Thursday, September 25, 2008
NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 4
Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.
San Francisco @ New Orleans (-4)
With a 2-1 record and a share of the NFC West lead, the 49ers are relevant again. And I guess that means Mike Martz is, too, at least for the time being. Martz, the 49ers' new offensive coordinator, is probably the one offensive coordinator to have benefitted the most from one Super Bowl win. If ever a man remained employed on reputation alone, it's Martz, who, when he's not busy designing exotic pass routes, spends his time updating his Wikipedia entry with the words "genius," "mastermind," and "the guy responsible for the Rams' Super Bowl win."
"With my massive intellect," says Martz, "I'm able to do amazing things. For one, I can place myself in the head of an NFL quarterback and see what he sees, even though I've never taken an NFL snap in my life. I'm that good. When this season is over, you'll be mentioning the name J.T. O'Sullivan in the same breath with Joe Montana and Steve Young, assuming you can say the name of every single quarterback in 49er history in one breath."
The Saints and their high scoring offense will be without tight end and second-leading receiver Jeremy Shockey, who's out 3-6 weeks with a sports hernia. While Shockey can't be certain when the injury occurred, doctors are fairly certain it resulted from the cumulative effects of wildly celebrating routine, 8-yard, non-scoring receptions over time, dating back to Shockey's days as a Miami Hurricane.
"I've been called a 'sports hernia' before," says Shockey, "but never have I actually had one. But really, it's nothing a tattoo won't cover up. I guess Donovan McNabb's sports hernia of 2005 was the most well-known injury of that type. And look where it got him. Hopefully, my sports hernia won't undermine my relationship with Terrell Owens."
I've got a feeling Shockey and Owens would get along just fine.
Sure, it's early in the season, but the Saints are last in the NFC South at 1-2. It's time for the New Orleans defense to make a stop, and when I say "a" stop, I mean it literally. One will do. Expect the 49ers to stay away from a shootout by grinding out the yardage on the ground with Frank Gore. New Orleans should have beaten Denver. They won't blow this one. New Orleans wins, 27-24.
Minnesota @ Tennessee (-3)
With much deliberation, Brad Childress made the call to start Gus Frerotte against the Panthers last week, in lieu of the struggling Tarvaris Jackson. Frerotte responded with a solid game, leading the Vikings to a 20-10 win, their first of the year.
"I've got to hand it to Frerotte," says Childress. "When he hears his name called, he's ready to go. You know, when you say the name 'Gus,' you immediately think of the nincompoop who excitedly slammed his head into a wall after a touchdown run, nearly giving himself a concussion. That's our Gus. Now, when you say the name 'Gus' followed by the word 'Oyich,' you immediately think of the field goal-kicking donkey, who practically never missed. Luckily, our players can relate to both. They are fully behind my decision to start Gus Frerotte, and I'm relatively sure many of the current Vikes are plenty familiar with a well-performing ass, particularly those involved with 2005's sex boat scandal. And I don't even want to know if there was a donkey on that boat."
The backup quarterback has served the Titans, as well. Kerry Collins has filled in just dandily for the AWOL Vince Young. The Titans are 2-0 with Collins starting, and even with a healthy Young, Jeff Fisher has vowed to stay with Collins as long as he keeps winning.
"Many people don't know this," says Fisher, "but Kerry is a much-accomplished quarterback. With his 189 passing yards last Sunday, he became the 15th quarterback to 35,000 yards. And here's an obscure fact for you: Kerry's is second all-time among NFL quarterbacks in 'fifth down' conversions, second only to Kenny Stabler."
Don't expect either team to ask too much of their quarterbacks. This will come down to defense and turnovers. Don't most games? Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan, who absolutely should have the title "Esquire" following his name, picks off Frerotte to preserve an 18-16 Titans win.
Houston @ Jacksonville (-7)
After an 0-2 start, the Jaguars got back to basics in a 23-21 win in Indianapolis, returning to the physical, in-your-face style preferred by Jack Del Rio. Jacksonville rushed 48 times for 236 yards and held the ball for an amazing 26:01 in the second half, winning the game on Josh Scobee's 51-yard field goal as time expired. They'll look for that same dominant ball control when they face the winless Texans.
