NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Giants MLB Chase Blackburn was carted off the field in Washington with what turned out to be a sprained neck. The thumbs up players give from that cart is perhaps the most relieving sight in all of sports.

* Jay Glazer of FOX Sports reported this week that this will be Dick Vermeil's last season coaching the Chiefs. Here's hoping it isn't true.

* Jim Nantz and Phil Simms completely missed a strange phenomenon in the third quarter, when Bobby Engram and D.J. Hackett were called for false starts on the same drive. Wide receivers should never have false starts.

* Roseanne may be the most underrated show in the history of television.

* Pro Bowl teams were announced this week. The biggest head-scratchers were two OTs, Jon Ogden and Chris Samuels. Ogden used to be the best, but he's slipped this year, and Samuels hasn't been Pro Bowl caliber for years.

***

There's been a lot of discussion already about the death of James Dungy, and I don't have the eloquence to add anything substantive to the discussion, but I would like to use this space — which for the last two seasons has frequently involved discussion of Tony Dungy's Colts — to wish my best to the Dungy family and to all those who knew James Dungy.

Also, a round of applause for the Seahawks fans who brought signs supporting the Colts and their coach, and especially to the Buccaneers fan who brought a sign that read, "Tampa Loves the Dungys." Tony Dungy and his family remain an important part of that community, and it was nice to see that the fans haven't forgotten them.

On to the power rankings. Brackets, as always, show last week's rank.

1. Indianapolis Colts [1] — Pro Bowl teams were announced this week, and the biggest snub has got to be Indianapolis OT Tarik Glenn. Not only was Glenn arguably the AFC's best offensive tackle this season, but the league called and told him that he had made the team, only to call back later that day and tell him he hadn't. That's cold. The Colts won't go 100% in Week 17, which technically means I should move them out of first place, but my "right now" policy only goes so far, so they stay on top.

2. New England Patriots [2] — A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that all-pro defensive lineman Richard Seymour "doesn't seem 100%." In Week 16 against the Jets, though, he looked pretty close to it. The Pats have won each of their last four games by double-digits, a combined 110-31.

3. Seattle Seahawks [3] — Shaun Alexander scored three TDs against the Colts, tying the NFL's single-season touchdown record. Alexander is a great player with a tremendous nose for the end zone, but does anyone else miss the days when records lasted more than two years? It's hard to get excited about an all-time record that's been tied or broken four times in the last decade.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers [8] — Peaking at the right time. The Steelers sacked Charlie Frye eight times on Sunday, including three by Joey Porter. No one, including their probable first-round playoff opponent, the Bengals, wants to meet this team in the postseason. Pittsburgh has won its last three games — against teams with a combined record above .500, and two of them on the road — by an average of 27-4.

5. Denver Broncos [7] — Two solid wins since their three-game slump, in which Denver needed overtime to beat the Cowboys, lost at Kansas City, and barely beat the Ravens at home. The Broncos are one of only two teams to go undefeated at home this year (Seattle is the other). Rod Smith, who this year will lead the team in receiving yards for the ninth consecutive time, was voted to his third Pro Bowl this week. Not bad for a guy who wasn't drafted.

6. Chicago Bears [9] — While their 24-17 win over the Packers wasn't as close as the score makes it seem, Chicago basically won the game on turnovers. Rex Grossman completed under half his passes, but moved the ball and gave the offense a sense of life. The Bears, who are 4-3 on the road pending this week's trip to Minnesota, are going to get wrecked if they have to go to Seattle for the NFC Championship Game.

7. Cincinnati Bengals [4] — It might be reasonable to excuse their loss to Buffalo as a fluke, but the game was in Cincinnati. The Bills, prior to this contest, were 0-6 on the road and had been outscored 78-169, making them arguably the league's worst road team. The Bengals should have won in their sleep.

8. Washington Redskins [13] — If Joe Gibbs retires in the next few years, Greg Blache will be the next head coach of this team. Either that, or Dan Snyder will offer the ghost of Vince Lombardi $10 million per year and get him. I can't see Washington losing at Philly on New Year's Day, but Mark Brunell's injury is cause for concern.

