Tuesday, November 21, 2006
NFL Week 11 Power Rankings
Five Quick Hits
* Three shutouts in one weekend. That's surprising even when the Rams aren't one of the teams that gets shut out.
* Tennessee won both of its road games against the NFC East. Strongest division in the league, huh?
* CBS has the best pre-game show this year. FOX is second, and ESPN is unwatchable.
* Can we get a moratorium on partial announcers? It used to be considered unprofessional for analysts to publicly root for teams and players.
* We're past the middle of the season. Check back later this week for the Pro Bowl column, including my votes and reasoning.
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We're slowly starting to get a general idea of what the playoffs will look like in January, and the picture seems surprisingly familiar. In the NFC, Tampa Bay and Washington clearly aren't returning to the postseason, but Chicago, Seattle, Carolina, and the Giants are all at least tied for the lead in their respective divisions. In the AFC, Indianapolis and New England are virtual locks to repeat as division champs, while Denver and Jacksonville both have strong playoff position. If the postseason started today, eight of the 12 teams in last year's field would return.
For now, it's still Week 11, and we'll get straight to the power rankings. Brackets indicate last week's rank.
1. Chicago Bears [2] — Rex Grossman's passer rating has dropped to 83.5, and Chicago scored a season-low 10 points against the Jets, but the defense came up big, holding Chad Pennington to a 42.8 passer rating. At this point of the season, every team has obvious flaws, and the Bears are no exception, but they seem to be the NFL's most dominant team right now.
2. Indianapolis Colts [1] — We're going to find out whether or not this team has the resolve to be a champion. The Colts were clearly the league's best team last season, but this year they aren't overpowering, and they're going to have to grind things out to be successful. They don't have homefield advantage — or even a first-round bye — locked up, and they're going to have to win a couple playoff games to reach the Super Bowl. A lot of people doubted their ability to do that even when they were overpowering.
3. Baltimore Ravens [4] — The AFC Super Bowl favorites, Indianapolis and San Diego, are notorious postseason chokers, so if you're looking ahead to February, consider the Ravens. The remaining schedule is tough, with road games against the Bengals, Chiefs, and Steelers, but Baltimore is 8-2, with both the offense and defense clicking. This is a veteran team that's been there before, and it could be very dangerous in the playoffs.
4. San Diego Chargers [5] — Averaging 33.2 points per game, and it's hard to argue with Al Michaels' statement that "the Chargers are playing the most exciting football" in the league. They've scored over 30 points in four straight games, they're coming back from big deficits, and we've run out of superlatives for LaDainian Tomlinson. Strange to remember the Chargers almost fired Marty Schottenheimer this offseason.
5. New England Patriots [6] — Held the Packers to five first downs and 120 yards of offense. Green Bay averaged 2.5 yards per play, converted only one third down, and had an 18-minute deficit in time of possession. Mike Vrabel and Ty Warren had 1.5 sacks each. The Pats are fourth in total defense and second in scoring defense.
6. Denver Broncos [3] — With today's young, flashy wideouts, veteran receivers are a huge asset for coaches, and most top teams have one. Muhsin Muhammad, Marvin Harrison, Derrick Mason, Keenan McCardell, Troy Brown, Rod Smith, and so on. Even when they're not top performers any more (and Smith is an afterthought this season), they're still there to guide the young guys.
7. Dallas Cowboys [13] — Defense contained Peyton Manning, Tony Romo had another good game, and Mike Vanderjagt missed two field goals against his old team. Vanderjagt was supposed to solve the Cowboys' longstanding placekicker problems, but he looks like a headcase who can't be counted on.
8. Kansas City Chiefs [9] — Trent Green was uninspiring in his return, but Kansas City escaped with a win thanks to Oakland's anemic offense and Larry Johnson. I worry that Johnson is being overworked, though — he's on pace for 397 attempts, and with that kind of workload, if you don't get injured or run out of gas, you will the next season.
9. New York Giants [7] — There is simply no way the Giants can win a game when Tiki Barber only gets 10 carries. And why on earth did he keep leaving the game on third down? If you don't want to give the ball to your best player in key situations, at least use him as a decoy. The Giants have dropped two in a row after a five-game winning streak, and I sometimes wonder whether Little Manning is the best QB on the roster.
10. Carolina Panthers [11] — Defense positively shut down the Rams. St. Louis had nine punts, only eight first downs, 21 minutes of possession, just 111 yards, and didn't reach the red zone all game. Four Panthers had at least 1.5 sacks in the win. Carolina has won six of its last eight.
11. New Orleans Saints [8] — Made 25 first downs through the air and gained almost 600 yards of total offense in their blowout loss to Cincinnati. Drew Brees put up huge numbers, but he had a bad game, throwing three interceptions, including two in the end zone. Brees has more interceptions this season than Peyton Manning, Marc Bulger, and Damon Huard put together.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars [14] — Dominated the Giants, with over 400 yards of offense and a 2:1 advantage in time of possession. Jacksonville converted half its third downs on offense and held Little Manning to a 28.3 passer rating on defense. The Jags, who lost to the Texans at home last week, may be the NFL's most up-and-down team this season.
13. Seattle Seahawks [10] — Converted only one first down against San Francisco, and got embarrassed by Frank Gore, who ran for a 49er-record 212 yards. Since starting 3-0, the Seahawks have gone 3-4, and just 1-4 against teams who are not the Rams.
