College Football Predictions: Week 11

I've had a pretty good run so far this year with my Sports Central college football picks. It's funny, though, because the truth of the matter is that I am actually down for the year for college and up huge on the year for the NFL as far as my own personal picks go. In short, take what I have to say with a grain of salt. Good luck this week.

YTD Record

1* = 7-4-1
2* = 8-7-1
3* = 8-5

1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I will be playing this team for a large chunk of money (very confident)

Louisville @ Rutgers +6.5, Thursday 7:45 PM, ESPN

Undefeated seasons, conference championships, and national title hopes are all on the line in this contest. I am sure this is just the way ESPN imagined things panning out when they selected this particular game for their Thursday night slate over the summer.

This is a huge spot for both teams. Louisville has a legitimate shot of playing for the whole ball of wax, and this game is the biggest remaining barrier between them and Glendale. Rutgers, on the other hand, has never seen a contest so big in its not-so-decorated history. This is a huge spot for the players, the school, and the entire state of New Jersey.

None of the hype will matter once the first whistle blows. The fact that the line was set below 7 has me worried about the same Louisville team that I gushed over a week ago. I think that Louisville will find a way to squeak by in this one, but I certainly am not willing to lay the points.

The play: Rutgers 1*

Miami +2.5 @ Maryland, 3:30 PM, ABC

At this point, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Miami failed to make a bowl this season. They really are that bad, and to think they are going to turn things around simply because it says Miami on their jerseys would be retarded. Maryland has been a surprise thus far this season, and they need only to split against Miami and Boston College over the next two weeks to set up a monstrous battle with Wake Forest for the ACC Atlantic title.

Larry Coker is going to get fired at season's end, and I am not sure his players really care. I backed Miami last week, and I got burned, but that has never stopped me in the past. This number is calling for people to take Maryland, which means I have no choice but suck it up again and back the 'Canes. This won't end well.

The play: Miami 2*

South Carolina @ Florida -13.5, 3:30 PM, CBS

Plenty of others are going to be writing about Spurrier's return to Gainesville, the Gamecocks quest for another bowl bid, and Florida's SEC title and BCS championship aspirations, so I am just going to skip that portion of the write up if you don't mind.

I don't see much of a betting angle in what is certain to be the most over-hyped game on the Saturday card. Normally, I'd like South Carolina getting less than two touchdowns in this spot, but this line just feels like it wants Gamecock action. I am not a huge fan of this years' version of the Gators, but I think they could stomp SC in this spot. Please tread lightly.

The play: Florida 1*

Notre Dame @ Air Force +11.5, 4:00 PM, CSTV

I've already mentioned this many times so far this year in my column, but once more won't hurt, Notre Dame football = overvalued. You don't have to believe me, but you might want to look at the stats. The Irish are a mere 2-6-1 ATS thus far this year.

The fact that Notre Dame has been abysmal against the spread this season isn't a good reason to play Air Force. However, the fact that Notre Dame is laying less than two touchdowns to an Air Force squad that lost by 7 at home to the very Navy team that Notre Dame destroyed earlier in the year is reason enough for me.

The play: Air Force 3*

Tennessee @ Arkansas -5.5, 7:00 PM, ESPN 2

The general perception of these two teams seems to be that Arkansas is fortunate to be 8-1 and that Tennessee is unlucky not to be 9-0. I don't necessarily agree with this, but I can see how many would come to this conclusion.

I was surprised by this number as I thought Arkansas would be laying about three or four here. I think that you are going to see a lot of people take Tennessee thinking that the 5.5 is a gift. I hate laying chalk and thus rarely play favorites, but this line just seems suspiciously high to me. I'm not sure if I will play it myself, but if I do, then I'll be backing the Hogs in this one.

The play: Arkansas 1*

Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.

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