9. New York Giants [5] — Defense is ranked 22nd. The NFC's other playoff contenders are 1st, 2nd, 4th, 7th, 11th, and 15th. Not that anyone but Seattle looks great in the NFC playoffs, but the Giants have lots of reasons for pessimism. The aforementioned defense is one, and their unreliable quarterback is another. Their first-round opponent could be Washington, who just beat them by two touchdowns. And if they get past the first round, they have to go on the road, where they're 2-4. The NFC East is probably the strongest division in the conference, but none of its teams has a winning record on the road.

10. Kansas City Chiefs [12] — Looking for a strange fantasy football tip? Do not draft Larry Johnson next season. In the eight games since he became starter, Larry Johnson has averaged 29.4 rushes per game. That is way too many. I said the same thing about Julius Jones last year, and Cadillac Williams at the beginning of this season. No player can stay healthy with that kind of workload. If you play in a keeper league, trade Johnson now while his stock is at its peak.

11. San Diego Chargers [6] — The fifth through 11th spots are really tight this week, and I had them eighth when I started to write this entry. On paper, that's probably about right, but the Chargers just can't seem to close games. Also, LaDainian Tomlinson has slowed down in a big way. In the last four games, he hasn't rushed for 100 yards, averaged four yards a carry, or scored a touchdown.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [10] — Posted their highest point total since the last time they played Atlanta, piling up 444 yards and 30 first downs. All the stars who were down last week stepped up this time. Ronde Barber led the team with 12 tackles. Derrick Brooks had six tackles and a sack. Simeon Rice added two more sacks, and Williams rushed for 150 yards and a touchdown.

13. Carolina Panthers [11] — Two losses in their last three games, and they allowed 194 yards to Julius Jones, who hadn't hit 100 this season. This team lost its identity at the beginning of the season, when DT Kris Jenkins got hurt and the offense realized its running game was ineffective.

14. Dallas Cowboys [15] — The last five games have all been against winning teams (combined 50-25), and the Cowboys have gone 2-3 in that stretch, leaving them alive for a playoff spot if Philadelphia's offense stops sucking long enough to beat Washington. Rookie pass-rusher DeMarcus Ware had a huge game against Carolina, with three sacks and three forced fumbles.

15. Miami Dolphins [14] — Their five-game winning streak is the longest in the AFC, and second only to Seattle overall. Ricky Williams carried the offense against Tennessee, gaining 172 yards on 26 carries.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars [17] — Clinched the AFC's top wildcard by beating Houston. Byron Leftwich has been cleared to play in Week 17, but Jack Del Río should probably hold him out for one more week to make sure he's healthy in the playoffs. There's another school of thought that says you want to get Leftwich used to game action again, but I'd give David Garrard one more week at the controls.

17. Atlanta Falcons [18] — I seldom say that coaches should be fired, and I'm a big advocate of giving a coach at least three years to prove himself, but if I were Arthur Blank, I would replace Jim Mora, Jr. On top of the problems I outlined last week, Michael Vick is taking on his coach's weaknesses. Vick has had about a dozen cranky press conferences this season, being defensive and whining about what other people think. Vick could probably benefit from the counsel of someone like Bill Belichick or Tony Dungy, whose players take care of their own business and don't waste a lot of energy worrying about what other people think. Belichick and Dungy aren't available, but other level-headed coaches are, and Little Mora is too concerned with being his players' friend, at the expense of being a good leader.

18. Minnesota Vikings [16] — Eliminated from playoff contention. Minnesota's .325 strength of victory, padded against NFC North softies Detroit and Green Bay, is the lowest of any team with more than six wins.

19. Baltimore Ravens [21] — Two consecutive weeks with at least 30 points after going the first 13 games without reaching that mark. The Ravens improved to 6-2 at home this season, a record that includes a Week 1 loss to the Colts.

20. Philadelphia Eagles [20] — If they lose to Washington, they'll drop to 0-6 in the division, after sweeping it last year. Mike McMahon has been remarkably ineffective as a passer, and against Arizona, the defense made Josh McCown look like Jim Hart. Maybe that's a little dated, but you have to really go back to find a Cardinals quarterback who was good. I guess Neil Lomax was available, but it's too late now.

21. Cleveland Browns [19] — There's not much to say after a 41-0 whipping at home against your biggest rival.

22. Buffalo Bills [24] — If J.P. Losman ever comes around, the Bills could be a team to watch next season. With Takeo Spikes returning from injury, Lee Evans emerging as a deep threat, and a potential top-10 draft pick, Buffalo could be one or two big moves from building a playoff contender.