14. Cincinnati Bengals [15] — Chad Johnson has almost as many yards in the last two games (450) as in the first eight combined (482). Kevin Kaesviharn had a career game against New Orleans, with nine solo tackles, two sacks, and a crucial red zone interception right before halftime. At 5-5, the Bengals are very much in the AFC playoff picture.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers [17] — I know some of his interceptions should be blamed on the receivers, but Ben Roethlisberger has 17 picks so far this season, four more than any other player — and remember that Ben didn't even play in Week 1. Jacksonville's MNF win makes it unlikely, but good 4-6 teams (like Pittsburgh and Miami) may still have a shot at the playoffs.
16. Miami Dolphins [20] — Finished with negative rushing yardage, but scored two defensive TDs and won. Leading rusher Ronnie Brown had two yards and a lost fumble. The Dolphins are 3-3 with Joey Harrington as quarterback, and one of the big differences is sacks. Daunte Culpepper took 21 sacks in his four starts, while Harrington has just six in six games.
17. New York Jets [18] — The defense is ranked 29th, but the Jets' biggest problem right now is Pennington. He had a terrific start to the season, posting passer ratings over 90 in six of the first seven games, but has been so bad since then that his season rating has dropped to 76.8.
18. Atlanta Falcons [16] — Three straight losses, with an average of 12.3 points per game during the streak. You can't win with that kind of production. Michael Vick is clearly not the only problem, but let's not pretend this guy is Tom Brady if you put better players around him. Vick takes too many sacks, but he makes up for that with his running. The big problem is his accuracy. Even with subpar receivers, you have to complete more than 52.4% of your passes.
19. Philadelphia Eagles [12] — Jeff Garcia is a capable backup, but the season-ending injury to Donovan McNabb might be the end for the 2006 Eagles. They're already in a 1-4 tailspin, and I think they're looking for an excuse to go in the tank. I've always thought highly of Andy Reid, but this team seems very poorly coached.
20. San Francisco 49ers [29] — I've been a doubter all season, including a last-place preseason ranking and a 3-13 record prediction. Now the 49ers are .500 and have an outside shot at the playoffs. They've mostly beaten up on bad teams, but wins are wins, and the Niners have three in a row.
21. Green Bay Packers [19] — Shut out for the second time this season, and their quarterback situation is worrisome, with Brett Favre hurting and Aaron Rodgers out for the season. If the Packers and Vikings lose next week, Chicago can clinch the NFC North.
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [22] — Won the rematch of last year's wildcard playoff game, running the ball and controlling time of possession. Kicker Matt Bryant had an awful game, drawing a 15-yard penalty for a late hit and kicking off out of bounds, both times giving Washington great field position.
23. Washington Redskins [21] — Carlos Rogers has really regressed. At the end of last season, he looked like a solid starting corner, but this year, he's struggling badly. Jason Campbell looked pretty good in his NFL debut. His accuracy should improve as he gets more first-team practice reps, and his arm strength and mobility allow Washington to open up its playbook in a way the team couldn't with Mark Brunell.
24. Buffalo Bills [25] — Everyone knows that Willis McGahee is the best running back in the league — he told us so — but the Bills have been playing pretty well without him. Buffalo didn't score more than 20 points in any of its first seven games, but it's done so twice since the bye. Lee Evans had kind of a good game this week, with 11 receptions for 265 yards and two scores.
25. Tennessee Titans [28] — Vince Young brings a lot to the table, but he's going to have to improve on his league-worst 45.7 completion percentage. You can't win a lot of games when your leading receiver has two catches.
26. Cleveland Browns [26] — Started 0-3 and lost five of their first six, but the Browns are a respectable 2-3 since the bye (against teams with a combined record of 29-21), and they haven't lost by more than 10 points since Week 2. If Charlie Frye can limit his turnovers (12 interceptions and six lost fumbles), this can be a competitive team.
27. Houston Texans [27] — David Carr threw an early interception, then completed 25 of his next 29 pass attempts. With stiff AFC competition, Carr isn't likely to get a lot of Pro Bowl votes, but he has a better passer rating than Tom Brady, and he's fifth in quarterback rushing yards.
28. Minnesota Vikings [24] — Brad Johnson deserves a lot of the blame for their four-game losing streak. Johnson has at least one interception in each game of the streak, and his passer rating has dropped to 28th in the NFL. The Vikings don't have great weapons, and the offensive line hasn't been as good as fans hoped, but Johnson has been a huge disappointment for a team that was counting on his steady play to help it reach the playoffs.
29. St. Louis Rams [23] — They're 4-6, but haven't won in a month and a half. In that stretch, they were swept by the Seahawks and lost by 14 points or more to their other three opponents. The Rams are a wreck right now, but they have winnable home games the next two weeks, with a respectable season on the line.
30. Oakland Raiders [31] — Solid defense hasn't allowed an opponent to reach 20 points for six consecutive games. That stat is a little misleading, since teams don't need to score a lot of points against the Raiders, but make no mistake: this team's problems are on offense.
31. Arizona Cardinals [32] — Sacked Jon Kitna four times, but their best defensive player, Bertrand Berry, who had two of the sacks, has been placed on injured reserve and is done for the season. Matt Leinart leads all NFL rookies in passing yards, slightly ahead of Andrew Walter and Bruce Gradkowski.
32. Detroit Lions [30] — As if this 2-8 team needed any more problems, lead running back Kevin Jones left Sunday's game with an ankle injury and is doubtful for Week 12. The Lions have a short week, facing Miami at 12:30 Eastern on Thanksgiving. The other games are Tampa Bay at Dallas and Denver at Kansas City.
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Enjoy the holiday, and don't forget to check back this week for my annual Pro Bowl column.