Last Year
A Tony Dungy team consistently failing in the playoffs — where have I seen that before? The Indianapolis Colts started the season with a 13-0 blaze before stumbling twice before the playoffs. In the postseason, the unconquerable New England Patriots were finally out of the way, but Indy once again choked, this time at home against champs-to-be Pittsburgh. The playoff monkey just keeps getting bigger and bigger for Dungy and Peyton Manning's Colts and don't expect them to shed him this year.
What We Learned From Last Year
After a record-setting offensive display by the Indianapolis Colts in the 2004 regular season, many expected the mauling to continue in 2005.
The offense started slowly, though, scoring only three offensive touchdowns after three weeks.
It was the defense that carried the Colts, permitting no more than 10 points in a game until Week 6.
The emergence of linebackers Gary Brackett, Cato June, and David Thornton solidified the center of the stout defense. June and Thornton provided many big plays and a lot of speed, which is crucial to a Dungy defense. June, a former safety, led the team with five interceptions — two returned for touchdowns — and earned a trip to the Pro Bowl.
The front four had been productive since the arrival of Dwight Freeney and continued to wreak havoc on passers with 46 sacks. With Freeney receiving the bulk of the attention, Raheem Brock, Montae Reagor, Robert Mathis, and Larry Tripplett all tied or set new personal highs for sacks. One disappointment was the pickup of defensive tackle Corey Simon, who didn't quite fit in during his first season with the Colts.
The Colts' defense had noticeably improved its general quickness over the offseason and was flocking to the ball from sideline to sideline. Second-year free safety Bob Sanders, who was selected to his first Pro Bowl, was the best player in the secondary and often near the football at the end of the play. Mike Doss had a career-year, but his performance versus the run is much better than his pass coverage.
First-rounder Marlin Jackson struggled at cornerback in his rookie season, while Nick Harper and Jason David were just adequate starters. The Colts' philosophy was to generate a ton of pressure to protect their cornerbacks, and for the most part, their plan worked until the playoffs.
The passing defense climbed an impressive 13 spots in the rankings, but the Steelers' coaching staff scouted the weakness and exposed it. They attacked the pass defense relentlessly in the first quarter of their playoff game and jumped out to a 14-0 lead.
The Colts' offense was indescribably poor in their divisional playoff game against the Steelers and once again failed in crunch time.
Never mind the fact that they turned it around late — mostly because Troy Polamalu's interception was reversed — Peyton Manning once again fizzled against a 3-4 defense.
More importantly, a 3-4 defense that he helped crush 26-7 just weeks earlier.
Both Manning and his offensive line get rustled against a 3-4 scheme. Typically with a 4-3 defense, there is less pre-snap movement and it is easier to figure out where the defensive players will be. For Manning, he knows who will get single coverage. For the front five, they know where the pressure is going to come from.
Against a 3-4, pressure comes from every angle and can be very deceptive. Linemen sometimes drop into coverage, which further clouds the passing lanes.
But even so, these types of kinks should have been worked out in practice, especially since the Colts failed in two consecutive championship games to a 3-4 defense run by the New England Patriots.
With the Pats out of the way last season, seemingly Indy's biggest hurdle, and home-field advantage against a team they had already spanked in the regular season, the perception was that this was the Colts best chance to finally emerge out of the AFC.
It is not easy to label the Colts a group of choke artists, but that is exactly the case. For three consecutive seasons, the team that has defeated them has gone on to win the Super Bowl and each time, the Colts have lacked a killer instinct and the ability to execute in each eliminating game.
Blame Mike Vanderjagt, blame the 3-4, blame the offensive line, or blame Tony Dungy. Regardless of the scapegoat, the bottom line is the Colts are not mentally tough enough to win a Super Bowl.
This Year
Running back Edgerrin James had been exactly what the Colts were looking for when they surprisingly selected him fourth-overall in the 2000 NFL Draft, one spot ahead Ricky Williams.
