Thursday, December 7, 2006
NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 14
Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Thursday night football comes to Heinz Field for the second time this year. On September 7th, the 2006 season kicked off and Steelers beat the Dolphins 28-17 as millions watched on NBC. This time, the Steelers host the Browns, and a much smaller audience will tune in on the NFL Network.
"If you don't have the NFL Network," says Bill Cowher, "then call you cable or satellite provider and give that poor, helpless customer service representative a piece of your mind. Or, get a lightning rod, some rabbit ears, aluminum foil, and a set of tarot cards and pray for reception. Or, contact the NFL and ask if flex scheduling can be implemented immediately for Thursday games."
Cleveland won for only the second time at home by defeating the Chiefs 31-28 on Phil Dawson's 33-yard field goal in overtime. The win was sparked by backup quarterback Derek Anderson, who replaced the injured Charlie Frye in the second half. Anderson threw two TD passes to Steve Heiden in the fourth quarter to force the overtime.
"I was on the verge of benching Frye," says Romeo Crenel, "so it's ironic that he has his best half of the year, then gets hurt and has to sit. It's his right wrist, which is the hand he normally uses to throw interceptions and fumble with, so we'll have to wait and see the extent of the injury before making a decision."
The last time these two bitter rivals clashed, the Browns blew a 14-point, fourth quarter lead and lost 24-21. This time, it will be different; Cleveland only blows a four-point, fourth quarter lead. Ben Roethlisberger hits Heath Miller with a late score, and the Steelers win, 20-17.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
Atlanta halted their four-game skid with a 24-14 win over the 'Skins in D.C. Michael Vick and company rushed for 256 yards and Vick threw two touchdown passes, both of which were actually caught by Falcon receivers. The Falcons benefitted from a players-only meeting organized by veteran safety Lawyer Milloy.
"Egos and fingers were checked at the door," says Milloy. "And we checked receivers' hands at the door, just to make sure they had them. Those guys got together on their own and discussed a revolutionary new procedure — catching the ball."
The Bucs lost 20-3 in Pittsburgh and fell to 3-9 for the season. Quarterback Bruce Gradkowski threw three interceptions, but did lead a final Tampa drive to set up a Matt Bryant field goal with four seconds left.
"The most vulnerable prevent defense in football is that with a 20-point lead with under two minutes remaining in the game," says Gradkowski. "Obviously, Coach Gruden has been watching the NHL's Lightning play and thought the third period was to follow. But, anyway, it's alumni weekend here for the Bucs, which will give me a chance to meet some players from the past. I really admire those guys for their commitment to this city, but mostly for the bravery they displayed in wearing the old Buccaneers' helmet. You know, the one with the effeminate looking swashbuckler with the feather in his cap. Are you sure Johnny Depp's inspiration for Captain Jack Sparrow was Keith Richards and not the guy on the old helmet?"
That could be, B-Grad. I think it's time for the Bucs to go to their throwback uniforms.
This is a huge game for the Falcons, who are 6-6 along with about half of the NFC. Playoff implications are abundant, which means Atlanta will play great, or play terribly. Who knows? With Dallas next on their schedule, the Falcons need a win here in the worst way. And they'll get it. Vick throws two touchdown passes, which are caught, and Morten Andersen kicks two field goals to surpass Gary Anderson as the NFL's all-time leading scorer. Afterwards, Morten and Gary reminisce about old times via their rotary phones.
Falcons win, 24-17.
Baltimore @ Kansas City
Kansas City squandered a golden opportunity to boost their wildcard standing with a 31-28 overtime loss to Cleveland in a game in which the Chiefs held a 28-14 fourth-quarter lead. Instead of an 8-4 record and the top current wildcard position, the Chiefs are 7-5, along with the Jets, Bengals, Broncos, and Jaguars.
"As they say," says Herman Edwards, "our destiny is in our own hands, and we just ate a big tub of buttery popcorn. Blowing a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead in Cleveland really damages our playoff hopes, but at least we can say we know what it must feel like to be an NFC wildcard contender. Check that. We're 7-5. NFC wildcard contenders are 6-6. I think it's a good year to allow eight AFC teams into the playoffs and only the four division winners from the NFC."
