Tuesday, January 9, 2007
NFL Wildcard Roundup
Five Quick Hits
* Congratulations, NBC: your viewers missed the first score of the postseason because you were showing a beer advertisement. Very professional.
* I know Florida stomped the Buckeyes, but how did Boise State only get one first-place vote in the final AP poll?
* Bobby Petrino will be the next head coach of the Falcons. I don't follow college football closely enough to say anything more than that I'm not impressed by the recent record of college coaches moving to the NFL. Petrino will have a lot of talent to work with, but he needs to seriously change the attitude in that locker room.
* Hated Jim Mora, Jr. as a head coach. Liked him in the studio on Saturday.
* Happy trails, Bill Cowher. Let's hope Pittsburgh hires one of Cowher's excellent assistants as his replacement.
***
Wildcard Roundups
Kansas City @ Indianapolis
The Colts are probably a better team, but can you get over how poorly the Chiefs offensive coaching was on Saturday? They ran when they should have passed, and threw when they should have run. Coming into the contest, everyone knew that Kansas City wanted to run. The Colts had a historically bad run defense, and KC had Larry Johnson. It was the big story all week, and both teams knew that.
Everyone wanted to see play-action on the first snap. Instead, Johnson ran into the middle of Indy's defense for no gain. It gave the Colts much-needed early confidence, and they never looked back. The Chiefs, meanwhile, abandoned their gameplan. In the first half, when the game was close, the Chiefs threw as often as they passed. They ended up running 28 pass plays and just 17 rushes, only 13 of them with Johnson. This was a two-score game until the third quarter was almost over, and Kansas City's offensive play-calling was inexcusable. A lot of observers will question Herm Edwards' decision to stick with Trent Green at quarterback, as well.
This isn't meant to take anything away from the Colts, who turned in their most inspired defensive performance of the season. They held L.J. to 32 yards on his 13 carries, and average of less than 2.5 yards per attempt. They sacked Trent Green four times and intercepted him twice. Dwight Freeney, lining up against an overmatched Jordan Black, had probably his finest game of the season.
Kansas City became the first playoff team in the Super Bowl Era to go an entire first half without making a first down. Halfway through the third quarter, when Indianapolis picked up its 20th first down, the Chiefs still didn't have one. When Ty Law's first interception gave KC the ball at the Indianapolis nine-yard-line, Johnson had a nice run up the middle, followed by a stuff, and left guard Brian Waters stepping on Green's foot, which led to a three-yard loss. To finish things up, Lawrence Tynes missed a 23-yard field goal. What an incredible way to squander momentum, and an easy opportunity to put points on the board.
Cris Collinsworth, calling the game for NBC, summed things up just halfway through the first quarter: "The Chiefs look really nervous right now." Kansas City never really looked ready, and I question their preparation for the game.
Dallas @ Seattle
Let's can the hyperbole on Tony Romo's dropped snap at the end of the game. This is not Jackie Smith dropping a potentially game-winning catch in the Super Bowl. This is not Earnest Byner fumbling at the goal line in the AFC Championship Game. This isn't even Nick Harper cutting inside instead of outside before he was tackled by Ben Roethlisberger in last year's playoffs. This was a wildcard game, and the Cowboys didn't have a realistic chance of making a Super Bowl run this year, even if they got past Seattle. The dropped snap was bigger, but even after the botched field goal, I was still thinking about the tough spot given to Jason Witten on the previous play.
Dallas probably didn't deserve to win. Facing an injury-decimated Seattle secondary, Romo threw fewer than 30 passes, and no Dallas receiver caught more than four passes. Witten, the tight end, led the team with 57 receiving yards, most of them coming on a 32-yard reception right before halftime. Can we all agree, by the way, that it is no longer tenable to cover NFL tight ends with linebackers? Dallas tried it off and on, and Jerramy Stevens responded with a career game, including both of Seattle's touchdowns.
The bottom line in this game was that the Seahawks played with heart, and Bill Parcells' Cowboys looked more like Marty Schottenheimer's Chiefs, sleepwalking their way through the biggest game of the season.
New York Jets @ New England
The most striking statistic from this game was the score by quarter. In a contest that was close until the end, the Patriots still outscored the Jets in every quarter. That's what this game came down to: the Patriots were just a little bit better, across the board.
Chad Pennington was one of the NFL's most accurate passers this season, with a 64.5% completion percentage that ranked fourth in the league. Against New England, he completed 57.5% of his passes, which isn't bad, but the Jets needed more from him if they were going to win this game. I'm not trying to slam Pennington, the Associated Press Comeback Player of the Year, because he really didn't have a bad game. But going on the road to New England, to face Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and the rest of the Patriots in the playoffs, the Jets had to bring their "A" game. I'd give Pennington more like a "B." He threw for 300 yards and a touchdown, but he also committed two turnovers, both of which led to scores by New England. Asante Samuel returned Pennington's interception for a touchdown, and Vince Wilfork's 31-yard run after a fumble recovery put the Pats in position for an easy field goal.
