Wednesday, November 15, 2006
NCAA Tournament Sleeper Watch
The 2006-2007 NCAA basketball season is barely underway, and we've already had some shockers. Vermont, coming off a beat-down at Maryland, rose up to topple No. 14 Boston College. Virginia opened up their new arena with a run-and-gun victory over No. 10 Arizona, and Butler went in to South Bend and kicked the Irish out of the Pre-Season NIT.
What does it all mean? Maybe nothing in the end. But the seeds for tournament runs are always planted in the fall. Pay attention now, and you just might have something to brag about come March.
With that in mind, here are four early stories to keep an eye on. I'm intentionally not talking about ranked teams, because, well, that just wouldn't be as much fun, would it?
Washington State (Pac-10)
What? Washington State? You write a college basketball column about potential sleepers and you lead with Washington State? Are you effing retarded?
Sorry, but it's true.
Tony Bennett has taken over for his father, and he's in line to begin taking advantage of his recruiting efforts these past few years. While still off the pace of the top-tier Pac-10 teams (Arizona, Washington, and UCLA), the Cougars are going to battle their way into the thick of the second-tier with Stanford, Cal, Oregon, and USC. I'm betting the Pac gets five spots in this season's dance, which means two of those latter teams will get an invite. I'm putting my money on USC and Washington State.
The difference this year with Washington State is that Bennett, Jr. is actually going to let his team play offense. The Cougars have scored more than 70 in each of their first three games, going 3-0 with impressive wins against Wisconsin-Milwaukee and UAB in Milwaukee's home tournament. The way these guys play defense (second in the Pac in scoring defense last season), an offense that can score in the 60s or 70s consistently gives the Cougars a very real shot at 17-19 wins and .500 in the conference. That spells sleeper, baby.
Missouri (Big 12)
Living in St. Louis, you'd think I'd be bombarded with Mizzou hype, but it's been quite the opposite. I guess after years of watching Quin Snyder flail away with the clipboard, people are a little burned out on the Tigers. Most people are ignoring them outright, and even those paying attention seem resigned to at least a year or two of down times before the program turns around.
Big mistake. With Mike Anderson over from UAB, this is the team most likely to shock the Big 12. College basketball is the most susceptible to energy and enthusiasm trumping talent, and with Anderson in charge of a program filled with kids who were never as bad as Snyder made them look, this is the perfect "nobody loves us" team. Anderson knows how to play this card, and the Big 12 is just weak enough for the Tigers to make a serious move.
Houston (Conference USA)
For those of you who haven't been paying attention, Tom Penders has been building himself quite the program down there in football land. After a one-point loss to NCAA-super snub Missouri State in the NIT last season (to finish at 21-10), the Cougars return a lineup dominated by upperclassmen. Oliver Lafayette leads an explosive offense that feeds off a 40-minutes-of-hell-type defense (though I'm sure giving up 99 to Rhode Island isn't exactly the plan, even if it was in OT).
In a somewhat weakened Conference USA (UAB will be down in year one of the Mike Davis era), Houston should be able to rack up the wins. Road games against Arizona and Kentucky will keep their RPI respectable, helping their cause should they fall to Memphis in the conference tournament. If they get in, watch out.
The Mountain West
After last year's explosion from the Missouri Valley and Horizon conferences, nobody should be surprised when another "mid-major" all of a sudden has three teams in the bracket. This year, the Mountain West takes its turn.
San Diego State features one of the best scorers anywhere in senior guard Brandon Heath, paired with a legit inside force, fellow senior and All-MWC selection Mohamed Abukar (14 ppg as a junior).
New Mexico is set to enjoy two "major conference" transfers in Aaron Johnson (6-8 forward from Penn State who led the Big 10 in rebounding two years ago), and J.R. Giddens (6-5 guard from Kansas), a former McDonald's All-American expected to go in the NBA lottery.
And Air Force, the team everybody pointed at as not belonging in the last tournament, returns almost everybody from the team that led the nation in scoring defense last season and carries a 17-game home court winning streak. There's a 12/5 upset here. I can smell it.
So, there you go. It's week two of the season, and we have six teams on our Sports Central NCAA tournament sleeper watch. Let's see how it goes.
Seth Doria is a freelance writer based out of St. Louis, MO. His weekly NFL picks and daily NCAA men's basketball picks can be found at The Left Calf.