Can you really consider the Ravens Super Bowl contenders? Sure, they're defense is good, but nowhere near as dominating as their 2000 defense. And their offense could only manage a fairly meaningless late touchdown in last Thursday's 13-7 loss to the Bengals.
"That's the kind of offensive production that gets someone like Jim Fassel fired," says Brian Billick, "while someone like me takes over the offensive play calling."
If you want to beat the Ravens, do what the Bengals did: score first and don't give up the big play, which Baltimore has lacked this year. Of course, that's what the Chiefs will try to do, but the Ravens will regain their form. An early Trent Green interception leads to a Raven touchdown. Then the Ravens play "kill the clock" with the running of Jamal Lewis.
Baltimore wins, 20-17.
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
Despite getting a detailed scouting report from brother Eli, Peyton Manning and the Colts still couldn't overcome the underdog Titans, and lost on Rob Bironas' 60-yard field goal. The loss could be costly for the Colts; although they still own the top spot for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs based on conference record, the hot Chargers could easily overtake them.
"Look, home-field isn't all it's cracked up to be," says Manning. "We can give up 200 yards rushing to San Diego at home just as easily as we can at their place. And our defense is not our No. 1 issue. It's our offense. If we can only score 17 points against the Titans and their 32nd-ranked defense, then defense is not the problem. I know it's usually tougher to score in the playoffs, but if our defense can hold our opponent to 24 points or less, then we should win the game. Now, if that opponent is the Chargers, change that number to 34. But let's not anoint the Chargers as the greatest team ever just yet. Are you going to tell me that a team that had to score 42 and 28 second-half points in consecutive weeks to win isn't flawed?"
Have you heard this one before? Jacksonville follows a huge win over the Giants with a painful loss in Buffalo. They rebound and manhandle the Dolphins 24-10 in Miami. Sounds familiar, doesn't it? The real question, though, is what Jacksonville team shows up on Sunday. The team that beat the Cowboys, Jets, and Giants, or the one that lost to the Texans, twice?
"Your guess is as good as mine," says Jack Del Rio. "I think the more important question is this: which Jack Del Rio will show up? The guy in the fresh Reebok suit and tie, or the guy in the Jaguar polo shirt? Either way, Jack Del Rio is the epitome of athletic style. If I could get my squad to play with the same amount of passion and enthusiasm that I show in the fashion arena, then we could be a 12-4 team, just like last year."
Here's all you need to know: the Colts lost last week, the Jags won last week. Indy won't lose two in a row, and it's their annual "clinch the division in early December" game. Manning throws for an efficient 184 yards and a touchdown, and the Colts' defense proves that their not that bad.
Indianapolis wins, 24-17.
Minnesota @ Detroit
The Lions had the Patriots on the ropes in Foxboro (who hasn't), holding a 21-13 fourth quarter lead before losing 28-21. With the loss, Detroit fell to 2-10 and was officially eliminated from playoff contention.
"It's pretty sad when you're in the NFC and eliminated from the playoffs with four games remaining," says Detroit coach Rod Marinelli. "But that's okay. Our goal this year, as it is every year, is not to necessarily make the playoffs, but to ensure that Matt Millen keeps his job. If two wins is enough to do that, then God help us all. But even though we're 'Rod and Reeling' at 2-10, we've got to keep a positive outlook. So I'll keep feeding these guys compliments, which I call coaching covered with Marinelli sauce, and we'll play this season out, take the No. 1 or 2 pick in the draft, and start the cycle again next year."
Last week, the Vikings and Lions combined for 10 turnovers in respective losses to the Bears and Patriots. If you want specifics, the quarterbacks, Brad Johnson and Jon Kitna, accounted for eight of those ten turnovers. Brad Childress has a decision to make: does he stay with Johnson, or make a change?
"If Rex Grossman can keep his job with a 1.3 passer rating," says Childress, "then why shouldn't Johnson keep his with a 10.3? We're still alive in this thing they call the playoffs, although we'd probably have to win out and resort to bribery and witchcraft to get in. In a season chock full of decisions I'll regret, I'll make another one: Johnson is the starter. Tarvaris 'Play-Action' Jackson will have to wait, maybe as little as a quarter or two, to play."