"A relentless rushing attack in our modus operandi," says Del Rio. "In short, that's our 'M.O.' Mo is Maurice Jones-Drew, who along with Fred Taylor, gives us the league's best one-two rushing punch. To us, 'finesse' is a French word for 'West Coast offense,' which is just code for 'lack of a running game.' When you're rushing nearly 50 times per game, you need two workhorses. That many rushes is also an indication that you have little trust in your quarterback."
If the Texans are to challenge the Jags, they'll need better production in the red zone. Last week in Tennessee, six visits to the red zone resulted in only 12 points, and Houston dropped to 0-2 with a 31-12 defeat.
"Once we cross that red line that signifies the opponent's 20-yard line," says Gary Kubiak, "we've got to think 'touchdown.' I know some people, like Jaguars wide receiver Matt Jones, for instance, see a white line and think 'score.' He's got a nose for it. We need a nose for the end zone. But what that 'Gram Cracker' does in the privacy of his own car on public property is his business. Our business is cashing in for touchdowns once we get in position."
If the Texans can somehow find the end zone and pull off the upset, they've got three straight home games. If they can get there with a 3-3 record, they'll be happy. Houston hangs tough, but the Jaguars win, 23-19.
Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-3½)
Anytime the Browns and Bengals meet, one can expect the scoreboard to light up faster than police sirens responding to Chris Henry weaving erratically in an out of traffic, with one hand on the wheel, one on a beer, and one menacingly waving a gun through the sunroof. Last year in their first meeting, the two teams combined to score 96 points.
"It's like they say often in Cincinnati," says Marvin Lewis. "'The defense rests.' That usually means the prosecution has whipped tail again. As for the Browns/Bengals matchup, you can count on points being scored. I don't want to call out the recent performance of any of my players here, but I think the only '85' you'll see this Sunday is 'points scored.'"
If the Browns are to put up any fight, they'll have to score more than the 8.7 they've averaged in three lopsided losses this year. To do so, they'll need better play from all areas, particularly at quarterback. Derek Anderson, who was a pathetic 14-of-37 for 125 yards and 3 interceptions against the Ravens last week, has struggled so far this year, giving Romeo Crennel reason to consider giving Brady Quinn a start.
"Derek's Pro Bowl season of last year quite possibly could have been a fluke," says Crenel. "To say he's regressed might be the second-biggest understatement of he year. The first understatement, of course, being that the Browns are overrated. We're I way overrated. Anyway, Quinn's paid his dues. He's waited patiently for his turn. And besides, he's the only backup quarterback in the league with endorsement deals, so I guess he deserves the chance."
Before officially naming Quinn the starter, Crennel makes the former Notre Dame star wait an agonizing 100 minutes before making the call. With his first start awaiting, Quinn bows five times facing Touchdown Jesus, kisses his biceps, and leads the Cleveland charge. Then, at the last minute, Crennel changes his mind and names Anderson the starter. However, it matters little which overpaid quarterback the Browns start. Chad Johnson, Ocho Cinco, Choco Taco, or whatever the dude in the No. 85 jersey is answering to these days, finally shows up, and catches 8 passes for 112 yards and a touchdown. Upon scoring his first TD of the year, Ocho Cinco celebrates by revealing that he has legally changed teammate T.J. Houshmandzadeh's last name to 'Who's Your Momma.'"
Cincinnati wins the "Shootout at the 0-3 Corral," 33-28.
Atlanta @ Carolina (-9)
For any fans who prematurely penciled in the Panthers to beat the Vikings and move to 3-0, well, the Carolina offensive line can certainly relate to "false starts." The offensive line committed numerous penalties, and gave up 5 sacks, as the Panthers lost a 10-3 first half lead in a frustrating 20-10 loss. It was the Panthers' first game with Steve Smith, who was suspended for the first two games.
