Monday, June 16, 2008
College Basketball: Buy or Sell?
As we look forward to the 2008-09 season of college basketball, it's never too early to look at which teams are going to be ones to watch, as well as the teams that will see a decline from the 207-08 season. So, in the spirit of the stock market, which teams should you buy or sell for next season?
Memphis: SELL
John Calipari, who was being courted strong by Arkansas last season, said he didn't want to leave because he thought he had a national title team on his hands. He was off by a Mario Chalmers three-pointer, but needless to say, that was the best chance Memphis had for awhile, as a talent exodus (especially Derrick Rose) will cost the Tigers next year.
North Carolina: BUY
As long as Tyler "Psycho T" Hansbrough is around, the Tar Heels are never a bad team to have in your corner, and are likely the preseason favorites for next season. Granted, Kansas proved that Carolina needs a lot more weapons from their guard play to be a national champion, but Hansbrough is such a powerful weapon that you can't count the Heels out of any game at any time. Wait until next year to sell Carolina.
Oklahoma State: BUY
I'm sold on what Travis Ford is wanting to bring to the table in Stillwater. It's not as if Sean Sutton left the cupboard bare; Ford will have some athletes to work with, and James Anderson has the potential to be the newest star in the Big 12. With Kansas and Texas losing some of their talent, count on the Cowboys as a legit contender in the Big 12 next season.
South Florida: SELL
If you haven't bought already, sell this for now. Stan Heath's a good guy, but he lacks the intensity that makes me believe he can win on a consistent basis down in Tampa. Consider this one a biased pick, but I tend to put my stock in coaches who seem to be more intense and much more demanding.
Drake: SELL
Keno Davis leaving after one season will hurt the Bulldogs, but I doubt anything they could've done this year could match last season's stunning tear through the Missouri Valley. Don't expect Drake in the cellar, but don't expect last year's domination, either.
Arizona State: BUY
The main reason why I'd buy the Sun Devils is Herb Sendek. Last season, the Sun Devils seemed to be much better than their RPI showed, and Sendek, who is a defensive-minded coach, is a good fit to keep ASU on the right direction, while building a small power in the Pac-10.
Arizona: SELL
I'm not sure if Lute Olsen is on his A-game yet coaching-wise. If this team was led by the Lute Olsen of 10 years ago, I'd buy in bulk. However, it seems as if Olsen isn't 100% there yet, and it seems like his days are numbered in Tucson. The players sense that, too, and I see a slow decline in the Wildcat program.
And finally, for some long-term buys and sells...
LONG-TERM BUYS: Indiana and Missouri State
We all know Tom Crean can coach, but we know he's going to struggle a bit next season with the enormous lack of talent he was left with after the debacle with Kelvin Sampson. However, the Hoosiers were lucky to land a coach of Crean's caliber, especially during the middle of an NCAA investigation, and he's the right choice to rebuild a proud IU program.
As for Missouri State, Cuonzo Martin was a force at Purdue as a player, and I can see him relishing his first chance to unleash that energy as a coach. He's going to turn the Bears into a very tough-minded, aggressive team. Martin will also be blessed with a chance to recruit St. Louis and Kansas City for talent, and has a sparkling new 11,000-seat arena to show off to recruits. If you want the up-and-coming mid-major of the future, it might be sitting in Springfield.
LONG-TERM SELL: Auburn and Ole Miss
I pick two SEC schools in the long-term sell category, mainly because I don't see these two schools aiming to achieve national prominence. Arkansas has a fiery coach and a gorgeous arena, Alabama has a solid coach in Mark Gottfried, Mississippi State has a proven winner in Stansbury, and LSU's Trent Johnson will definitely keep them in contention for division titles. Auburn's Jeff Lebo and Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy are both talented coaches whose administrations are just failing to make these programs anything but stepping stones. Ole Miss plays in a small, crumbling bowl of an arena (known as the "Tad Pad") that basically tells any college basketball fan or recruit that football is all they worry about in Oxford. The very fact Kennedy has won there is a testament to this guy's coaching abilities.
Meanwhile, Auburn is replacing the horrific Beard-Eaves Coliseum (which seats 12,000) with a new arena that seats a whopping 9,600. I don't care if it's a state-of-the-art facility or not, what does it say when you build a new arena on a SEC campus and you make it almost 25% smaller than the old facility? Lebo's done a good job trying to build something out of practically nothing, and he deserves a better voice of confidence from his athletic director.