Wednesday, October 18, 2006
College Football Predictions: Week 8
This college football season really has been a roller coaster ride for me, and my near .500 Sports Central record refelcts my near .500 personal betting record thus far for college. There is nothing wrong with breaking even, but I'd like to think profit is on the horizon.
YTD Record
1* = 4-4-1
2* = 5-5
3* = 5-3
As a reminder, the ranking system is as follows:
1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I will be playing this team for a large chunk of money (very confident)
Wisconsin @ Purdue +6.5, 12:00 PM, ESPN
I'd be willing to put down a 10* play that 90% of you jumped out of your seats when you saw Wisconsin laying "only" 6.5 points to Purdue this week. This is the type of line that empties most bettors accounts before November rolls around.
By no means am I in love with anything Purdue has done so far this season, but I am certainly not impressed enough with Wisconsin's recent victories over mighty Northwestern and Minnesota to justify playing road Big 10 chalk in this spot. Purdue is more than capable of moving the ball against Wisconsin, and they could easily win this game outright.
The play: Purdue 3*
Texas @ Nebraska +7, 12:00 PM, ABC
This is yet another spot where the road chalk is going to look mighty tasty to the average, long-term losing sports bettor. I actually had this game circled at the beginning of the season as a big one (ala my Michigan over ND call), but have soured on it a bit based on the manner in which the two sides enter this game.
This is could be the first of two meetings between these two sides as there is a good chance they'll reunite in the Big 12 title game. Looking at each teams resume it is hard to fathom why Texas is a seven-point favorite on the road here. I actually think Nebraska has been a bit more impressive to this point, and I expect that trend to continue on Saturday morning.
The play: Nebraska 3*
UCLA +13.5 @ Notre Dame, 2:30 PM, NBC
I am so sick of hearing about how "hard" Notre Dame's schedule is every year. The only quality victory they have thus far in the Charlie Weis era was their road victory over Georgia Tech to open this season. When they actually do play someone good, they lose. I'll even go out on a limb right now and predict how the rest of their season will unfold. They'll win the rest of their games leading up to their game at USC, lose by double digits in L.A., somehow still sneak into a BCS bowl thanks to the Notre Dame brand name, and then will procede to lose by double digits in that game regardless of venue or opponent.
As for this one, I am in no hurry to back UCLA, but there is never value on Notre Dame's side. I'd rather place a bet on the scenario outlined above.
The play: UCLA 1*
Iowa +14 @ Michigan, 3:30 PM, ABC
Last time Iowa traveled to Ann Arbor they got handled easily, and I am not certain this variation of the Hawkeyes is any better than the '04 version. Ultimately, though, the 2004 result has no bearing on this year's game.
Michigan enters this contest as hot as any team in the country while Iowa comes in off their worst loss in four seasons. To most simple-minded folk, this would seem like the perfect spot to bet on Michigan which of course makes this a good situation to take the Hawkeyes. I just think Iowa has enough on each side of the ball to keep Michigan close much in the same manner as Wisconsin did earlier in the season.
The play: Iowa 2*
Georgia Tech @ Clemson -7.5, 7:45 PM, ESPN
The last time I wrote about Georgia Tech, I spoke of how "they were getting too many points" on the road against Virginia Tech. They turned around and walloped the Hokies, winning the game outright. As stupid as I looked on that call, the situation here is very similar with the caveat being that Clemson actually has a pretty good football team, whereas Virginia Tech does not.
I hate betting on favorites, especially at a number as ugly as -7.5. However, in my experience, whenever the average bettor favores an underdog (it's rare), then it is wise to either stay away or try a play on the favorite.
The play: Clemson 2*
Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.