thurman Thomas, Monk, and White. Carson, Coryell, and the offensive linemen and DBs would be next on my list, not necessarily in that order.
Back to the present and the power rankings, brackets show last week's rank.
1. Indianapolis Colts [1] — I am terrified of this, and actually considered flipping a coin, but I pick the Colts to win at New England next Monday night. I know, fool me once and all that, but this year's Patriots aren't going 14-2. Also, apparently I'm just a sucker.
2. Denver Broncos [3] — Look at the schedule they've played. Seven games in a row against teams at or above .500. In fact, the only .500 team is the Chargers, who are significantly better than their record indicates. If there's a point of concern, it might be whether the Broncos can win on the road (they're 1-2 right now), but barring a major collapse, Denver will win the AFC West with room to spare.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers [2] — Blame the crowd. On that muffed punt attempt, the Steelers' fans were roaring, and players couldn't hear each other: it was like third-and-long on the road. The result was miscommunication, an early snap, a fumble, and a field goal that gave Baltimore the lead with 3:27 to play. On Pittsburgh's next drive, Ben Roethlisberger had to quiet the crowd when the Steelers were trying to run a play.
4. San Diego Chargers [5] — The worst schedule in the league this year. Seven of their eight games so far have been against teams with winning records (combined 36-22), including two trips to the East Coast, three games against teams coming off the bye, and this week's game against Kansas City, which had two extra days. The remaining schedule presents another bye-week opponent, two more trips across the country, and games against my top two teams. It's early to be forecasting for the playoffs, but it isn't unreasonable to guess that Cincinnati and Jacksonville could grab the wildcards and leave San Diego home in January.
5. Seattle Seahawks [6] — Other than the top three, teams at the top aren't really asserting themselves this season, and this is the result. I felt uneasy with Seattle as high as sixth last week, and now they're fifth without having played another game. What's more, this is just as St. Louis seems to be on the verge of a run that could put the NFC West into question again.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars [4] — Gave up a season-high 24 points against the Rams, including 179 on the ground to Steven Jackson. The Jaguars can get themselves right over the next five weeks, with opponents whose combined record is 9-27. Jacksonville's schedule from this point on is cake, with only one game (out of nine) against a team above 2-5.
7. New York Giants [15] — I have the utmost respect for Wellington Mara, and the NFL is better for his participation and love of the game. That does not mean, however, that I believe "emotion" and desire to win for Mr. Mara were behind New York's decisive victory this weekend. The Giants are a good team, and Washington didn't show up.
8. Atlanta Falcons [7] — The bye week came at a good time. Atlanta has suffered some important injuries, particularly on defense, and the extra week should give them time to heal. Also, maybe Michael Vick used the extra time to learn how to pass.
9. New England Patriots [8] — If you watch even half as much football as I do, you're really sick of hearing the same sound bytes about Tedy Bruschi over and over. One more week, and then I think they'll quiet down. Incidentally, I believe that Bruschi helped New England this weekend just as much as I believe that Mara helped the Giants.
10. Dallas Cowboys [13] — Probably should be ranked ahead of New England, but I've already picked the Pats to lose to Indianapolis, and I don't want to seem too stupid when they win. Dallas put together a nice win this weekend, but I think the team may struggle down the stretch. Many key players are over 30, and Drew Bledsoe in particular has struggled late in the season.
11. Washington Redskins [10] — Nauseatingly bad in every phase of the game. They got dominated on the line, the quarterbacking was terrible, the receivers dropped passes, the defense wasn't tackling, and the coaching was awful. Maybe Joe Gibbs should have spent less time hyping up the 49ers and more getting his team to respect the Giants. My local FOX affiliate, which — as longtime readers know — hates football fans, stuck with this game until the bitter end, even missing the beginning of Eagles/Broncos.
12. Philadelphia Eagles [9] — McNabb started the game 0-for-12 with an interception. I'm beginning to get the feeling that Andy Reid continues to call a disproportionate number of pass plays more out of stubbornness than for the good of his team. Everyone says we should run the ball, but I'll show them — 11 passes in the first 13 plays, even if we are getting slaughtered with it! That attitude didn't work too well for Mike Martz, either.
13. Kansas City Chiefs [14] — For years, the offensive line has been the strength of this team. This season, it remains among the league's best, but it isn't dominating games the way it did the last few years. On the other side of the ball, KC's run defense has clearly improved, but they looked awful on Sunday when Drew Brees threw. Especially when Antonio Gates caught.
14. Cincinnati Bengals [11] — Chad Johnson's productivity has dropped off the last couple of weeks, leading me to wonder if he should spend less time coming up with dances and sound bytes, and more time preparing for football games. If the Bengals had only intercepted three passes against Green Bay, the Packers probably would have won. Getting big plays is great, but relying on them is dangerous, because sometimes they're not going to be there, and "sometimes" happens a lot in the playoffs.
15. Carolina Panthers [16] — I don't know if it's lack of faith in guys like Keary Colbert, but Jake Delhomme locks in on one receiver and stays with him. Last year, it was Muhsin Muhammad. This season, it's Steve Smith. Take that one guy away and Delhomme may never pass the ball. Stephen Davis has averaged under three yards per carry in five consecutive games.
