Wednesday, January 18, 2006
Don’t Count Out Red Sox Just Yet
It seems like quite a few fans and media members are already writing off the 2006 Boston Red Sox.
I constantly keep hearing people say that they are a third-place team. Heck, I even heard one member of the Boston media say on sports radio's WEEI that they would win 74 games this year.
And while the Red Sox probably will open this season with more questions marks than they have had in years, it is a bit absurd to be making all of these doom and gloom predictions. The Red Sox have the potential to be very good, possibly even great this year.
Boston's lineup may not be as relentless as it was from 2003-2005, but they will still score a ton of runs. If Manny Ramirez returns — which appears more and more likely each — he and David Ortiz will combine for a 1-2 punch that can match any duo in baseball. These two last year totaled for 92 home runs while slugging .599. Jason Varitek can also hit, as he is coming off a season in which he hammered 22 home runs while posting an .856 OPS.
The rest of Boston's lineup features quite a few guys who can get on base. Newly-acquired second baseman Mark Loretta has had an on-base percentage of .372, .391, and .360 the last three years. First baseman Kevin Youkilis, in a small sample size, has gotten on-base at a .376 clip in his career. Right fielder Trot Nixon has a career OBP of .366. The wildcard here is newcomer Mike Lowell, who after five seasons of being an above-average hitter, had a horrific year last year. If he can bounce back, it will give the Red Sox a very productive bat at third base.
A lot has been made about the loss of Johnny Damon in center field. While the Red Sox may not be able to replace Damon's production, it's probably not as big of a loss as people think. Damon hit 10 home runs last year and got on base at a .366 clip — sold numbers, yes — but it's not as if this guy is putting up Albert Pujols-like production.
Edgar Renteria is no longer with Boston, which means they will not have to shell out $10 million a season to watch him make 30 errors while posting a .335 OBP.
On the pitching front, Boston has the potential to be much better. Their bullpen last year pitched 426 innings while posting a 5.15 ERA, which was worst in the league. Bullpens are very unpredictable, yes, but it's probably a safe bet to say that they will not be as bad this year.
Closer Keith Foulke was horrible in 2005, but if he is healthy, there is little reason to think he will not bounce back. Prior to last year, Foulke had eight seasons in a row in which he was an above-average reliever. With Mike Timlin, along with the additions of Guillermo Mota, Rudy Seanez, and Julian Tavarez, the Red Sox potentially have a very deep bullpen. At the very least it will likely be better than it was last year.
Curt Schilling is no lock to bounce back to his 2004 form, but I highly doubt many people expect another season of 93.3 innings of 5.69 ERA baseball. Newly-acquired Josh Beckett has yet to throw 200 innings, but six of the nine times he has landed on the DL were due to blister problems. If he can stay relatively healthy he is one of the best young pitchers in the game. Assuming none of the following get traded, the Red Sox still have Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield, David Wells, and Bronson Arroyo, all quality arms.
Those people writing off the Red Sox seem to forget that this team won 95 games last year, despite little production from Schilling and Foulke. If a few things go right for them this year, there is little reason to think they will not be championship contenders once again.