Now they are hoping rookie Joseph Addai can fill his shoes.
The advocates of Addai have raved about his well-rounded game — his blocking ability and his pass-catching ability — and considering the success nobodies like Dominic Rhodes, James Mungro, and even the "other" Ricky Williams have in this offense, he should be comfortable from the get-go.
One thing the Colts were displeased about last season was their short-yardage situations, but it is unlikely Addai or any other back on the roster will cure that ailing.
Not much needs to be said about Manning, or wideouts Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. We all know what they bring to the table.
Expect a breakout season out of tight end Dallas Clark, who has slowly improved in each of his three seasons in Indianapolis.
The offensive line returns the same solid starters with the one possible change being at right guard, where Ryan Lilja, who slumped down the stretch last season, might be pushed by former Texas Tech standout Dylan Gandy. This unit is very good, but with the growing popularity of the 3-4 defense, they better figure out how to slow down blitzing linebackers.
On defense, much has been made about a couple of key departures in Larry Tripplett and David Thornton.
The Colts have quietly become a linebacker factory, being one of the best teams in the league to draft and develop them.
From Mike Peterson, to Marcus Washington, to David Thornton, the Colts will find a replacement, but it would be nice to hold on to some of these Pro Bowlers.
Gilbert Gardner will to step into the lineup, but Gary Brackett is the backer who will have a more heralded breakout year. He led the team in tackles last year and added three interceptions and a sack, but he didn't get the same attention as June and Thornton.
The defensive line won't miss Tripplett that much. He underachieved for three seasons before finally compiling a good season to cash in on a contract year.
Corey Simon has trimmed down significantly and is expected to fit into to the void left by Tripplett. There is also some optimism surrounding Vincent "Sweet Pea" Burns and if he can contribute, the Colts should have a solid rotation at defensive tackle.
For a second consecutive season, the Colts have spent a first-day draft selection on a cornerback, this time a second-round pick on Tim Jennings. There had been some talk of moving Marlin Jackson to safety, but he has opened training camp battling for a starting cornerback spot.
The team used Mike Vanderjagt as a scapegoat for last year's failures, but replacement Adam Vinatieri has been much less accurate over his career. Aside from their annual swap of blossoming veterans for up and coming prospects, the Colts return virtually the same unit.
The defense, as a whole, is well-coached and is more than suitable to support what is supposed to be the best offense in the league.
If you haven't noticed, this team is a mirror image of the late-'90's Buccaneers teams that Dungy coached. To contrast, their defense was as dominant as the Colts' offense is, and just like the Colts' defense is better than good enough to get by, the Bucs' offense was supportive enough.
But in two consecutive playoff losses, Dungy's defense was a huge letdown — allowing a total of 52 points in those games — just like Dungy's offense has been the reason for the Colts' failure in the playoffs. The Colts' defense has actually exceeded expectations on several occasions, particularly in the playoffs.
Dungy has taken this team a long way, but just like his former Buccaneers, they don't have the cold blood that Jon Gruden injected the following season.
Sure, they have a chip on their shoulder and they will probably impress in the regular season once again, but history shows that Dungy's teams are not to be trusted in the postseason.
Over/Under: 11.5
Since no one in the division has the firepower to match the Colts' passing game, they shouldn't have a difficult time winning at least five divisional games. They have only lost twice to AFC South opponents in the last three years (twice to Jacksonville). With the NFC East and AFC East on tap, the Colts schedule is middle of the pack and they should finish right around 11 or 12 wins this season. They play: @NYH, HOU, JAC, @NYJ, TEN, WAS, @DEN, @NE, BUF, @DAL, PHI, @TEN, JAC, CIN, @HOU, and MIA.
Fantasy Sleeper
The sleeper on this offense has to be Joseph Addai. Considering what previous running backs have done in this offense and considering the investment the Colts have made into him, he has to be the main carrier. He is well-rounded and is more capable than Dominic Rhodes, so expect to see Addai approach 1,000 yards this season.
This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].
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