On offense, the Patriots played the way they like to, with a safe, slow-and-steady approach. They only had one offensive play over 15 yards in the whole game, but they moved the chains and didn't make mistakes. Runs by Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney, as well as short passes by Brady, consistently put the Patriots in third-and-short, and they converted 11 of their 16 third downs. Unlike the Saturday games, this one unfolded pretty much according to plan, and the Jets just didn't have the firepower to come out on top.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia
Tiki Barber's final game, fittingly, was a story of running backs. On New York's side, Barber had 137 rushing yards and averaged over five yards per attempt. For Philadelphia, Brian Westbrook ran for 141 yards and a touchdown, with an average of more than seven yards per carry. In fact, the Eagles had more first downs rushing than passing for the first time in over a year.
The Eagles were reasonably steady on offense, moving the ball with runs by Westbrook and safe, mostly short passes by Jeff Garcia. The Giants, as usual, were erratic. Eli Manning looked good on one drive, horrible on the next. His interception to Sheldon Brown was classic Eli. The pass was right to Brown, begging to be intercepted. No one doubts Little Manning's physical abilities, but his decision-making is horrible. And can someone please slap Curt Menefee for saying, "No one epitomizes 'underdog' like Eli Manning." What planet does Menefee live on? The kid was a number one draft choice, and he's gotten by on his last name since high school, if not earlier. He's the opposite of an underdog.
It would be interesting to see what Plaxico Burress could do with a more consistent quarterback or a different offensive system. On Sunday, Burress led the Giants in all major receiving categories, with five catches for 89 yards and both New York touchdowns. He also laid a pretty nice block on Barber's 41-yard run. In addition to his abilities as a pass-catcher, Burress is one of the best blocking wide receivers in the league.
Postgame speculation focused less on a playoff won at — literally — the last second, and more on Barber's impending retirement and the job security of Giants coach Tom Coughlin. Barber has been the second-best running back of the decade so far, behind only LaDainian Tomlinson. Barber was an elite back, at or near the top of the league, for each of the last three seasons, and he was very good for four years before that. Is it enough for the Hall of Fame? My feeling right now — and this could change, because it's probably too early for definite word on this matter — is no. He's a borderline candidate, and you leave borderline candidates out. Barber will certainly be nominated, but at this point, I would be surprised if he's elected. It's a shame that he's retiring, not only because the game will lose one of its brightest stars, but because one or two more seasons like he's been having would almost certainly get Tiki into Canton.
Coughlin's on-field results with the Giants are not the sort that normally get coaches fired. He has a winning record, and he's made the playoffs in consecutive seasons. If Coughlin does get the axe, it will be for the same reason — or at least similar reason — that Jim Mora, Jr., got fired in Atlanta. Coughlin, like Mora, has failed in the interpersonal area of coaching. Many of his players seem to resent him, and he may have lost his team to a degree. There's also a feeling that this team has enough talent to expect better results, and it is true that Coughlin and his staff have been noticeably out-coached in several key games over the last two seasons. Although Coughlin's job security will ultimately depend upon whom the Giants select as their new GM, the bet here is that he gets one more season.
The Crystal Ball
Indianapolis @ Baltimore
This week's games are giving me fits. I went 4-0 in my predictions last week, but I wouldn't be surprised if I'm 0-4 this time around. I should probably just flip a coin.
The obvious choice in this one is Baltimore. The Ravens finished the regular season as the best team in the NFL, and just a week ago I picked them to win the Super Bowl. They run a 3-4 defense, which has always caused problems for Peyton Manning. The game is in Baltimore, where the Ravens went 7-1 this year, and the Colts finished 4-4 on the road.
I'm nervous about the Colts, though. If their defense plays the way it did against Kansas City, they have a good chance against anyone, and there's always that chance that Manning just explodes and tears apart a defense. He's done it against other good defenses, including each of the last two seasons against New England. Furthermore, for a team that's supposed to choke, Indianapolis has played pretty well in its big games this year. The Colts' losses this season came against teams with a combined record of 31-33. They beat four playoff teams, three of them on the road, and that doesn't include significant victories against the Broncos and Bengals, when both looked like serious contenders.
If the Colts somehow escape without any turnovers, and they hold Baltimore to under 150 yards rushing, they'll win. It would help if they get off to an early lead or get some big plays on special teams. They won't be able to lean on Joseph Addai the way they did against Kansas City, but they can't give up on the run entirely, even though that's tempting against Baltimore's rush defense.