Call it a hunch. No, actually, call it a coin flip, but I think the Lions will win this. Sure, the Vikes have more to play for, but what do NFC teams usually do when they need to win? They lose. Jon Kitna throws two touchdown passes to Roy Williams, who then boasts that the Lions are "the best 3-10 team in NFL history."
Detroit wins, 27-23.
New England @ Miami
The Patriots overcame a 21-13 fourth quarter deficit to the Lions before two short Corey Dillon touchdown runs powered them to a 28-21 win. Tom Brady passed for 305 yards as New England continued to struggle at home.
"Obviously, we underestimated the Lions," says Tom Brady, browsing through the Christmas 2006 Eddie Bauer catalog. "Or maybe we're not as good as we think we are. We very well could be the sorriest 9-3 team in the league, although personally I think that distinction belongs to the Ravens. We have our weaknesses, just like every other team. But if you give us a home game in the playoffs in January, we become a much more dangerous team, especially when referees make up rules in our favor as they go along, like the 'tuck rule,' for example."
The Dolphins had their four-game winning streak snapped by the Jaguars 24-10, which may have ended Miami's slim playoff hopes. Joey Harrington tossed an interception in the end zone with the Dolphins up 7-3, and the Jags scored on their ensuing possession to go up 10-7.
"If Tom Jackson were here," says Nick Saban, "he'd say 'Joey Harrington, you got Jagged Up!' I just thought of something. My quarterback is a reject from Detroit who plays the piano and who's named after a baby kangaroo. But my backup quarterback is named Cleo Lemon, no relation to Meadowlark, Chet, or Bob. What's a coach to do?"
It's called an "upgrade," Nick. Try it with a quarterback who's not an outcast and/or already injured.
Had the Dolphins won last week, I'd give them a chance. Were this game being played in New England, I'd give Miami a chance. But it's in Miami, and the Patriots are the only perfect road team in the NFL. And the Pats still have a good shot at a bye in the playoffs, and possibly home-field throughout. Brady throws for 286 yards and two touchdowns, and Bill Belichick takes sideline style to another level by sporting a sleeveless hooded sweatshirt with no undershirt in sunny Miami.
Patriots win, 27-20.
N.Y. Giants @ Carolina
On the bright side, the Giants didn't blow a 21-point fourth quarter lead. They did, however, lose their fourth straight game, falling 23-20 to the Cowboys on Martin Gramatica's field goal with one second left. The Giants played well, but were victimized by several untimely penalties, including three personal foul flags.
"I accept all the blame for that," says Tom Coughlin, "and transfer it all to my players. Obviously, last week's players-only meeting didn't get the message through their thick skulls. I think their meetings need to be a little more specific to get the message across. For example, they need a players who have criticized the coaching staff-only meeting, a players who have called out teammates-only meeting, and a players who have blown up at reporters-only meeting. But that would be impossible. How can Michael Strahan be in three different places at once?"
Well, Tom, he can't. Here's an idea, though. How about a coaches and players-only meeting, in which the coaches tell the players to shut their traps, wory about themselves, and show some guts. Like Deputy Barney Fife said, "You've got to nip it in the bud!"
And Gomer Pyle once said "Shazam," which is not even close to the profanity that Panther players, coaches, and fans alike must have uttered when Jake Delhomme threw his second interception against the Eagles last Monday. The pick sealed Philly's 27-24 win and dropped the Panthers to 6-6, a record they share with the Giants, Falcons, and Eagles.
"There's no reason to panic," says John Fox. "Now, if we're losing, with the ball, with the game on the line, and Jake's holding the ball, then that's a darn good reason to panic. If Jake continues to make stupid decisions, then I'll have no recourse but to 'intentionally ground' him. And that sore thumb may help him hitch a ride out of town."
Actually, now is a good time to panic. Carolina has lost already to two of those 6-6 teams, Atlanta and Philly, and a loss to the Giants would leave them in tiebreaker hell. The Panthers' offense is the third-lowest scoring in the league. They won't score enough to beat the Giants. Eli Manning throws two touchdown passes, and the Giants win, 27-23.
Oakland @ Cincinnati
Something odd happened in Cincinnati last Thursday. The Bengals won a game with defense, beating division rival Baltimore 13-7 on the NFL Network's inaugural broadcast.
