Some years, half the playoff field is unsettled going into Week 15. This year, not so. Of the eight divisions, only the AFC North and West present even a little intrigue as to the eventual winner. Pittsburgh has a one-game advantage over the Browns (really one and a half thanks to the season sweep), while the Chargers have a two-game lead over the Broncos, with those two meeting in San Diego on Christmas Eve.
In the NFC, only the Saints can claim any hope of a division miracle, two back of the Bucs. Unfortunately for the Saints, the Bucs own the season sweep, so, even if New Orleans sweeps Arizona, Philadelphia, and Chicago (road), Tampa would have to lose to Atlanta, San Francisco, and Carolina for a Saints division crown. Not happening.
So that leaves us with the wild cards. In the NFC, we've got the Giants at 9-4, two games up on Minnesota and three on Washington, Detroit, and Arizona. It's possible the Giants go 0-3 with Washington, Buffalo (road), and New England in their final three, but it would still take a sweep by the Skins, Lions, and Cards to knock the G-Men to the curb.
Detroit: San Diego (road), Kansas City, Green Bay (road)
Washington: NY Giants (road), Minnesota (road), Dallas
Arizona: New Orleans (road), Atlanta, St. Louis
Chances are the Giants are safe.
For the final wild card, it's looking good for the Vikings with a final three of Chicago, Washington, and Denver (road). That would set up the Steve Hutchinson revenge game with the Seahawks, with Giants/Bucs in the other wild card game.
In the AFC, Jacksonville (9-4) could still blow it with Pittsburgh (road), Oakland, and Houston (road), but it's extremely unlikely they end up with anything other than the five seed and a trip to San Diego. Then it comes down to Cleveland (8-4), Tennessee (7-6), and Buffalo (7-6).
Cleveland: Buffalo (biggest game of Week 15), Cincinnati (road), San Francisco
Tennessee: Kansas City (road), NY Jets, Indianapolis (road)
Buffalo: Cleveland (road), NY Giants, Philadelphia (road)
You can count out the loser of the Browns/Bills game on Sunday, with the winner having an advantage over Tennessee thanks to the Titans' pedestrian 4-5 conference record (Browns are 6-4, Bills 6-5). Needless to say, Vince Young has to pull one out against the Chiefs this Sunday in Arrowhead or poof go the playoffs. Give the early nod to the Browns thanks to home field this weekend. If they do land the sixth seed, it's off to Pittsburgh for an old-school AFC playoff showdown.
(If that game happens, I demand God makes it snow at least 10 inches in Pittsburgh that day.)
And because the draft is only five months away, the top five picks as of right now:
1. Miami (0-13)
2. San Francisco (3-10; .467 strength of schedule; Pick owned by New England)
3. St. Louis (3-10; .479 strength of schedule)
4-5. Tie - NY Jets and Atlanta (both 3-10 with a .503 strength of schedule; Would break tie with coin flip)
And now Week 14:
New England 34, Pittsburgh 13: Everybody should get off Anthony Smith's back. Nothing substantive happened as a result of the guarantee to determine the result of the game. The Pats didn't play better because of it. They didn't call the deep balls because Smith ran his mouth. They ran them because Smith is a young safety who jumps at play action and the brains of the secondary, Troy Polamalu, wasn't on the field to help him out. They won because they were the better team. Smith was excited to play the biggest game of his career, on the road against an undefeated team mentioned with the best in history, led by one of the best QBs in history. He showed some cockiness, got a little carried away. Big freaking deal. Please don't mention it again.
Also, I'm not even enjoying these wins anymore. I'm just relieved they didn't lose. And now I'm going to spend the next five days terrified of losing to the Jets in the revenge game. And if they win that, I'll have nightmares about losing the streak to the Dolphins, which would be absolutely terrible because it would not only protect their record, it would make Miami fans the happiest fans of a 1-15 team in NFL history. And if the Pats beat Miami, I'll worry about the shame of Tom Brady losing a perfect regular season to Eli Manning, which is even worse than losing it to Peyton Manning.
And if the Pats win all three of those, there's the huge black cloud of possibly having an undefeated team in the regular season lose in the playoffs, which would be 10 times worse than any other kind of playoff defeat. I might actually have to be hospitalized if that happens.
I'm not expecting any kind of sympathy or anything, but you should know this is no cake walk.
Fantasy Impact: Jabar Gaffney had 7 catches for 122 yards and scored a TD in his third straight game. He was even listed in the starting lineup ahead of Donte Stallworth. If you need a fill-in due to injury, Gaffney could be a season-saver.
Indianapolis 44, Baltimore 24: I only watched five minutes of this one, but it was an interesting five: The dawn of the Troy Smith era. Sure, he was playing against Indy's backup backups. And sure he was playing against a prevent defense just waiting to get out of the rain. But he has the athleticism, awareness, and arm of an NFL quarterback, something you can't necessarily say about Kyle Boller. At the end of a miserable night, it was shocking how many Ravens seemed elated when Smith came off the field after leading a touchdown drive in his first action of his career. It was almost as if they were saying, "Finally, we've got our guy."