16. Oakland Raiders [19] — With Randy Moss gimpy, they're 2-0 and averaging 36 points a game. Don't believe the hype — the Raiders aren't going anywhere this season — but this is a pretty good team, and Norv Turner and Al Davis have to like the base they have in place for next season.
17. St. Louis Rams [23] — With the Rams playing great for Joe Vitt and Jackson looking like the RB of the future, the focus should not be on Mike Martz. But Martz, probably the pettiest coach the NFL has ever seen, won't go away, demanding attention and sympathy — not for his health problems, but for the way the Rams organization has treated him. News flash: Martz is a terrible head coach, an untrustworthy partner in a team, a public relations misstep, and so quirky as to verge on another word that is much less kind. I wouldn't want in him my organization even as offensive coordinator, but if anyone hires him as head coach, that team will regret it. Take it to the bank.
18. Chicago Bears [18] — The Bears are winning with defense and Thomas Jones (in that order), but rookie QB Kyle Orton is coming around, too. In the last month, he has five TDs and only one interception, with a passer rating of 84.3. He's taking too many sacks, but in his only sackless game this year, Orton threw five picks. Rookies make mistakes, and the good ones learn to take sacks instead of turning the ball over. Orton is showing real promise.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [12] — Last week, San Francisco couldn't stop Washington even in the fourth quarter, when the Niners knew what play was coming. This week, against the same defense, Chris Simms had three turnovers and the Bucs' RBs averaged under 1.5 yards per carry. Tampa's much-lauded defense, meanwhile, kept the 49ers out of the end zone, but had no sacks and no turnovers, and allowed San Francisco its first 100-yard rusher of the season.
20. Buffalo Bills [20] — ESPN managed to run Suzy Kolber's pointless interviews with Bruschi and Robert Kraft over Aaron Schobel's sack of Tom Brady and subsequent fumble recovery, and Rosevelt Colvin's equalizer against Kelly Holcomb. That makes FOX look good.
21. Detroit Lions [17] — NFC North teams are 5-13 against non-division teams this season. Four of the wins came against either New Orleans or Baltimore, and the other was Detroit over Cleveland. The Lions have the best non-division record, at 2-2, and their win against the Browns represents the North's only non-division road win this season.
22. Miami Dolphins [21] — Established the running game, controlled the clock, repeatedly put Aaron Brooks on the ground, and picked up their first road win of the 2005 season. Playing the Saints gets everyone right.
23. Baltimore Ravens [22] — The good news is that playing on the road, they were down to six penalties. The bad news is that, playing about as well as the team could, it still lost. The Ravens came out totally hyped for this one, caught the Steelers on an off night, and still couldn't close the deal.
24. Arizona Cardinals [24] — The bottom nine teams are relatively equal, and the only ones that won this week were Houston and San Francisco, so I'm not changing anyone's ranking. Don't be surprised by big movers in this area next week. I had a dream last Tuesday that the Cardinals started Kurt Warner. I think they should stick with Josh McCown the rest of the season and find out if he can take them anywhere.
25. New Orleans Saints [25] — Any time your quarterback is the leading rusher, and you're not the Atlanta Falcons, that's bad. The Saints played in their seventh different stadium of the season this week.
26. Tennessee Titans [26] — Chris Brown has picked things up over the last month, and he's quietly turning in a pretty solid season. The receiving corps doesn't have playmakers, though, and the defense stinks.
27. Cleveland Browns [27] — Out-rushed the Texans, averaged almost five yards a carry, and still lost, basically on fumbles. After opening 2-2, the Browns have dropped three consecutive games, all winnable. I really thought Romeo Crennel would have the Browns fired up to beat Houston, and the upset talk was just talk, but lo and behold. That's why I don't predict individual games in this column very often. I'm not sure why I'm even admitting this one.
28. Minnesota Vikings [28] — Daunte Culpepper is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but his injury can only help the team at this point. The Vikings aren't going to get any worse, and the steady hand of Brad Johnson could actually do some good at this point.
29. New York Jets [29] — This is the one team in the bottom quarter of the rankings that should probably rise, and it didn't even play this weekend. It's reasonable to guess, though, that the Jets used the bye week to sort out some of their problems on the offensive line, plus Curtis Martin got some time to get healthy, and we're a week closer to the return of Jay Fiedler. On the other hand, a quick glance at their upcoming schedule really crushes any potential optimism.
30. Green Bay Packers [30] — Did a pretty nice job defensively, and the offense made lemonade out of Antonio Chatman (8 receptions, 97 yards) and Bubba Franks (season-high 7 catches for 62 yards and a touchdown). Unfortunately, it's hard to win when you throw five interceptions. And what is up with Brett Favre throwing from beyond the line of scrimmage? Is this becoming a habit?
31. Houston Texans [31] — Making the race for first pick in the draft interesting.
32. San Francisco 49ers [32] — Only really bad teams stay in last place after a win. Sunday's game marked the first time since September 25 that San Francisco didn't lose by 17 or more.