"Yeah, defense in Cincinnati," quips Carson Palmer. "That is odd, unless you're talking about defense lawyers. We lead the league in those, and it's an all-star cast, I might add. The fact that we're able to field a team tells you that our defense in the courtroom is top-notch."
The Raiders held the Texans to 124 total yards, including minus five net passing yards, but still lost 23-14 thanks to, what else, offensive ineptitude. The Raiders turned the ball over five times, and Sebastian Janikowski missed three field goals.
"I think there's two words that sums up what I think about Sebastian," says Art Shell. "'No good.' If he was half as accurate kicking field goals as he is slipping mickeys into ladies' beverages, then he'd be the greatest kicker ever. Let's face it. If our offense can get anywhere near field goal range, he's got to make those kicks. That's the only way we can score, at least on offense."
Cincinnati's defense went seven quarters without giving up any points until the Ravens scored late. Had they shut out the Ravens, then the Bengals defense could have been looking at a good opportunity for a third shutout. If that would have happened, then you could have looked to the sky and seen pigs flying, and you could probably caught Randy Moss hustling. Cincy comes close, but just misses the shutout.
Bengals win, 23-6.
Philadelphia @ Washington
Wow! It doesn't get any better than this. Garcia versus Campbell. Wait a minute. This isn't the quarterfinal round of the Accenture Match Play Championships between Spanish heartthrob Sergio Garcia and New Zealand's Michael Campbell? It's just Jeff Garcia of the Eagles facing Jason Campbell of the Redskins? That's too bad. Hey, at least there's playoff implications here. The Eagles are part of the picture after last Monday's 27-24 win over the Panthers.
"Did you expect anything less?" asks Jeff Garcia. "Especially with Rocky Balboa himself at the game. I don't care if Sylvester Stallone is 60, he doesn't look a day over 58. What an ovation he got from the fans. Obviously, they weren't selected to pre-screen his new movie. Luckily for Sly, it wasn't snowing. Otherwise, he would have taken more hits with snowballs than the Rock has from Apollo Creed, Clubber Lang, Thunderlips, and Ivan Drago combined. But when it comes to the backup quarterback who's lead the Eagles to the cusp of the playoffs while not throwing a single interception, and who happens to be the greatest enemy of the hated Terrell Owens, I get booed."
This begins Philly's three-game road trek against their NFC East competition. A tough situation, especially at 6-6 knowing you likely need to win all of your remaining games. That's pressure. The 'Skins are 4-8 — no pressure.
Washington wins, 21-20.
Tennessee @ Houston
Rob Bironas' 60-yard field goal with seven seconds left powered the Titans to a 20-17 stunner over the Colts, the Titans' second-straight dramatic win over a quarterback named Manning. Two weeks ago, the Titans scored 24 fourth-quarter points to beat the Giants and Eli Manning 24-21.
"I think I speak for everyone in this proud and humble organization," comments Jeff Fisher, "when I say, 'Archie Manning, come get some.' We've got quite a rivalry brewing here. Next year, we can possibly mount a challenge to the Colts for the division. Maybe what they need to get toughened up for the playoffs is a hard-fought battle for the division crown."
The Titans will face another AFC South rival, the Texans, fresh off an ugly 23-14 win over Oakland in the Black Hole. And 'black hole' must have been where David Carr was throwing the ball; he didn't complete a single pass in the second half.
"Yes, I know 'close' only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades," says Carr, flipping a football in the air and catching it for his first completion in days, "and yes, I am the same David Carr that tied the NFL record for consecutive completions just a few weeks ago."
In a game such as this, you have to go with the hot hand. And that certainly isn't Carr. Young throws for one TD and runs for another.
Tennessee wins, 28-24.
Green Bay @ San Francisco
Both the Packers and 49ers suffered blowout defeats last Sunday. The Saints beat the 49ers 34-10, while Green Bay lost 38-10 at Lambeau to the Jets, which dropped the Packers' home record to 1-5. The defeat reportedly left Brett Favre questioning his decision to return this year. So, Brett, what's the deal?
