At just a quarter way through the end of the season, a clear power structure is already starting to emerge.
There are three dominant teams right now: New England, Indianapolis, and Dallas. Right below them are Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Seattle. Then it's Tennessee and Jacksonville. Then it's everybody else but St. Louis and Miami. Chicago, San Diego, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and New Orleans are all huge disappointments, but it's too early to throw dirt on the graves.
Chances are one of the top seven will collapse. It happens every year, and this year's not going to be any different. I'd probably go with Green Bay, if only because it's almost impossible to have a successful season with no running game. But that's by no means a guarantee. Last year's Colts set the record for worst regular season rush defense by a team that went on to win the Super Bowl. Anything can happen.
75% of the season to go, and only two teams are sizing up their draft position. Not a bad start.
Not a bad start at all.
Kansas City 30, San Diego 16: For all those in San Diego about to post "For Sale" signs in the yards of head coach Norv Turner and defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell, make sure you save one for GM A.J. Smith. Say all you want about Marty Schottenheimer's playoff chokery, but his teams never played soft. And those Chargers on Sunday were softer than four-ply White Cloud (and good for just about the same purpose). It's Smith's ego war with Marty that tipped over the first domino in this developing catastrophe.
(Is catastrophe too strong a word for 1-3? Probably. They're only one game back of the other three teams at 2-2. The Chargers and Broncos were supposed to be great. The Chiefs and Raiders were supposed to be awful. Turns out they're all four just okay. There's absolutely no predicting how this division is going to unfold from here. San Diego is just as much in it now as they were four weeks ago.)
(San Diego at Denver this Sunday is a big game.)
Fantasy Impact: Dwayne Bowe is the best wide receiver on the Chiefs since ... since ... I don't know. Ever? You shouldn't say that about a rookie a quarter way into his first season, but his talent and swagger add a whole new dimension to this offense (plus, this isn't exactly a franchise known for All-Pro WRs). Of all the lines put up this weekend, Bowe's 8 catches for 164 yards and a TD, at San Diego, has to be the most impressive. His 51-yard score in the fourth quarter to break a 16-16 tie was straight out of the T.O. mold.
Detroit 37, Chicago 27: Guess that whole "Super Bowl Loser" curse still has some chops. Unlike San Diego, Chicago does have a runaway team in their division. Already facing a three-game hole to Green Bay, and now with no backup savior to turn to, Chicago is one Cubs playoff collapse from going into a full-fledged depression.
Four notes:
1. Told you they shouldn't have traded J.T. O'Sullivan. (I did.)
2. You want to know how to lose an NFL game? Read the second-half play-by-play of this game. I'm not sure a healthy Bears defense could have withstood such butchery from their offense.
3. Lovie Smith and GM Jerry Angelo seem to be getting a free pass as Rex Grossman and Brian Griese get run over by fans and the media. I'm not sure why. It's their team.
4. Chicago at Green Bay this Sunday is a big game.
Fantasy Impact: It's beginning to look like maybe Calvin Johnson isn't going to have a big impact on the offense for the Lions this year. The Mike Martz offense isn't exactly easy as ABC. (My guess is the Chan Gailey offense at Georgia Tech wasn't quite so involved.) Plus, he missed this game with a bad back. Plus, he's at best the number four WR right now behind Roy Williams, Shaun McDonald, and Mike Furrey. Try to sell while is name is still worth something.
Dallas 35, St. Louis 7: The Marc Bulger story (playing with broken ribs) is starting to remind me of the Scott Rolen situation with the baseball Cardinals. Like Rolen, Bulger is a gamer. It doesn't matter if he's half dead, he's going to say he's fine and trot out on the field to take his beating. They see it as the right thing to do. But just like Tony La Russa should have taken the bat out of Rolen's hands six weeks before his injury finally became too much to bear, Scott Linehan needs to show some executive gonads and sit Bulger for his own good. This isn't a QB controversy. It's just the wrong move for the team to stick its broken franchise QB in front of that Arizona pass rush this Sunday.
Meanwhile, a word of caution on the rolling Cowboys: in Week 5, they play at Buffalo in the first Monday Night game in Orchard Park since 2000. They host the Patriots in Week 6. The Bills may be all banged up, but they are playing with tremendous mental toughness. This is a gritty bunch not to be underestimated. In other words, this has trap game written all over it.
Fantasy Impact: The Rams defense played decent the whole game against San Francisco, but lost. Then they played well for three quarters against Tampa and lost. And then they played well for a quarter against the Cowboys and lost. There's only so long a defense can hold out without an offense holding up their end. And now here come the Cardinals in Week 5. I'd go ahead and start Matt Leinart. Or Kurt Warner.
Stupid QB platoon.
