Thursday, August 23, 2007
2007 NFL Preview: New Orleans Saints
Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror
A new coaching staff, a quarterback recovering from major shoulder surgery, a freshly reconstructed offensive line, and a defense lacking virtually everything except for defensive ends.
That's what the New Orleans Saints were last offseason, but as is typical in the NFL, they were that one team caught a lot of breaks and went from outhouse to penthouse.
Well, "breaks" may be a loose way of describing what happened to them, but who could have really predicted what transpired last season?
On the offense alone, there was more turnover than a local McDonalds.
The Saints plugged Jon Stinchcomb at right tackle, even though he hadn't shown much early in his career, and moved stalwart tackle Jamaal Brown to the left side. In the middle, they picked up Jeff Faine off the Cleveland Browns and started rookie Jahri Evans at guard.
The fact that they jelled so quickly and performed as one of the best offensive lines in the NFL is simply amazing.
They were protecting Drew Brees, who definitely helped out his front five by getting rid of the ball quickly.
Remember how the Miami Dolphins were debating between Brees and Daunte Culpepper, but opted for Culpepper because his injury was knee related while Brees' was shoulder related?
Yeah, they screwed up — only I'm inclined to use the "F" word instead of the word "screwed."
Brees was part of the quarterback rehab watch last summer that included Culpepper, Carson Palmer, and Byron Leftwich. It wasn't a surprise that Brees was healthy or effective, what opened eyes was the fact that he was the best quarterback in the NFC.
But even the line and Brees weren't the biggest bolts from the blue on the team.
How about Marques Colston, a seventh-round pick who was a converted tight end and turned out to be the team's top target? How about the defense? With a number of castoffs, such as Scott Fujita, Scott Shanle, Mark Simoneau, Hollis Thomas, and Omar Stoutmire, who could have thought they would be halfway decent?
Quite literally, everything went right for the Saints in 2006. I haven't even touched upon Reggie Bush, or Deuce McAllister, who also was recovering from a major injury.
But one thing you have to understand is that "getting all the breaks" is usually a credit to a shrewd front office, followed by a bright coaching staff. Luck is part of it, but not as much as the latter point.
Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Offensive Game-Planning
What might go somewhat unnoticed from last season was just how good of a game-plan the Saints' coaching staff concocted each and every week.
Week 1 of the season — a crucial week for any losing team who is trying to build a winning foundation — the Saints come out and run the ball 37 times against the Cleveland Browns. Sean Payton and his coaching staff looked at the 2005 statistics and highlighted the fact that the Browns finished with the 30th ranked rushing defense.
In Week 2, just when you thought the Saints would continue with their run-heavy tendencies, they come out pass-happy at Lambeau Field.
In Week 1, the Green Bay Packers played the Chicago Bears, but held the Bears to only 109 rushing yards on 36 attempts. But the Packers' pass defense was exploited in Week 1 as Rex Grossman was 18-of-26 for 262 yards. So Payton and his staff followed that model and Brees put the ball in the air 41 times for 353 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. The Saints only rushed the ball 18 times in Week 2.
Week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons, the Saints caught a few bounces on special teams, which helped them to an early lead. With a dominant defensive performance, the Saints simply had to manage the game. Brees threw for 191 yards, while the ground game was used 33 times.
After watching the Carolina Panthers' run defense reassert themselves in Week 2 and 3, after opening up for 252 rushing yards to the Falcons in Week 1, the Saints once again came in with a sharp offensive game plan. They avoided the run and went straight to the pass.
Brees was 28-of-38 for 349 yards and a touchdown.
Against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Saints used quick passes to counter-act the Eagles aggressive defense.
Each week, the Saints had a great offensive game plan and you can count on that again in 2007.
Can The Saints Build On Last Season?
You might the think the obvious answer is yes, but just ask the Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, or the New York Giants.
The pieces are in place and it is difficult envisioning this offense declining in any way, particularly since Reggie Bush and Colston are a year older. But the key for the Saints to make it deeper in the playoffs will be the play of their defense. While it was fine last season, they won't be as good this year. They feasted off of the team confidence and overachieved.
You have to remember one thing: the Saints only played three teams with a winning record last year. Given their turnaround, their schedule is going to get tougher.
The Saints gave up 128.9 rushing yards per game in the regular season, but in two playoff games, pushed their average to 159.
To be quite frank, their linebacking could get badly exposed this year. Shanle, Fujita, and Simoneau are all marginal talents.
The Saints don't have a great defensive line by any means, but with Charles Grant and Will Smith on the ends, they can always generate pressure. Keep in mind that both guys were playing for contracts last year and now have their long-term security, which means you can expect a dip in production.
At cornerback, Mike McKenzie is inconsistent and Fred Thomas got picked on more and more as the season went. Free agent acquisition Jason David isn't exactly Ty Law. He'll start and will be an upgrade over Thomas, but maybe not by much.
Are They Among the NFC's Best?
The Saints will be back as a playoff contender, mostly because of their offense.
Brees will have more weapons to work with (Robert Meachem, David Patten, Eric Johnson) and there is already evidence of him making sub par wideouts look good (Terrence Copper).
But Bush and Colston need to keep developing if this team is to be a serious contender.
This offense will work fluidly regardless, simply because Payton is such a sharp offensive mind and will expose the opposing team's weaknesses, but for this team to be a real Super Bowl contender, they have to be great on offense and that puts the spotlight on those two sophomores.
The defense simply isn't as talented and will be tested much more rigorously with a tougher schedule in place, starting Week 1 in Indianapolis.
The Trend Of Receiving Running Backs
Bush may have received the most attention in this role, but the new trend in the NFL is running backs who can be split out and make things happen in the passing game.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been using Brian Westbrook in this role, but performances by Maurice Jones-Drew, Jerome Harrison, Leon Washington, and Bush are making this into quite the hot commodity.
For the Saints, with Bush and Deuce McAllister in the same backfield, opposing defense have to respect a lot of action closer to the line of scrimmage, which opens up quite a few lanes in the passing game.
Biggest Weakness: Defense — I'm not convinced their defense will hold up against tougher opponents. They lack depth at corner and it's hard to get excited about their linebacking corps.
Offensive X-Factor: Drew Brees — Put it this way: without Bush, this offense still functions; without Brees: this offense is nothing.
Defensive X-Factor: Safeties — The Saints have a good, deep rotation of safeties that need to make plays both in the passing game and running game.
Fantasy Market: Sell High
Don't count me in as one of the guys that will be reaching for Marques Colston. Sure, he had an outstanding rookie campaign, but so did Michael Clayton. All right, so he's probably not Michael Clayton, but he's not going to surprise anyone this season.
Colston also has to deal with the fact that the Saints spread the ball around and have picked up more targets. The addition of tight end Eric Johnson isn't huge, but it could pull away a touchdown or two in the red zone. Johnson has been Brees' favorite target in the red zone in training camp.
"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].