Firstly, a word about the way the Dodgers forced out Grady Little. Disgrace. Little may not be the greatest manager on the planet, but he did the best he could with the equipment GM Ned Colletti handed him. The job of a major league manager carries exaggerated importance and once Colletti failed to replace J.D. Drew's bat in the offseason, the Dodgers' fate was pretty much sealed, regardless of what Little did.
Sneaking around Joe Girardi until he made it clear he had Bronx tunnel-vision and then switching to Joe Torre was disrespectful to the proud Little. If Colletti and Frank McCourt wanted him out, they should have fired him in October and be done with it. But this is a franchise that leaves a bitter taste with its recent actions — unsurprising given that chief-plotter Tommy Lasorda is still as active as ever behind the scenes.
The job of filling out the lineup card and making bad bullpen moves falls to Joe Torre — he of the many rings, charity-giving wife, and hang-dog expression. In between fine-tuning his HOF speech and appearing at numerous showbiz bashes, he's expected to bring back the glory days to Chavez Ravine.
The NL is so poor (with the possible exception of the Mets) that it's not beyond fantasy that he could take the NL pennant in his first year. No doubt the local scribes, led by the groveling Bill Plaschke, will fall at his feet if he does so and harangue the Steinbrenner family for cutting him adrift, particularly if the Yankees suffer another mediocre season.
Making a success of the Dodgers wouldn't mean the Yankees were wrong to cut their ties with Torre.
When Torre got the Yankees job, it was a "WTF?" moment. Joe who? He had a mediocre managerial resume, but was the right man at the right time. Without the Yankees, he's just another .500 manager, so let's not start feeling too sorry for the guy. He had the glory years, the tougher years, and pocketed some major dough in the process.
Torre benefited hugely from some great work by GM Gene Michael and previous manager Buck Showalter. Michael had the core of the 1996-2000 lineup ready for Torre to work with, though Michael himself didn't get the chance to see them flourish. Bernie and Gerald Williams, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, John Wetteland, David Cone, Andy Pettitte, Ramiro Mendoza, Tino Martinez, Paul O'Neill, and the battery of catchers (Jim Leyritz, Jorge Posada, and Joe Girardi) were all in place for Torre in 1996. So too was a disciplined approach to work (something not associated with previous Yankee teams) instilled by Showalter.
That said, Torre did a great job of coaxing the best out of the difficult (David Wells, Darryl Strawberry, Jeff Nelson, David Justice) and the mediocre (Scott Brosius, Luis Sojo), as well as instilling the fundamentals in the young players. He steered a calm ship and won the respect of the players — and the envy of Steinbrenner. But Torre needed the Yankees in '96 as much as they needed him. Right guy, right time then, wrong guy, wrong time now.
So Torre gets three years to restore Dodger pride at less money than he described as "an insult" from Steinbrenner. Owner Frank McCourt has balked at the idea of giving away his cheap and prized farmhands for veterans, but Torre isn't there for the long haul and he will be knocking on Ned Colletti's door looking for immediate help even if it means losing one or more of Andy LaRoche, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, et al.
The popular theory is that Torre will coax Alex Rodriguez to Southern California. Isn't Torre the same guy who dropped A-Rod to eighth in the order during his slump last postseason, much to the players' disgust? Aren't the Dodgers the same team who slaughtered Scott Boras in the media when he got Drew to opt out of his contract last offseason?
That said, Boras would deal with Osama Bin Laden if he posted enough cash, so if McCourt authorizes the $300 million (which I seriously doubt), then A-Rod will be in Dodger blue for 2008.
My own theory on Rodriguez, for what it's worth, is that Boras may have seriously misjudged the market for his client.
The obvious first contender is the Red Sox, the next big player in the market after the Yankees. They are feigning disinterest, even in shifting him to shortstop to replace the failed Julio Lugo experiment. He seems a bad fit in a tight locker room and Theo Epstein wants the financial wiggle room to tie-up his younger players to long-term contracts. He also prefers locker room good guy and fan favorite Mike Lowell back. Despite Manny's $19 million a year coming off the books after next year, there seems no interest yet in A-Rod from Fenway.
That leaves Los Angeles as the next obvious destination. Arte Moreno has made noises about a big splash in the market for a free agent bat, but this kind of money would scare anyone. The Angels are upwardly mobile financially and may pull the trigger, but Moreno has no track record of anything other than hoarding cheap prospects and picking up Gary Matthews, Jr. or Shea Hillenbrand types. Ditto the McCourt's.