Buffalo 17, New York Jets 14: The Jets did well to get Leon Washington more involved (only 4 carries, but 8 receptions), but a lot of that came during their two-minute offense at the end of each half. They need to break him more into the base offense and get him the ball on the ground.
Also, congrats to Trent Edwards, the first QB from the Class of 2007 to earn a win as a starter. He was the sixth QB chosen (92nd overall) behind JaMarcus Russell (1), Brady Quinn (22), Kevin Kolb (36), John Beck (40), and Drew Stanton (43).
Fantasy Impact: It looks like Edwards might be the spark the Bills' offense needs. Lee Evans had 5 receptions combined over their first three losses, 6 in Week 4. Of course it helped he was playing the Jets instead of the Broncos/Steelers/Pats, but improvement is improvement. I'm eager to see what the Bills can do against a Cowboys defense that still seems a little vulnerable.
Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 7: So I guess we can all go back to calling Jon Gruden a genius again. Great.
Fantasy Impact: It's a cold fact of life, but Cadillac Williams' season-ending surgery opens the door for somebody else, and that means whoever happens to have struggled early in your fantasy league has first crack at a top back on a legitimate playoff team that likes to run (129 rush attempts vs. 94 pass attempts through four). The question is who's the better choice, Earnest Graham (30 rushes for 136 yards and 3 touchdowns) or Michael Pittman (30 rushes for 170 yard and no touchdowns)? When in doubt, go with the touchdown man.
Oakland 35, Miami 17: Wow. What a bad weekend for Miami. Not only does Brett Favre break Dan Marino's touchdown record (and legacy is just about all this franchise has right now), but the Great Bust of 2006, Daunte Culpepper, just lit them up for 5 TDs for the Raiders. Meanwhile, Trent Green, the guy they so desperately wanted to replace Culpepper, is tied for the most interceptions in the league (7, same as Drew Brees). Hell, even Joey Harrington got a win this weekend.
At least the Marlins eliminated the Mets. The six guys who pay attention to them had to be happy with that.
Fantasy Impact: Hopefully you listened to me last week when I said to sell high on LaMont Jordan. His stock is definitely in the tank now that he had to walk off the field like he just sat on Fussily Jerry. (Bad backs suck.) But with the Raiders off this week, you might still have a shot at Dominic Rhodes, coming off a month-long vacation on a DUI suspension. He's fresh, healthy, and about to step into a lead role. Pass on Justin Fargas. His 179 yards rushing were as much a product of a Miami's NFL-worst run defense as anything else. He won't come close to matching it again, if only because he won't likely get the opportunity.
Miami plays at Houston in Week 5. If Ahman Green is out, Ron Dayne has "one week wonder" written all over him.
Green Bay 23, Minnesota 16: Everybody's talking about Favre, so I'll just tip my hat and move on: Kelly Holcomb stinks.
Okay, maybe that's a bit harsh. Let's just say he's less than what you need to win a game in the NFL.
With that said, there are exciting times ahead for the Vikings. Not only has phenom Adrian Peterson (12 carries for 112 yards) taken full control of the starting running back job, but fellow rookies Sidney Rice (second round WR from South Carolina, 6 rec. for 75 yards and a TD), Marcus McCauley (third round CB from Fresno State, 6 tackles, got beat for Favre's record TD), and Brian Robison (fourth round DE from Texas, 5 tackles and a sack) are all major contributors. They have some growing yet to do (McCauley especially), but that's looking like a heck of a draft class.
Fantasy Impact: Stop waiting for Chester Taylor to break out. I don't care what Brad Childress says. It's not happening. Save yourself the heartache.
Seattle 23, San Francisco 3: I don't know if it's possible or not, but I'd like to see the Chargers trade Norv Turner back to San Francisco in exchange for 49ers coach Mike Singletary (assistant head coach/linebackers). Singletary is headed for a head job next offseason anyway. The 49ers might as well get back their offensive coordinator from last year in exchange. And the Chargers could get some much-needed fire. It's win-win.
Fantasy Impact: The 49ers are last in third-down conversions (24 percent). They are last in first downs per game (12.5). They are tied for last in fewest yards per play (3.8 with Chicago). They are next-to-last to Cleveland in average time of possession (26:32) and only Buffalo, New Orleans, and St. Louis average fewer points per game than the 49ers' 14.
Considering the above statistics, you might be tempted to sit Frank Gore against the Ravens this Sunday. But this ain't your daddy's Ravens defense. They've given up 50 over their past two, and didn't register a single sack against the Browns. Now they're going on the road for their first West Coast trip since 2003.
In other words, start Gore.
