MLB NL Playoff Odds

Continued from MLB AL Playoff Odds


What to like: Personnel. They clearly have the best roster of any team in the NL. It's not even close.

What not to like: The bullpen. What a disaster, and with the fragility of their starting pitching, it is imperative that they find some sort of bridge to Billy Wagner, who has been very shaky recently (and that's putting it nicely).

Really? Jose Reyes stole 23 bases in 28 games in August. That may or may not be coincidental with Ricky Henderson becoming the first base coach in July, but at that rate, Reyes could threaten Ricky's record of 130 stolen bases in one season.

Verdict: Not even the Mets can screw this up. 100% guaranteed to make the playoffs.


What to like: Lou Piniella. For those who claim managers aren't important in baseball, look no further than this team. Sweet Lou has them in the thick of it, without Mark Prior and Kerry Wood playing a significant role.

What not to like: Historically, everything that can wrong has done so in the Cubs storied history. Is there a reason to think things will be different this time around?

Really? In Carlos Zambrano's last six starts, the Cubs are 0-6. Surprising, considering the Cubs signed him to a five-year, $90+ million extension in mid-August.

Verdict: Assuming Zambrano comes around, the Cubs have the edge over the rest of the central in pitching and should be there in October. 65/35 to make the playoffs.


What to like: Starting pitching. Without a doubt, the best staff in the NL, even with the recent struggles of Chris Young. Jake Peavy is the best pitcher in the NL (I won't say all of baseball, though,be cause it's the NL — who knows who is really good?).

What not to like: Hitting. Like every year, the Padres are short on bats. Who do you fear in their lineup? Adrian Gonzalez? Exactly.

Really? Is someone kidding me with Greg Maddux? How is it that Roger Clemens' every move is chronicled, yet hardly anyone realizes that Maddux is having another age-defying season?

Verdict: They'll probably get in, and lose in the first round like every other year. 65/35 to make the playoffs.


What to like: Experience. Most of these cats have been there before, and know how to do it.

What not to like: Rotation depth. After Tim Hudson and John Smoltz, who else is there?

Really? A lot is being made of the terrible season Andruw Jones is having, but what about the terrific season Chipper is currently engulfed in? If the Braves somehow manage to sneak in, he is a viable MVP candidate.

Verdict: With the division, all but lost, it's going to take a serious run to make up ground in the wildcard. And I think their experience will actually work against them, in that they know what they don't have to make the playoff run. 30/70 to make the playoffs.


What to like: Dave Duncan. This guy should be nominated for manager of the year, I don't care what his title is. To take this staff and have it competing for the division is insane.

What not to like: Injuries. Chris Carpenter, Scott Rolen, and Juan Encarnacion are all gone for the season, and Jim Edmonds is a shell of his former self.

Really? For as bad as the Cardinals have been all season, they've only been as low as nine games under .500.

Verdict: There is a distinct chance the NL central winner will be only a game or two above .500, and that's reason to believe. 40/60 to make the playoffs.


What to like: The health of Ben Sheets. He gives the Brewers a viable number one starter, and has been good since his return after a month and a half stint on the DL.

What not to like: As is the case with most of the teams, the Brewers have holes. Their pitching isn't great, and other than Ryan Braun, they have a bunch of low average hitters.

Really? Before September 20th, their only opponents are Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Houston. If they aren't in first by then, they have no shot.

Verdict: Because of their soft schedule, Milwaukee should go right down to the wire. They have a slight edge over St. Louis, but the team will have to do something no one other than Jeff Suppan has done before. 45/55 to make the playoffs.


What to like: The lineup. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are all bona fide MVP candidates, and everyone 1-7 can hit.

What not to like: Their rotation. With Cole Hamels out, along with the Jon Lieber and Freddy Garcia gone for the year, this is a staff that is in trouble.

Really? Aaron Rowand is having by far the best hitting season of his life, but gets overshadowed by the aforementioned MVP candidate triumvirate.

Verdict: It's all about the wildcard for this team. Can they get over the hump as they have consistently failed to do in years past? They will have a chance to make amends to their fans with their soft schedule in the last week, but I still have my doubts. 45/55 to make the playoffs.


What to like: They control their own destiny. Starting September 7th, the remainder of all their games will be played entirely against the NL West.

What not to like: Their second half struggles against those same NL west opponents.

Really? While not equaling his ridiculous first half, Brad Penny has still performed solidly and maintains an ERA under 3.00.

Verdict: The Dodgers have made the postseason two of the last three years, but questions loom as to whether or not they have what it takes to usurp either the Diamondbacks or Padres. It will more than likely come down to the last week. 51/49 to make the playoffs.


What to like: Home-field advantage. The Rockies are significantly better in Coors Field than they are on the road, and they have the majority of their remaining games at home.

What not to like: Jason Hirsch and Aaron Cook are out for the rest of the season. It's not as if either were threatening to win the Cy Young, but it puts even more strain on an at-best average starting rotation.

Really? Aside from a three-game set with Florida, all of the Rockies remaining opponents are involved in the playoff hunt, so they do control their own fate.

Verdict: It's the NL, and anything's possible in theory, but I find it difficult to believe the Rockies will be playing in October. 20/80 to make the playoffs.


What to like: Grit. After Randy Johnson went down for the season, this team has refused to fold. That, and Brandon Webb's heroics.

What not to like: The lineup. Other than Chris Young and Eric Byrnes, do the D-Backs have enough runs in the rest of their lineup to keep them going till the end of September?

Really? Doug Davis has been a life-saver for them, exactly the kind of pitcher his former club Milwaukee could use down the stretch.

Verdict: Can they hang on for dear life? I believe it will boil down to them and the Dodgers and Phillies for a three-way wildcard race, and they will succumb in the end. 45/55 to make the playoffs.

Comments and Conversation

September 13, 2007

Landon Tucker:

New york mets r going to make it to the playoffs world series where they lose it to Bostonand then make it to the

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