Fantasy Impact: Quote from last week: "I've got a feeling (Anthony) Gonzalez is going to have a break-out game in the next three weeks (at Baltimore, at Oakland, Houston)."
Gonzalez against the Ravens: 6 receptions for 134 yards and 2 TD.
(And of course I had him on my bench and got knocked out of the playoffs. Trust me on this — I'm the dumbest smart guy in the world.)
Dallas 28, Detroit 27: In some ways, this win was even more impressive for the Cowboys than the Packers game 10 days earlier. It's hard to play your best every time out, especially when your opponent needs the win much more than you do. The Lions had to have that win to save their season, and Tony Romo ripped out their hearts.
That's how champions play.
Fantasy Impact: In leagues that award points for receptions, the top five fantasy performers at running back:
Brian Westbrook (1110 yards rushing, 74 catches for 642 yards receiving, 12 total TD)
LaDainian Tomlinson (1195 yards rushing, 55 catches for 454 yards receiving, 15 total TD)
Joseph Addai (975 yards rushing, 34 catches for 318 yards receiving, 14 total TD)
Adrian Peterson (1200 yards rushing, 16 catches for 230 yards receiving, 11 total TD)
Marion Barber (837 yards rushing, 40 catches for 259 yards receiving, 11 total TD)
New York Giants 16, Philadelphia 13: Think of the NFC wild card race this way: the Giants are Rudy Giuliani, the Vikings Mike Huckabee, the Lions Mitt Romney, the Cardinals John McCain, the Saints Fred Thompson, and the Redskins Ron Paul. (Sorry, 'Skins fans. I ran out of legitimate candidates. Just be thankful you're not Tom Tancredo.)
Fantasy Impact: Plaxico Burress may not make the Pro Bowl with 62 catches for 900 yards, but only Terrell Owens and Greg Jennings have more than Plax's 10 TDs, plus he's the most important offensive weapon on a 9-4 team. That has to count for something.
Cleveland 24, NY Jets 18: Instead of ripping on the Jets again, some praise for Cleveland GM Phil Savage. Since coming over from Baltimore in January of 2005, he has steadily loaded this roster with quality talent. Their picks in rounds one and two of the past three drafts:
2005: Braylon Edwards, Brodney Pool
2006: Kamerion Wimbley, D'Qwell Jackson
2007: Joe Thomas, Brady Quinn, Eric Wright
Seven picks, six starters, and possibly their QB of the future. Fullback Lawrence Vickers came in the sixth in 2006. Corner Brandon McDonald came in the fifth this year. And that's not to mention picking up Jamal Lewis, Eric Steinbach, and Derek Anderson in free agency (and having the fortitude to dump 2005 third-rounder Charlie Frye after Week 1 this year). More than any one position in the organization, the guy making the personnel decisions has to be great in order to win in the NFL. And so give Savage more credit than any other one individual for the Browns' return to relevance in 2007.
Also, the Jets are 27-point dogs to the Pats.
Fantasy Impact: It's a good time to have Lewis on your team. All three of their remaining games are in Ohio (lone road contest is at Cincinnati). It's cold in Ohio. The forecast for this Sunday in Cleveland is snow showers and windy with a high of 28.
Seattle 42, Arizona 21: That Vikings/Seahawks game on wild card weekend is going to be fantastic.
Also, Patrick Kerney has to be one of the top five free-agent signings this past offseason. With his three sacks in this one, he's got 13.5 (most in the league) with three forced fumbles and an interception. Nine of those sacks have come in the past four games.
Fantasy Impact: If you were counting on Kurt Warner this late in the season, you deserve his five picks.
Buffalo 38, Miami 17: Is there any worse scenario for the Dolphins than becoming the first team in nearly three decades to go winless, plus have their reign as the last undefeated team end at the hands of the hated Patriots? I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it would have to really suck for them if it did.
As for the Bills, it will be interesting to see what they do with J.P. Losman in the offseason. Trent Edwards (4 TD in this one) has taken a hold of the starting QB job and has Buffalo on the precipice of a miracle run to the playoffs. If Losman comes back, they have a quarterback controversy that's going to run all summer. If they dump Losman, they lose their safety net in case Edwards goes down. Tough dilemma.
Fantasy Impact: Mark Ted Ginn, Jr. down as a sleeper WR for next season.
Washington 24, Chicago 16: This game was nothing but catastrophe until Todd Collins came through with his feel-good revival. Still, with Jason Campbell likely out for the year with a knee injury, you have to feel time has about run out on the Redskins and the second coming of Joe Gibbs.