Cleveland 27, Baltimore 13: Not only did the Ravens have no sacks against Cleveland in Week 4, Browns QB Derek Anderson has been sacked only twice since taking over for Charlie Frye three weeks ago. The offensive line of Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, Hank Fraley, Seth McKinney, and Kevin Shaffer is doing a fantastic job, Anderson is generally avoiding the critical error and WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow have the third most combined receiving yardage for a pair of teammates (742), behind only Chad Johnson/T.J. Houshmandzadeh in Cincinnati (855) and Randy Moss/Wes Welker (748) in New England.
Fantasy Impact: The untold story of this game was that the Ravens put up 418 total yards of offense on a porous Browns D that ranks next-to-last in total yards allowed and dead last in passing touchdowns allowed (12). Considering they play at New England on Sunday, that might be a problem. Just a hunch — this is the week for Donte Stallworth.
New England 34, Cincinnati 13: Tom Brady has long since been compared to Joe Montana. Now he has his Jerry Rice. This is not hyperbole. As good as Brady has been his entire career, this is far and away the best he's looked. It's like he went from playing Madden on All-Pro to playing on Beginner. It's fantastic.
Also, the Bengals went 0-7 on third-down conversions and now the Pats get Rodney Harrison back from suspension.
Fantasy Impact: The Bengals have a bye this week, so they can finally catch their breath and try to get some linebackers healthy. Then they go to Kansas City in Week 6. Damon Huard's a legit pickup for that game.
Atlanta 26, Houston 16: This Texans team is so close, but they keep effing it up. Last week against Indianapolis, it was two critical Matt Schaub interceptions in the second half. This week it was their inability to convert on short yardage in critical situations.
Three examples:
Second quarter, down 17-7, 3rd-and-1 from the Atlanta 37, Ron Dayne stuffed for –1. They go for it on fourth and complete a pass to Vonta Leach for nothing. Turnover on downs. Falcons turn the field position into a FG and a 13-point lead.
Third quarter, down 23-13, 3rd-and-goal from the Atlanta 1, incomplete pass, 19-yard FG.
Fourth quarter, down 26-16, 2:16 left, 3rd-and-goal from the Atlanta 1, -6 on the play, blocked FG. Ball game.
This team has the talent (especially once Andre Johnson comes back). Now they just need to learn how to win.
Arizona 21, Pittsburgh 14: Quote from last week: "I'll be interested to see how this no-pass Pittsburgh offense (only four teams have attempted fewer) operates against a defense capable of stopping the run. ... Just because they can win without a passing game doesn't mean they should ignore it and just hope it's there when they need it."
This week: Willie Parker got shut down (19 for 37) and the pass game wasn't there to carry the W (Ben Roethlisberger 17-for-32 for 244, 2 TD and 2 INT, 72 QB rating).
Fantasy Impact: I hate QB platoons. They don't work. They never work. This will fail. Bad move. Bad move.
With that said, Arizona is going to beat St. Louis in St. Louis this weekend.
New York Giants 16, Philadelphia 3: An unheard conversation on Sunday night:
Winston Justice: "AAAAAAAAA!!!! AAAAAAAAA!!!! Get him off me! Get him off me! Somebody help! AAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!"
Andy Reid: "You'll be fine. Quit whining."
Justice: "AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! It hurts!!!"
Reid: "So Brian, you think you'll be okay for the Jets in two weeks?"
Official: "Before the play, false start, number 74"
Also, the Giants won with only 3-of-11 third-down conversions, 129 yards passing and 83 yards rushing.
Fantasy Impact: You have to wonder how the Giants defense transformed from one of the worst since the French in World War II to a vicious attacking force capable of destroying anybody on any play. Was it really the "we're learning a new defense" excuse? Is Michael Strahan really that good? This is like if New Orleans went out and scored 50 on Carolina this Sunday. I totally didn't see this coming.
Indianapolis 38, Denver 20: In a game that featured 449 combined yards rushing, you have to leave with questions about both defenses, particularly Indianapolis if Bob Sanders is out any length of time with hurt ribs.
Despite my snarky comment about calling Jon Gruden a genius, Tampa is one of the best positive surprises in the league this year with the Browns and Packers. Do not be surprised to see the Bucs come into the RCA dome this weekend and leave with a win.
As for Denver, let's go Rockies! I'm actually rooting for Philly because I picked them to win the Series (over the Angels), but you have to give all the credit in the world to Clint Hurdle, GM Dan O'Dowd, and the scout/player development staff. Their lineup is almost entirely home-grown, and the only team to score more runs than their 860 was Division Series opponent Philadelphia with 892. Should be a fun series.
Fantasy Impact: Keep an eye on Marvin Harrison's health. Regardless of what you read, Anthony Gonzalez might be worth a pickup for a few-week stash. And you should obviously target Kenton Keith, who might have a two- or three-week run as the luckiest man in the world.
Seth Doria is a freelance writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.
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