Monday, August 4, 2008
NFL ‘08 Predictions: AFC West
Also see: NFL '08 Predictions: NFC North | NFC West | NFC East | NFC South | AFC North
The teams in the AFC West are an interesting bunch that have been annual underachievers on some level for a number of years. Since John Elway's retirement, the only team that has been a major threat has been the Chargers, who have always come up short in the playoffs. But it would seem that the West is on the rise, perhaps not with three playoff teams in 2008, but maybe by 2010. Let the rebuilding begin.
San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are the only team that is essentially set with their players. Injuries were the question mark heading into 2008. The three big guns — Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and LaDainian Tomlinson — all were banged up by the end of the 2007 season. All signs point to Rivers and L.T. being at 100% looking better than ever thus far. Gates remains a question mark and only time will tell if he'll be ready by Week 1.
The Chargers have a very difficult schedule particularly the three weeks before their bye week and the three weeks following bye week, facing New England, Buffalo, and New Orleans before and division rival Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis after. Starting 5-0 and ending 5-0 may be possible, but the middle six are all very losable games. I expect the Chargers to rise to the occasion for the regular season, but be stifled once again before reaching the Super Bowl.
Prediction: 13-3
Kansas City Chiefs
I expect comments on this story to be about how Kansas City was given too generous of a ranking and Denver was given too harsh of a ranking. The Chiefs' offseason moves were questionable at first; trading the 2007 NFL-sack leader Jared Allen to the Vikings for draft picks seemed strange, but the Chiefs killed in the draft, more so than any team in the past decade, picking up tons of great players, some of which will have immediate impact in 2008.
The Chiefs hit a bit of bad luck this past week when the No. 5 overall pick Glen Dorsey sprained his knee in practice. It doesn't look to be an injury that will make Dorsey miss a significant amount of time, but annoying nonetheless for a rookie to be missing his first training camp. Brodie Croyle may not be the long-term solution at quarterback, but he seems like he can be a suitable guy who can manage the game, make few mistakes, hit Tony Gonzalez on a regular basis, and let the running game rule.
The success of the Chiefs will likely depend on that running game. Larry Johnson went out in Week 9 last season due to injury. Kolby Smith looked okay backing up Johnson, but the Chiefs failed to win a game after Johnson's injury. Jamaal Charles seems to be an exciting young back who will be a significant threat with speed on top of speed. If he can learn some blocking, he will be an formidable threat as a third down back, and an obvious choice for returns.
A 9-7 record may be a year away or five years away, but I think the Chiefs will begin flirting with the playoffs already in 2008.
Prediction: 9-7
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are the only team in the division that seem to be heading downward instead of upward. Jay Cutler hasn't yet developed to the elite status that the Broncos had hoped for.
The Broncos' downfall, in my opinion, exists in their unbridled pride in their system, which emphasizes a systematic approach to football that de-values players. This is particularly viewable in the running back position. 2008 was the first season in years where the Broncos did not have a running back reach 1,000 yards. In the four years previous, four different backs rushed for 1,000 yards (Tatum Bell, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, and Clinton Portis). However, ever since Portis left, the 1,500-yard seasons have disappeared.
This has become problematic, however, in the recent retirement of future Hall of Fame safety John Lynch. Lynch was an amazing talent who knew what it meant to be excellent. You'd think after four-years of Pro Bowl-level play, there would have been a plan to honor Lynch or a public statement thanking him for his quality level of play, but no. Lynch is just as replaceable as any other player on the Broncos' team.
Success for the Broncos depends on the system, not on the players. It is evident that way of thinking isn't going to work. Mike Shanahan has been very successful at 130-78 with the Broncos, making the playoffs seven times and winning two Super Bowls, but success has been lackluster at best since John Elway retired, and the organization's commitment to its players has been non-existent. They have enough talent to win some ball games, but an unhappy locker room means less wins. It seems the reign of Mike Shanahan should be over shortly.
Prediction: 6-10
Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are one of the only teams in the NFL that I feel sorry for. They made a great move acquiring Randy Moss for a cheap price from the Vikings, and Moss decided to be worthless for a couple of years, then make his way to New England and once again be the best receiver in the NFL.
The Raiders now have two very exciting young players in 2007's No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell and No. 4 overall pick Darren McFadden in the 2008 draft.
So the potential for a potent offense is available, the question will be if the coaching staff can call plays that will showcase the unusual talents of Russell and McFadden.
The defense is questionable, but the Raiders have a good linebacking core to build around. In 2007, Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard combined for 217 tackles and 10 interceptions, but the defensive line and the secondary need to improve for the Raiders to have a chance in every game.
The Raiders (much like the Chiefs) seem to have a few key things in place for the next five years, but 2008 looks a bit more dim for the Raiders than the Chiefs.
Prediction: 5-11