The temptation is to suggest owner Daniel Snyder quit his free-spending ways and go a more conservative rout in looking for his new coach. I've previously suggested 49ers defensive coordinator Mike Singletary. But there's one big-ticket coaching candidate out there who would be worth the money and "here we go again" backlash — Bill Cowher. He's got the credibility to take over a veteran team, a hard-nose style that would fit in well in the NFC East, and the presence/savvy to keep the momentum with the fans and media.
Fantasy Impact: Thursday night's success aside, Collins is a significant downgrade from Campbell. And when the QB gets downgraded, the rest of the team gets downgraded with him.
San Diego 23, Tennessee 17: In one of my favorite war movies ever, "Hamburger Hill," Alphabet ("My name is Languilli!") turns to Sgt. Frantz and talks about how he and the rest of the new guys had done good in their first action. "We got our cherries popped, didn't we, Sarge?" he says. Frantz, played by Dylan McDermott in his big screen debut, tells him the only thing that happened that day was he lost a man. Nothing else matters.
The only thing that happened for the Chargers on Sunday was they lost a man, and I'm not talking about Shawne Merriman, out at least one week with a knee sprain. I'm talking about fullback Lorenzo Neal, lead blocker for LaDainian Tomlinson, and one of the two or three most indispensable members of the team. San Diego may have carried out the bulk of their comeback with Neal already out, but they have no chance in the playoffs if he's not there. (They're not saying it yet, but the chances of coming back from a broken fibula in four weeks seem remote.)
Fantasy Impact: If I'm the Titans, I probably go ahead and draft a wide receiver early in April. The guys they got now aren't getting it done.
Also, I'm not sure Norm Chow is going to be the guy for Vince Young. They're playing a traditional offense that doesn't take advantage of Young's immense athletic talent. He had two rushes in this one. Two. And of 13 games this season, Young has gone only two without throwing at least one pick. You can't change the QB, so change the offense.
Jacksonville 37, Carolina 6: Domination.
Fantasy Impact: With 944 yards rushing on the season, Fred Taylor is on the verge of his seventh 1,000-yard season. I think it's about time he makes his first Pro Bowl. (By the way, voting ends today.)
Green Bay 38, Oakland 7: Double domination.
Fantasy Impact: In the last seven games, Ryan Grant is averaging 20 carries for 102 yards. He's scored five touchdowns, including four in the last three games.
Houston 28, Tampa Bay 14: Sage Rosenfels this year: 66 percent completions for 1,123 yards, 11 TD, and 7 INT.
Matt Schaub this year: 66 percent completions for 2,241 yards, 9 TD and 9 INT.
Schaub is still going to be the guy next year, but if he struggles early...
Fantasy Impact: The Texans should do whatever they can to trade up for Darren McFadden.
Denver 41, Kansas City 7: It has to be maddening to be a Broncos fan. Against Chicago in Week 11, Jay Cutler leads the late comeback. "Finally! He's turning the corner." Then he sucks out loud against the Raiders. "Damn it! What the hell's the matter with this guy?" Then he throws a career-high four TD against in this one. "Finally! He's turning the corner."
Thursday night, Broncos at Texans. You'd be better off spinning the roulette wheel than picking this game.
Fantasy Impact: I hate Mike Shanahan.
Minnesota 27, San Francisco 7: The 49ers converted on 8-of-16 third-down attempts, held Adrian Peterson to 3 yards on 14 carries and out-gained the Vikings 284-280.
The glass-is-half-full approach: Almost all the pieces are there. Once they get Alex Smith and Manny Lawson back healthy, plus another active free-agency season (they have almost $31 million in cap room according to Peter King's MMQB), and next year is the year they spring back.
The glass-is-half-empty approach: Mike Nolan can't get it done. The offense is a mess. Alex Smith may be permanently damaged. They're probably going to lose Singletary. They don't get their first-round pick this year because of the Joe Staley trade last April. The Yorks are still bad owners, and the franchise has at least another two years of stinking, by which time Nolan will have been fired and somebody else will be starting over.
Fantasy Impact: The list of fantasy disappointments this year is long, but Frank Gore has to crack top 10. He's only broken 100 yards rushing once this year and has scored only two TD since Week 2 (both in the Arizona game in Week 12, the one game he broke 100).
Cincinnati 19, St. Louis 10: Talk about your disappointments. I know about his reputation and everything, but if you had to pick a quarterback for your team right now, would Carson Palmer even be in the top 15? If Rex Grossman had made the same throw Palmer made for a Rams pick-six, people would be clamoring for Rex to be banished from the league. When Palmer does it, everybody looks the other way.
Fantasy Impact: Steven Jackson has lost nothing. Next year's fantasy top five has to include in some order Jackson, Brady, LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, and somebody from the Addai/Westbrook/Willie Parker troika.
New Orleans 34, Atlanta 14: Michael Vick Michael Vick Michael Vick Tony Kornheiser is really getting annoying Michael Vick.
Fantasy Impact: Woof.
Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.
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