"I'll tell you what the deal is," says Favre. "Mary J. Blige once asked, 'What's the 411?' Well, I don't know who Mary J. Blige is, but the 411 is this: I threw one touchdown pass last Sunday, which gives me 411 for my career. I won't stop until I reach 421 and eclipse Dan Marino's record. Hopefully, I'll be in Green Bay when I do it. I don't think the Packers want to see me go, at least not with Aaron Rogers as the projected starter. That dude's not ready, and he can't even play with a broken leg."
San Fran has dropped two games in a row after beating Seattle in Week 11 to get to .500. It's apparent that the 49ers' key to success is the running of Frank Gore. Last week versus the Saints, Gore never got on track, and the 49ers were forced to open up the passing game.
"As Frank goes," says Mike Nolan, "so go the 49ers. When Frank doesn't go, Alex Smith has to throw. Oh no! Alex is no Joe Montana, nor is he Tony Montana, although he does have a little friend. Heck, Alex is no Hanna Montana, either."
This is a battle of probably the two weakest divisions in the league. The North and West have identical won-loss records of 21-27, and they are the only two divisions with only one member at .500 or better. What does it all mean? Not a darn thing, but I don't see the Bears or Seahawks complaining.
Gore gets back on track, with 126 yards and a score, and the 49ers fight off a late Packers rally. San Fran wins, 31-24.
Seattle @ Arizona
Like the Phoenix, rising from the conflagration of a disappointing season, the Cardinals rose to the occasion in St. Louis, beating their NFC West rival 34-20. Okay, that language is a little flowery, and the Cardinals are just 3-9, so maybe it was more like a 1985 Pontiac Firebird making it's way off of a used car lot.
"Yeah, that's more like it," says Matt Leinart. "I didn't take Mythology 101 at USC, so I have no idea what you're talking about. But I do know what a Pontiac Firebird is. 1985 was a great year for cars, but an even better year for sexy co-eds. Anyway, we've beaten every single team (all two of them) in the NFC West this year, except the Seahawks. We've even beaten ourselves a couple of times this year, what with the turnovers, bad defense, and lack of a running game. But things are turning around. Heck, Edgerrin James even rushed for 100 yards. It was fitting that it happened in St. Louis, because I think the last Cardinal to do it played for the St. Louis Cardinals."
Seattle's Josh Brown tied and NFL record with his fourth game-winning kick in the final minute, nailing a 50-yarder to beat the Broncos 23-20.
"Hey, I can only take so much of the credit," says Brown. "The rest goes to my cousin, Charlie Brown, who taught me the importance of a good holder. One of the most underrated acts of athleticism is controlling the snap, spinning the ball so the laces face away from the kicker, and placing your index finger on the tip of the ball. If you can do that, then you can probably chew gum and walk at the same time."
It looks like the Seahawks have regained their early-season form, and Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander seem to be fully recovered from their injuries. Alexander rushes 31 times for 178 yards, and Hasselbeck throws for two scores. The Seahawks' defense sacks Leinart four times, and taunt him mercifully by continually asking him "How about those Bruins?"
Seattle wins, 30-23.
Buffalo @ N.Y. Jets
The Jets piled up 441 yards of total offense in their 38-10 defeat of the Packers in Green Bay. Cedric Houston ran for 105 yards and two touchdowns, and Chad Pennington outplayed Brett Favre. New York improved to 7-5, and look to be a good bet for a wildcard spot with no remaining games against teams with winning records.
"I can see it now," says soon-to-be AFC coach of the year Eric "The Ice" Mangini. "We want to play the Patriots at home in the first round, no matter what. If they're the third seed, we'll be the sixth seed. If they're fourth, we'll be fifth. It will make for great television. Who wouldn't want to watch the 'Awkward Handshake Bowl III?'"
Of all the 7-5 AFC teams jockeying for wildcard position, the Jets seem to have a few lengths lead over the others. A perfect record down the stretch is possible, and imperative. 10-6 might get you in; 11-5 will get you in.
The Jets deep rushing corps rushes for 155 yards and two touchdowns, and the defense forces three turnovers.
Jets win, 24-10.
Denver @ San Diego
LaDainian Tomlinson continued his "I Can't Be Stopped" tour, rushing for 178 yards and a pair of scores in wintry Buffalo as the Chargers won 24-20. L.T. now has 1,324 yards on the year, and joined Eric Dickerson as the only players to top 1,200 yards in each of their first six seasons.