The Ravens need to limit their mistakes and keep Freeney away from Steve McNair. If they have drive-killing penalties, a lot of sacks, or a couple of turnovers, they'll give the Colts too many opportunities. On defense, the plan is simple: pressure Manning. Baltimore has the league's best pass rush, and it needs to keep Manning uncomfortable in the pocket.
I wouldn't be surprised if one team establishes dominance by the end of the second or third quarter, and wins by a lot, but I'm not confident in the pick, so let's say the Ravens by a touchdown.
Philadelphia @ New Orleans
A week ago, I agonized over who to pick in this game. Today, I'm taking the Saints. Philadelphia has a short week to get rested, and Pro Bowl cornerback Lito Sheppard will miss Saturday's game. That's a major loss against any opponent, but especially one featuring this year's all-pro quarterback, Drew Brees. Also, let's not forget that Andy Reid's Eagles do not have a history of winning playoff games against other good teams.
The New Orleans defense should get a boost from the return of starting DT Hollis Thomas, who missed the last four games after being suspended by the league. The Saints need to contain Westbrook and discourage the Eagles from running. When they beat Philadelphia earlier this season, the Saints sacked Donovan McNabb three times, and they'll probably try to pressure Garcia, too, trusting their defensive backs against the Eagles' wide receivers. On offense, they'll use multiple-receiver sets and attack Sheppard's replacements, Roderick Hood and Joselio Hanson. I wouldn't be surprised to see some misdirection or trick plays, too, probably involving Reggie Bush.
For the Eagles to win, they'll need a big game from the defense, particularly on the line. Pressure on Brees will be key in protecting the weakened secondary, and Brian Dawkins probably needs to have a big game. They'll need a solid game from Garcia. One interception and a couple of sacks won't kill them, but much more than that probably will. Most importantly for the offense, Westbrook needs to get a lot of touches, and he has to break at least one big play.
There's too much going against the Eagles right now, so I'll take New Orleans by 10.
Seattle @ Chicago
I wouldn't think about picking the Seahawks against New Orleans, but they scare me against Chicago. Seattle gave the impression last Saturday that they're not content just to be in the playoffs, that they're hungry for more. I don't get that from the Bears. They remind me of last year's Colts, or better yet, last year's Bears. I just don't know if they're playoff-ready.
Chicago's defense fell apart at the end of the season, allowing each of its last four opponents — none of whom made the playoffs — to score over 20 points. Those teams succeeded mostly by throwing the ball, so expect Matt Hasselbeck to air it out. I usually criticize Mike Holmgren for getting away from Shaun Alexander too early, but in this game, the Seahawks need to throw, probably between 40-50 times.
The Bears' offense does not match up well against Seattle's injury-depleted defense. Logic would dictate that the Bears, too, should put the ball in the air, testing the Seahawks' corners, but that's exactly what opponents want from Chicago: the ball in the hands of Rex Grossman, whose inconsistency and turnover tendencies can keep any opponent — even the Cardinals — alive against Chicago.
Despite all this, I'm picking the Bears. Seattle's just not that good, and I don't have a lot of faith in Holmgren. The Bears squeak by with a six-point victory.
New England @ San Diego
Another tough game to predict. On paper, this is a runaway for the Chargers. But that means picking Marty Schottenheimer, a notorious postseason choker, against Bill Belichick, the modern Vince Lombardi. New England's defense is better than most people realize, ranking sixth in yards allowed, second in points allowed, fifth in sacks, and fourth in takeaways. They probably won't be able to shut down Tomlinson, but they could cause major problems for first-year starter Philip Rivers.
If I was Belichick, I would start the game expecting to see a lot of Tomlinson. Schottenheimer and his offensive coordinator, Cam Cameron, will be understandably worried about protecting Rivers, so they'll probably try to run the ball as often as possible, which is Marty's inclination in the postseason anyway. With some luck, the Patriots can make San Diego's offense one-dimensional all day: running early, then falling way behind and going to the air.
What the Chargers should try to do is to get the ball to Tomlinson in space, with short passes. They can't allow New England to take him out of the game. San Diego also needs to utilize Antonio Gates. I'm not sure how the Patriots are going to cover him, but he's a weapon, and the Chargers need to shift the defense's focus away from LT however possible.
I think San Diego's defense will be fine. This unit is also better than most people realize, especially with Shawne Merriman back in the lineup. San Diego led the NFL in sacks this year, despite Merriman's four-game suspension. The Patriots don't have a particularly explosive offense, and the Chargers don't have an obvious weakness for them to exploit.
This should be the best game of the weekend. With serious misgivings about Belichick and Martyball, I'll take the Chargers to win a low-scoring game, by one touchdown.