23. Arizona Cardinals [27] — McCown is 3-2 as the starting quarterback this season. Kurt Warner is 2-8.

24. Oakland Raiders [22] — Four games in a row with 10 points or fewer. I know Randy Moss hasn't been 100%, but wasn't this supposed to be an offensive juggernaut? Kerry Collins throwing to Moss and Jerry Porter, Lamont Jordan running behind Robert Gallery, an improved defense setting the table? More dispiriting than the team's 4-11 record is that it has played its worst football in the last month, losing by a combined 30-91 to teams with a collective losing record. If you're going to get blown out, it shouldn't be by teams like the Jets.

25. St. Louis Rams [23] — The ground game stuttered against San Francisco's suffocating run defense, with just 44 yards and 2.1 per attempt. The Rams, who have lost four in a row and haven't beaten anyone but Houston in two months, are tied for the NFC West's second-best record. Seattle has as many wins as the division's other three teams combined.

26. Tennessee Titans [25] — Steve McNair's injury is the latest in a long line, both for the team and for himself. Billy Volek had a nice performance in relief of McNair, and it will be interesting to see how the franchise handles Volek this offseason.

27. Detroit Lions [30] — Dick Jauron got his first win as interim head coach of the Lions, on the strength of good games from Roy Williams, who had more than half of Detroit's receiving yards, and James Hall, who had a sack, two forced fumbles, and a team-high six tackles, all solo. The Lions have gone six games in a row without scoring 20 points.

28. New York Jets [26] — In two meetings with New England this year, the Jets' total time of possession was 38:29. The Patriots' was 81:31. Remarkably, New York isn't last in the NFL in this category (San Francisco is). The Jets also are not last in rushing yardage, but they're 31st, a far cry from last season, when Curtis Martin led the NFL. The fans' third-quarter chants of "Reg-gie" (referring to USC star Reggie Bush, who will likely be the first pick in next April's draft) give you a pretty good idea of how this season has gone.

29. Green Bay Packers [29] — This has been a catastrophic season for Green Bay, and it seems like the whole offense is injured, but it's hard to get around how poorly Brett Favre played on Sunday. Favre has gone six straight games without a passer rating of 80.0, and it seems like he's quickly gone from "still great but stuck on a bad team" to the kind of player who you sort of hope will retire before he's a shadow of his former self.

30. San Francisco 49ers [32] — Alex Smith got his first win as a pro, and also went without an interception for the first time as San Francisco's starting quarterback. If the Niners lose to Houston by nine or more, they will go under -200 in net points, becoming only the second team in the last five years to do so. They also have a shot at being the only team I have ever ranked in the 30s every week of an entire season.

31. Houston Texans [31] — We've been watching the sack record all season, but the 49ers would need to sack David Carr nine times, which probably isn't going to happen. With Reggie Bush on the line, though, the matchup could be genuinely suspenseful.

32. New Orleans Saints [28] — Ninth loss in their last 10 games. The Saints play their ninth and final road game of the 2005 season on New Year's Day in Tampa. It's likely to be Jim Haslett's last game with the team, and it will be interesting to see where he resurfaces. Several teams may look at him as a head coach, but I'd rather give a chance to a prospect, and teams interested in Haslett might be better served to think about him as a defensive coordinator.

Comments and Conversation

December 28, 2005

Rudy:

I would like to know how Seattle is not ranked 2nd or 1st. I might agree with Indianapolis possibly above Seattle although it would still be by a hair. But how in the world is New England power ranked above the Seahawks????? NO WAY!!!!!!

December 28, 2005

Jeff:

You must still be taking those crazy pills this week. Or maybe you live in Brockton and you’re biased. Either way, you can’t be in your right mind putting the Patriots at number two. The Patriots are one of the better teams in the AFC right now, but not just behind the Colts and certainly not ahead of the Seahawks. Sure they’ve won their last four by a combined 110-31, but look at their opposition. A win against an up-and-down Bucs team aside, they beat the Bills and the Jets twice. That’s far from worthy competition, and if you judge by just numbers and not the teams they play against, you should have had the Vikings in the top ten until two weeks ago.

Leave a Comment

Featured Site