Thursday, August 24, 2006
Football Picks: Hating Notre Dame
It's getting to be that time. College football season was just around the corner. Now, it's basically here (just a week and a day away as I write this), and I'm positively giddy, like a kid counting down the days 'till summer vacation.
The last couple of years, I've been making picks in this column that I can assure you allowed no one to get rich in Las Vegas for following. My football picks published in this column are probably hovering right around .500, and maybe even a bit below. Keep that in mind if I bag on your team in the paragraphs to follow.
I think I'm gonna do better this year, though, because I have something that I haven't had before: a system. I'm pretty sure that a gambler with a system never loses. Probably.
Actually, it's not exactly a system, but a different way of selecting games this year, I'm picking the winner, and the margin, before looking at the line. Then will I compare my margins to the college football line, and those with the greatest disparity are my mortal locks (as in, if you take my advice, the locks placed on your foreclosed-upon house will be so strong no mortal will be able to bust them). Here are the five games where I differed the most with the opening Las Vegas line, with my pick on the left. Home teams in caps.
GEORGIA TECH (+8) over Notre Dame
I already touched on this a few columns back. Yes, I am a certified Notre Dame hater. But I really think I'd feel the same way about this game regardless.
The most common point used last year to undervalue Notre Dame was their loss to Michigan State, who went on to mediocrity after beating the golden domers. But that was early in the year, and things change. The best prognosticator for early-season games might be how the teams closed the prior year.
Notre Dame closed last year nicht sehr gut. Despite being +2 in turnovers, Ohio State rolled the Irish for over 600 yards of offense and won going away. The games before that, Notre Dame squeaked by Stanford (5-6 with an early loss to UC-Davis), and I can assure you the Irish were favorites by more than the touchdown they won by.
Here, they are giving even a little more than that. Georgia Tech is not a great program (they also ended the year badly, getting blown-out by Utah in their bowl game), but they are better than Stanford, at least. They are at home, where they have a great deal of recent history of coming up huge against very highly-ranked opponents. I still think Georgia Tech wins. I definitely think they will cover. If Calvin Johnson is in top form, a Notre Dame blowout is just not going to happen.
Texas-El Paso (PK) over SAN DIEGO STATE
Okay, so UTEP ended the year quite badly last year, dropping their last three after an 8-1 start. But they still managed those eight wins, and I put a contending C-USA team about even with a lower-division Mountain West team, even on the road. The difference is SDSU will be breaking in a new head coach, Chuck Long, and UTEP has a proven winner in Mike Price, who lifted UTEP out of the doldrums almost as soon as he was named coach a couple years ago. UTEP will win.
ALABAMA (-16) over Hawaii
So we're only giving Hawaii two touchdowns and a couple of two-point conversions on the road against Alabama? Really? Hawaii doesn't travel well. Up until last year, in fact, they really didn't travel east of the Rockies at all, when they went to East Lansing and got shellacked by Michigan State. Why should this be any different? Oh, I know ... their high-powered passing attack will keep them in the game. Oh, have I been seduced by that logic before. Just last year, in fact. I thought, no way does this offense not cover the 35 points they are being given!
Memphis (+3) over MISSISSIPPI
Memphis is coming off a bowl victory to cap the season with a three game win streak. They have to replace DeAngelo Williams at running back, but Memphis is resilient enough to do that; they made it to that bowl game after losing both their starting quarterback and backup. They will have revenge on their minds (Ole Miss won 10-6 last year) and the Tigers should take it by about a touchdown.
BAYLOR (+7.5) over Texas Christian
This is the biggest game for the Baylor football program in decades. Last year, they finally, finally, finally showed some signs of life. Usually happy to get a single conference win in the Big 12, last year they managed two on the way to five wins ... but more tellingly, it took overtime for Texas A&M and Oklahoma to put them away, and the Bears were the visitors in both those games.
This year, they get to start the season on national television on a day (Sunday, September 3rd) with little college football competition, against a team that, while very strong, is also beatable for a team in Baylor's position. Remember that TCU's only loss last year was against lowly SMU. For a potential statement game of such importance, it helps to have a solid veteran quarterback, and Baylor has one in Shawn Bell. I don't if Baylor will win, but I give them just as much chance as I do TCU. The 7.5-point spread is too much.