The Marlins, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Braves, Twins, Cubs, and Mets have all been thrown into the mix, but some of these scenarios are ridiculous (Marlins, Twins), have been tried before and failed (Mariners, Rangers), don't fit because there's nowhere to play him (Mets), or fail the financial due-diligence test (Braves: too mean; Cubs: uncertain ownership situation; Giants: ludicrous money committed to Barry Zito). The Tigers could come into play as they have the need and some financial muscle, but could they afford to be paying a 40-year-old (with a Baseball Prospectus estimated VORP in the region of 3) $30 million a year in 2015?
That leaves the obvious contender as the Yankees. They desperately need a big bat at third, can afford to waste money on unproductive players at the end of their contracts (Jason Giambi will earn $21 million next year, Mike Mussina and Carl Pavano $11 million each, Johnny Damon $13 million) and offer a guaranteed shot at a ring every year.
Cashman has stated he won't negotiate with Boras once the player opts out of his contract. We'll see if that line-in-the-sand holds once he notices that Wilson Betemit is penciled in at third. As for Boras, if he can't scare the light-hitting Los Angeles teams into a bid or sell the home run record chase to the Giants he's left with the Yankees or Boston if he wants $300 million. If Boston bites — and they've lusted after him before — Cashman can simply pounce on the surplus Lowell at $11-13 million a year.
So what of Joe Girardi in New York? He's got one season of over-achievement with youngsters in Florida on his resume and some solid work on YES. This hardly makes him Casey Stengel, but he's cheap — thus easy to fire, keen as mustard, and a house-man. Whether his rah-rah act will work on grizzled veterans, some of whom played with him, is open to question.
The really interesting scenario in New York is the Cashman/Randy Levine power battle. Levine wants his Tampa power base back in the ascendancy now Torre is out of the equation and he's trying to get the ear of the Steinbrenner sons to do it. Cashman wants to continue calling the shots and building a farm system that can produce quality home-growns, as is the Boston model. So far, the Steinbrenners like Cashman's blueprint for the future, especially as they've been burnt in the free agent pitching market in recent years and Cashman has Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Hughes ready for 2008. The love for Cashman could fade with another early exit in October or a long-distance second in the AL East. Levine will be hovering waiting to pounce.
If the Yankees are serious about getting younger, they should offer Manny Rivera one year at $13 million or so, regardless of sentiment. He'll likely refuse. Joe Nathan is available next year and the Twins can't afford him now they are out of club options. He's younger and better than Rivera, who can't get Boston hitters out anymore. Nathan has a 0.71 ERA against Boston. One year with Joba closing until Nathan can be signed won't hurt.
If Pettitte retires, then so be it. He was patchy in 2007 and isn't exactly cheap. Posada would be a greater loss, though he's unlikely to repeat his 2007 numbers with another year on his knees. Despite that, he's stability behind the plate and in the clubhouse.
Girardi's brief is to bring back the mystique of '98, when there was clubhouse harmony and hardly a losing day in the calendar — Paulie, Tino, Brosius, and Bernie, with Chucky butchering it at second and Captain Courageous leading the troops into October. The present day pinstripers just can't compete with those memories in the minds of the fans — and more importantly, the ownership. With their big pay checks and gaudy stats, both fans and owners expect a ring year-in, year-out.
The trouble is all those guys have retired bar Jeter, who's now nine years older and Captain GIDP. Some of them weren't that good in reality, but were a good fit at the time and over-achieved. Meanwhile, everybody else has got stronger with all the money floating around in the game and it's harder to win the big prize.
So the media and the fans trot out the old standard mantra — they're rich guys who don't care and have no heart. It's a convenient bleat and it's mostly crap. How come minimum wage guys never get accused of "not caring?" Chien-Ming Wang pitched like Sidney Ponson in the ALDS, but because he only earns $475,000 a year, he gets a mulligan, whereas A-Rod gets crucified, even for hitting a solo homer, as if he was personally responsible for the fact that nobody could get on base ahead of him.
As Billy Beane says, the playoffs are a crap shoot, dependent on injuries, who's hot and who's not, mating insects, the weather, and plain luck. If Girardi and Torre make the 2008 version, the season should be considered a success. Remember this — a couple of weeks ago, the Red Sox were down 3-1 to the Tribe with C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona to come. They were looking at a long winter of discontent. Now they're a dynasty — the franchise everybody wants to ape.
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