"My future's so bright," Tomlinson comments, "I've got to wear a tinted visor, as I have been for years now. But I know I'm in good company with Dickerson. He was a great running back, although as a sideline reporter for Monday Night Football, he left a lot to be desired, except to Joe Namath, who, well before he asked Suzy Kolber for a kiss, proposition Dickerson on the sideline in 2000. Anyway, I understand that I'm everyone's pick for NFL MVP. Even Albert Pujols agrees with it."
Jay Cutler lost in his first start for the Broncos, going 10-of-21 for 143 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
"That's not going to make anyone jealous," quips Mike Shanahan. "Not even Jake Plummer. But, I've made my proverbial bed; now I have to proverbially sleep in it. And it's a bed of nails. That smarts."
What's the scariest sight a rookie quarterback can ever see? No, not being drafted by the Raiders. It's the sight of Shawne Merriman bearing down on him, with the pent-up aggression of a four-game suspension coursing through his veins. Not good. Neither is the sight of Tomlinson on the other side of the ball. Tomlinson rushes for 120 and one score, and the Chargers win, 28-17.
New Orleans @ Dallas
Martin Gramatica's 46-yard field goal with one second left lifted the Cowboys to a 23-20 win over New York at Giants Stadium. Gramatica had earlier missed a 44-yarder on the Cowboys' opening drive that left Bill Parcell's shaking his head, but that emotion quickly changed to goofy elation as Gramatica's kick sailed through the uprights.
"I thought about firing Martin right on the spot," says Parcells, "but I'm glad I gave him a second chance. Don't get me wrong. I still don't trust kickers any further than I can release them to waivers. He knows the shelf life of kickers in Dallas is shorter than buttermilk in the hot sun."
New Orleans' Reggie Bush exploded for four touchdowns against the 49ers, with three rushing and one receiving to go along with 131 yards in receptions.
"I guess we've all been waiting for Reggie to breakout," says Sean Payton. "Well, he just did. It's about time he put up some meaningful stats, if not for my sake, then for the sake of the 'Subway Reggie Bush Fresh Start Tracker.' Now, if Reggie would just slap the taste out of Jared's mouth, we'd all be happy."
Payton served as an assistant under Parcells, handling quarterback coaching duties. So, he knows what's going through the mind of Tony Romo, including fantasies involving Jessica Simpson. Not that that knowledge would allow him to stop Romo and the Cowboys; the Saints will need to score bunches to win this game. Actually, they'll need to score bunches and keep the Cowboys from doing the same. No one's stopped Dallas lately. It won't start here. Romo throws for three scores, including a 50-yard strike to Terrell Owens, and the Cowboys win, 30-24.
Chicago @ St. Louis
What are the most frightening words ever uttered in the storied history of the great city of Chicago?
"That would have to be 'Fire! Fire!' back on October 8, 1871," guesses Chicago quarterback Rex Grossman.
Close, Rex, but that's number two on the list. Number one is "Rex is still our quarterback," infamously stated by Lovie Smith on December 3, 2006 after Grossman's 6-19, 34 yard, three interception outing against the Vikings, which left Grossman with a 1.3 passer rating.
"Hey, if an earthquake registers a 1.3 on the Richter scale," Smith says, "you don't give it much though. So why should I worry about a passer rating of 1.3? I think I speak for myself and Tammy Wynette when I say 'Stand By Your Man,' even when his passer rating is lower than his jersey number."
Hey, I'm with you, Lovie, as are all of the NFC playoff teams who might have to go to Chicago. There's no better equalizer to weather in the teens and snow flurries than a quarterback who can't hit the broad side of his receivers.
St. Louis has a quarterback controversy of its own, but not involving heinous play by its starter. After last Sunday's 30-24 loss to the Cardinals, Marc Bulger said some of his teammates had "quit."
"I could be wrong." says Bulger, "but did I not see a pizza delivered to the sideline on Sunday?"
Do the Rams have any business beating the Bears? Probably not, but with Grossman under center, who knows? It's Monday night, and the Rams rally behind Bulger's criticism and play their best game of the year, but lose.
Chicago wins, 27-24.