Suggesting as many do, that making the right decision at the NBA draft is an "imperfect science," is making an understatement at absolute best.
Over the years, I've discovered even the most adept general managers, ones that spend months or years watching players develop, still have absolutely no idea what they're doing.
And with the 2006 field emerging as one of the deepest, most convoluted in memory, they'll be even more clueless this time around.
What that means for the rest of us: writers, prognosticators, fans, and general know-it-alls, is we might as well be drawing names out of a hat. In the dark. Any attempts at "educated speculation" are certain to end in embarrassment.
No, while I do feel pressure to provide my faithful readers with a mock draft, I've decided to go forth promising to emphasize "speculation," rather than "educated," "mock" over "draft."
What follows are completely unfounded, indefensible projections based on nothing but my imagination set far enough in the future that you won't remember to make me feel bad about them.
Ladies and gentlemen, here it is: my 2006 NBA Mock Draft (lottery only, I don't have all day here, people).
1. Toronto Raptors: Andrea Bargnani, F, Italy
The first Italian national in the NBA will go first overall. Toronto, sick of hearing players from cultural hotbeds like Milwaukee and Charlotte complain about coming north of the border, start the Bryan Colangelo draft era by taking another step towards internationalizing its organization.
Bargnani comes in with high expectations, touted as the next Dirk Nowitzki because of his silky smooth jump shot. In his first season, he averages 4.6 points a game. Slow to develop the following years, he's eventually shipped off to San Antonio as a hopeful replacement for an aging Tim Duncan.
Two years later, the pair does indeed form a potent combination, going halfsies on several East Side Mario's in the south Texas area. Bargnani's sole job becomes managing the successful chain and he emerges as the tallest person ever to serve veal cannelloni.
Note: the Raptors try to trade down for Bargnani, but can't, and so instead deal Charlie Villanueva to clear space. Villanueva is inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2025.
2. Chicago Bulls: Tyrus Thomas, F, LSU
Making a move many if not most expected, the Bulls select the uber-athletic Thomas with the second pick. Unfortunately, just weeks into his first NBA training camp, Thomas collides with Tyson Chandler ,who's inexplicably trying to block the crap out of him during a lay-up drill. Thomas comes down awkwardly, ripping almost every ligament in his left leg. Chandler is vilified in the press to the point where an emotional breakdown forces him from the game.
Thomas battles back from the injury, but can't recapture his once-legendary leaping ability. He has an extremely mediocre eight-year career that concludes in Utah.
3. Charlotte Bobcats: Rudy Gay, G/F, Connecticut
Until LeBron gets a few more years of dominance and at least one ring, Michael Jordan is still the best in NBA history. But Isiah Thomas was one of the best point guards in league history, and is also one of the worst general managers.
Ditto for Jordan, who passes on Adam Morrison. Gay does become an all-star, but not for six seasons and not with the Bobcats. He's traded for Robert Swift and parts toward the end of his rookie contract and only gets the nod when Rashard Lewis breaks his leg a week before the 2013 festivities.
4. Portland Trail Blazers: Adam Morrison, F, Gonzaga
Morrison drops to fourth and is selected by Portland, sending much of the basketball-loving Pacific Northwest into hysterics. He wins rookie of the year and goes on to make seven all-star appearances in 11 seasons. And although he can't lead his club to the promised land and retires early due to complications from diabetes and a surgically repaired ankle, does becomes a local legend of somewhat Larry Bird-like proportions.
The image of him banging the ball against his forehead in frustrated excitement officially adorns the Oregon state flag.
5. Atlanta Hawks: LaMarcus Aldridge, F/C, Texas
Despite rumors the Hawks made a promise to Duke big man Shelden Williams at the five spot, the realization that Aldridge's potential is still on the board is too much for Atlanta brass to ignore. As it turns out, they would've done well either way and Aldridge quickly develops into the Chris Bosh clone many felt he might.
He lacks some of Bosh's offensive fluidity, however, and his inability to take a Hawks team rife with equally undeveloped players anywhere prevents him from becoming a fixture in Atlanta. Leaving after five years and signing a lucrative deal with the Dallas Mavericks, he manages to earn rings in 2013 and 2015.
Unfortunately, a short time later, his successful career is marred permanently due to a vicious run-in with management at an East Side Mario's in Texarkana.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves: Brandon Roy, G/F, Washington
Trying desperately to find a piece that actually works and sticks next to Kevin Garnett, the Wolves take Roy, whose prolific scoring in the 2006 NCAA tournament promised great things at the next level. In fact, it works out better than expected for the T-Wolves. Roy doesn't become a superstar, but makes three all-star appearances and is at times reminiscent of a mid-'90s Mitch Richmond. His durability also becomes legendary — he misses only 13 games in as many years in Minny.
Unfortunately, though, the Wolves deal Garnett in 2007, rendering Roy's long and impressive career with the club as frigid as a Minneapolis winter — yielding just three winning seasons.
