Friday, April 6, 2007
Raider Nation Waiting in Anticipation
The Oakland Raiders will likely take JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn with the first overall draft pick in this year's 2007 NFL draft. Seven of the past 10 NFL drafts have had the top selection used on a quarterback.
Raiders owner Al Davis isn't one to follow conventional wisdom. Davis's history as a maverick will keep everyone guessing what he will do this time around.
The Raiders were a mess last year, finishing an abysmal 2-14. Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter shared quarterbacking duties and neither was impressive.
Georgia Tech wideout, Calvin Johnson, may well be the most talented athlete in the draft field this year. But Brooks and Walter couldn't get the ball to the ultra-talented (albeit moody and inconsistent) Randy Moss. Will adding quality at that position really help their situation?
There is no mistaking the Raiders need for a change at quarterback. Davis might address that need via trade or take his chances on picking up a later round signal caller. After all, Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick.
The Brady argument is tossed around ad nauseam. One of the league's best quarterbacks was selected in the sixth round, true enough. Never discussed though are all of the quarterbacks selected in the sixth round that haven't made it in the NFL, however.
The 10 NFL drafts from 1995 to 2004 were analyzed to shed a little light on the success of quarterbacks drafted in rounds one through six. The 2005 and 2006 drafts are left out of the discussion since those quarterbacks have not had time to really prove themselves.
What of the sixth round? Of the 22 quarterbacks selected during that round, three are present NFL starters. Brady, Marc Bulger, and Matt Hasselbeck were absolute bargains in the sixth round.
Wouldn't any team rather have Brady, Bulger, and Hasselbeck than the nine other quarterbacks selected ahead of them in rounds one through five of the 1998 and 2000 drafts? Of course, but that question doesn't fully consider the possibilities of drafting a dud.
86% of the quarterbacks drafted in the sixth round are not starting in the NFL. That's almost a nine in 10 chance of missing the target with a sixth-round quarterback selection. Most of those 86% are not even on current NFL rosters.
As would be expected, the odds improve significantly when analyzing the first round selections. Only 48% of those quarterbacks drafted in the first round are not their team's current starter. And, contrary to sixth-round selections, many of those first round non-starters are still contributing as backups on current NFL rosters.
The percentage of non-starters drafted by round is as follows:
48% First Round
89% Second Round
92% Third Round
94% Fourth Round
100% Fifth Round
86% Sixth Round
Maybe more should be written about the fifth round curse: 11 draftees, zero starters, but I'll move on.
The first and sixth rounds are where most of the quarterbacks are taken in the first six rounds — almost 50%. Those selections are split almost evenly between the first and sixth round, but the first round has produced 12 current starters compared to three produced by the sixth.
All but one of the 10 years analyzed had at least one quarterback taken in the sixth round. However, only two of those years produced current NFL starters. Every year, teams are willing to take a chance on a diamond in the rough. Most years, those teams come up empty handed in the end.
As shown above, drafting a first round quarterback is no guarantee. Fear of wasting a top-round pick on the next Ryan Leaf has to be nearly crippling to those making the critical decisions. First-round quarterback selections are about a 50/50 proposition — not bad given what is at stake.
Davis has to be doing a slow burn over the recent decline of his team. "Just win, baby" only came to fruition twice all of last season. The bottom line is that most championship teams have a talented quarterback at the helm. The Oakland Raiders do not currently have that critical cog.
Will Davis find an upgrade at quarterback through this year's draft? If he does, will he fly in the face of conventional wisdom and try to find the next Tom Brady or will he take the 50/50 with a first-round selection? Your guess is as good as mine, but I'm thinking Davis will use a little common sense and take JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn.
Todd Beckstead is founder of MonsterDraft.com, a tool to help you with your fantasy football drafts.