Monday, November 27, 2006
AFC Tie-Breakers and Titty Twisters
After a fairly chalk Week 12, the NFC playoff race is still on course. The top four are comfortably seeded, and though the Giants imploded against Tennessee (and then in the media — got to love New York), there really isn't any other team capable of knocking them out of the playoff picture. Still, I think Tom Coughlin gets canned after this season.
As for the second wildcard slot in the NFC, it will come down to who kills their team the least: Mike Vick or Jake Delhomme. I've still got my money on Vick, but it's really up in the air.
Now in the AFC, the situation is far more interesting, prompting my annual Google search for the NFL tie-breaker policy. Five teams are definitively out of it: Cleveland, Houston, Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee. (Even if the Titans run the table, nine wins still isn't going to get it done in the AFC. Too bad, too. Vince Young is the playoffs would have been fun.)
So that leaves 11 teams for six spots. There's a definite top three in San Diego, Baltimore, and Indianapolis. And New England should be able to hold the AFC East with relative ease. After that, it's like a battle for position at a strip club shower scene. A single moment of lost focus, and you're standing at the back of the pack, a bunch of guys having a way better time than you.
(You know, I'm never going to make it big with analogies like that. Oh well.)
The race, again in reverse order of hope:
11. Buffalo Bills (5-6) — Kudos to Marv Levy and Dick Jauron for making the best of a very poor situation. Their draft has turned out great, J.P. Losman has finally started to make strides, the special teams are above average, and the defense has the potential to become dominant. Another good draft, and it could be a much different story this time next season.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5) — I'm dropping them below the Dolphins because there's a legitimate shot they lose all five remaining games, starting this week in Miami. Even if the Jags do manage to win three games out of their last four (Indianapolis, at Tennessee, New England, at Kansas City), they would still have five or six losses within the conference, the second level wildcard tie-breaker after head-to-head. And even if everything happens perfectly and the Jags make up their one game against Kansas City, they would still have to go to Arrowhead for the season finale and win. That's asking a lot.
9. Miami (5-6) — Even if they run the table with an opponents' winning percentage of 64% (toughest in the field), I still don't think 10 wins gets it done. I guess not having a top-10 pick will have to be consolation enough for blowing the Daunte Culpepper/Drew Brees decision. (Hmmmm ... let's see ... do I want the filet and lobster or two-week-old rotting ham sandwich? You know what, I think I'll go with the sandwich.)
8. Cincinnati (6-5) — Lose the battle for last-man-out to the Jets thanks to a much tough schedule (Baltimore, Oakland, at Indianapolis, at Denver, Pittsburgh). World beware — Chris Henry is about to have a lot of free time on his hands.
7. NY Jets (6-5) — Last man out ends up tied with Denver and Kansas City, but loses the final tie-breaker to Denver (who loses its own tie-breaker to Kansas City — see below). Still, great job Eric Mangini, who should win coach of the year. Their draft call of not trading the farm for Reggie Bush, then using their two first-rounders on the top-rated tackle and center was the catalyst for their resurgence. (Well, that and letting Herman Edwards go.)
6. Denver (7-4) — Here's the deal on the Chiefs/Broncos tie-breaker, which really only affects seeding, since San Diego now has a two-game advantage in the division with an easier schedule than the other two:
Both Denver and Kansas City play at San Diego, Broncos in Week 14, Chiefs in Week 15. Assuming both lose (San Diego is 5-0 at home this season), it would come down to their other four games. Denver has Seattle, at Arizona, Cincinnati, San Francisco. Kansas City has at Cleveland, Baltimore, at Oakland, Jacksonville.
Both teams are capable of winning those four other games, though with Jay Cutler taking over in Denver, there's always the risk that one rookie mistake can cost them the whole thing. But as long as Cutler stays steady, both teams would finish 11-5 and tied for second in the AFC West.
With the teams split head-to-head, the second tie-breaker for teams within the same division is the record against other division teams. A Kansas City win at Oakland in Week 16 would make them 4-2 in the division, which, if Denver loses at San Diego, would give the Chiefs the tie-breaker over the Broncos, who would finish 3-3 in the division.
So, it really depends on who you think has a better shot, Chiefs at Raiders or Broncos at Chargers. Advantage Chiefs.
5. Kansas City (7-4) — With the above explanation in mind, the Chiefs become the five seed and play at the fourth-ranked division winner, likely to be ...
4. New England (8-3) — With a one game hole in the standings to Baltimore, and a two-game hole in conference record to the Ravens if the two should finish tied, the Pats become the fourth seed, hosting Kansas City for the pleasure of facing the Colts in Indianapolis. "Adam Vinatieri lines up for the kick to save the Colts and break the hearts of New England fans around the world ... snap is good, hold is good, kick is up, kick is ... wide right. Wide right! He missed it! He missed it! Pats win! Oh my god, PATS WIN!"
3. Baltimore (9-2) — If they finished tied with San Diego, the Ravens would get the two-seed and bye based on their home win over the Chargers in Week 4. I think they finish 12-4, Chargers 13-3, and the Ravens get to host Cutler and the Broncos on wildcard weekend (then fly across the country for a rematch against Philip and The LaDainians).
2. San Diego (9-2) — They could very well run the table, finish 14-2 and tied for best record with Indy. (Or the Colts could lose more than one game and finish second. It could happen. I'm just not ready to predict it.) But even if they finish tied with the Colts, they lose the tie-breaker based on conference record.
1. Indianapolis (10-1) — After Rex Grossman's Foxborough Follies, there's no question the Colts are the best team in the NFL, and certainly the best offense (especially with Joseph Addai running the best he has all season). Overall, this sets up to be the Colts' best shot to win it all. Will it happen? At this point, I'd root for Manning to win as long as he promised to never make another commercial for the rest of his life. (Every time I see one it's like an emotional titty twister.) Barring that, I hope he gets gangrene.
Wildcard Weekend: Baltimore over Denver; New England over Kansas City (The return of Ty Law and Larry Johnson make this a bad match-up for the Pats. Very bad. I'm picking on a prayer here.)
Divisional: San Diego over Baltimore; Indianapolis over New England (I feel sick.)
AFC Championship: San Diego over Indianapolis (Great matchup for the Chargers. Their pressure defense and great running game are the perfect counters for the Colts' offensive firepower.)
Super Bowl: Cowboys over Chargers. Tuna rides off into the sunset, Terrell Owens shows up drunk at Donovan McNabb's house and drops a Najeh Davenport on his front steps. (I think I stole that last line from Bill Simmons. Thanks, Bill. You're the best.)
One last note: Last week, I called St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz "a fat idiot who wears nerd glasses" because I read one of his columns criticizing Rams head coach Scott Linehan as a wish for the good old days of Mike Martz. Bernie says he in fact does not wish for the return of Mad Mike. And though he is overweight (as am I, though less so), I'm going to have to retract the "fat idiot" part. That just wasn't very nice. (I'm sticking with the nerd glasses thing, though.)
Seth Doria is a freelance writer based out of St. Louis, MO. His weekly NFL picks and daily NCAA men's basketball picks can be found at The Left Calf.