7. Boston Celtics: Marcus Williams, G, Connecticut
Hide your laptops Beantown. And your gold watches. And your fillings.
But seriously folks, Marcus Williams is billed as the most complete point guard in the draft and the guy can do a lot. He does a lot for Boston, proving the decision not to select Patrick O'Bryant a smart one. He has career highs of 13.9 points and 7.4 assists alongside high flyer Gerald Green and big man Al Jefferson. Wally Szczerbiak is nowhere in sight.
In 2011, his best season, Williams is second in the league in helpers behind Luke Ridnour and leads the league in, ahem, steals.
8. Houston Rockets: Shelden Williams, F/C, Duke
Houston would've loved to get their hands on Thomas at this spot, but there was no way that was going to happen. So they take The Landlord in the hopes his rugged inside presence next to that of a healthy Yao Ming makes them impossible to contend with around the basket. Plus, somebody has to chase down Tracy McGrady's loose balls.
And that's pretty much what Williams does for his entire 16-year career. Improbably, his knees hold up because new NBA regulations in 2009 remove all limitations on the size of knee and elbow pads. So he's all set.
Unfortunately, his somewhat discomforting looks and blue-collar mentality added to his atrocious free throw shooting make him one of the less popular and appreciated players everywhere he goes.
Not that he's hated, but his 6994 career rebounds collected at stops with the Rockets, Bobcats, Magic, and Kings go largely unnoticed. There's not even a party when he passes Rick Mahorn for 88th on the all-time list.
9. Golden State Warriors: Rodney Carney, F, Memphis
At this point, Golden State is just trying to find a swingman that's not Mike Dunleavy, Jr. and more importantly, doesn't make as much.
Based on what's left on the board, Carney looks like a possible solution, and luckily, nothing like Dunleavy, Jr. And he shows up like they hoped, just not for very long. On a Tuesday in December 2008, he's undercut by Jiri Welsch while taking a three in a Warriors' blow-out win. He suffers serious spine fractures and is forced to retire after a brief comeback stint with the Raptors.
On the bright side, for a brief period of 2007 the success of his efforts on the floor with the recently acquired Peter Ramos cause fans to label them "Team Ram-Rod."
Note: if you didn't get that joke, forget the rest of this story and go rent Super Troopers.
10. Seattle Sonics: Randy Foye, G, Villanova
Seattle management doesn't even know where they'll be located in a year, let alone what their roster will look like, so taking a good young combo guard was a safe bet here.
But Foye's performance is just average in his first contract. It's not really his fault, though, as nobody on Seattle flourishes after a fire sale that sends Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen packing and an announced move that comes just months later.
So he bounces around failing to make his mark and can't find a home until he lands in Detroit during his ninth season. There he has a career year, a la Mike James, and gets inked for three more at seven each.
Naturally, the next season he puts up career lows in almost every offensive category, including just 4.5 points per game, and the year after, he quietly retires in shame like you only wish I would with this tired theme.
11. Orlando Magic: Rajon Rondo, G, Kentucky
Seattle definitely should have taken Rondo. It would have been both an ironic and appropriate selection because the first name on BasketballReference.com's "similar players search" that comes up at the end of his career is Gary Payton.
From the beginning, Rondo gets the steals and becomes an elite shut-down defender that gives opposing guards fits. He has legendary battles with Chris Paul.
Also, his slashing ability and court vision alongside Dwight Howard's simply monstrous two-way play make the Magic a great team for years to come. They even win it all in 2012.
12. New Orleans: Cedric Simmons, F, North Carolina State
Cedric Simmons is a strong player with good potential. But behind emerging star David West and in the shadow of immediate superstar Chris Paul he never really gets a chance to show that. After an unexciting three-year stint in 'Nawlins and an even shorter and less inspiring time in Cleveland, he heads overseas.
Playing in the Israeli league for Hapoel Jerusalem, he marries an Israeli woman, and with the subsequent citizenship, is drafted into the army.
Frequent calls to Doug Gottlieb are not returned.
13. Philadelphia 76ers: Patrick O'Bryant, C, Bradley
It's unclear with this pick if Billy King is trying to shore up his team's front line or planning on staging a production of John Wyndham's The Chrysalids. If it's not either, then maybe he's planning on using some of his players in pitching "The Manute Bol Story" to CBS.
Regardless, that's who they take and boy does it prove to be a seven-foot mistake. It may sound harsh, but I know you'll agree when you hear about the ridiculous adventures that await O'Bryant.
Without saying too much, let me just tell you his bittersweet career is filled with some brilliant moments of comedy and others of unbridled sadness.
Among the more astonishing ups and downs are stories that involve a train stowaway, a series of audio tapes featuring the voice of Kristy Yamaguchi and a special cross over episode between NBA Inside Stuff and Dog The Bounty Hunter.
Hey, I can't give it all away.
Note: almost none of this will actually happen.
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