"Hey, I though our 'penalty-killing' unit was awesome," says John Fox. "I don't know what's up with all the false starts. Every member of our offensive line seems a little antsy. Apparently, the snap count is a lot like Steve Smith — you never know when it will go off. But seriously, with Smith in the mix, I found it hard to believe that we'd be the ones who got 'punched in the face.' But we did, and we'll have to learn from that. Losses like this really hurt, but this entire team has adopted a motto that Ken Lucas coined while lying flat on his back one day: 'What breaks your nose will make you a better person.'"
While they have done it against two of the NFL's weakest defenses, the Atlanta rushing game has clicked in two wins this year, with Michael Turner earning his free agent salary to the tune of 122 yards per game. For a defensive-minded coach like Mike Smith, a dependable rushing game suitably complements his defensive philosophies.
"I couldn't be happier with our rushing offense," says Smith. "And it's great to see the city of Atlanta excited about this team again. Atlanta hasn't been interested in this kind of ground coverage since the feds started digging around Michael Vick's place in Virginia."
Believe it or not, this winner of this game could hold the outright lead in the NFC South when all is said and done on Sunday. Are the Falcons ready for that? I doubt it? Are the Panthers? Of course. They're always anxious to get a jump start on the competition.
The Panthers air it out early, and Smith scores on a wide receiver screen in the second quarter, then amazingly trash talks DeAngelo Hall into a meltdown 3,000 miles away in Oakland. Jonathan Stewart works the clock in the fourth, and Carolina wins, 29-17.
Arizona @ NY Jets (-2)
While Kurt Warner may not be Brett Favre when it comes to MVP awards, absolute toughness, a penchant for amazing game heroics, and indecision, Warner does, in fact, have one Super Bowl ring, just like Favre. The two veterans will face off when the 2-1 Cardinals visit The Meadowlands this Sunday.
"Sure, we've both got a Super Bowl ring," says Warner. "That we have in common. But I doubt Brett Favre has ever bagged groceries, at least for a living, and to be honest, I'm not comfortable at all in Wrangler jeans. But I could be, if they paid me to wear them. But I couldn't accept money to wear jeans. Not with the knowledge that denim is clearly the work of the devil."
The Jets are off to a 1-2 start, and Favre and the Jets receivers are still trying to bond into a cohesive unit. In a 48-29 loss to the Chargers, Favre threw 2 interceptions, as well as a few other passes that could have been intercepted.
"Look, I know Warner is in tune with Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald," says Favre. "It's like they know where Kurt's gonna throw it. I long for that kind of connection with my receivers. Heck, it would help if I knew where I was gonna throw it. I know these New York fans can grow impatient pretty quickly, and they expect great things out of me. I plan to deliver, and if I don't, a few underhanded completions will tide them over until something worthwhile happens."
"Now, I know Kurt and I share a lot of similarities, but this game really isn't about Kurt and I. If it was, I'd defeat him quickly in a thumb-wrestling match. Call it what you will — 'Veteran QB vs. Veteran QB,' 'The Gunslinger vs. The Bible-Thumper.' It comes down to making the right decisions."
And prompt decisions. Edge to Warner. Arizona wins, 31-24.
Denver @ Kansas City (+10)
The Broncos are off and running, sporting a 3-0 record and the NFL's highest scoring offense, as well as a defense that makes that explosive offense entirely necessary. Denver is scoring at a whopping 38 points per game clip, while their defense is surrendering 28 per game.
"That means were scoring 10 points more per game that we're giving up," says Mike Shanahan, who is most happy when he's receiving more words of praise on Sunday's than Jesus Christ. "That's more than a one touchdown cushion, and, as you know in this business, you never know when some crooked, incompetent referee will cost you a touchdown, or some well-meaning referee who made an honest mistake will err in your favor. I think it's appalling that Charger fans are sending Ed Hochuli hate mail. Well, to make up to those Charger fans, I've commissioned a local artist to render a reproduction of James Whistler's classic painting Arrangement in Black and Grey, more famously known as Whistler's Mother, with Hochuli in the place of the mother. We're calling it Estrangement in Black and White Stripes."
As Herm Edwards has discovered in Kansas City, rebuilding years can be tough and grueling, and are nowhere near as easy as picking up a Joe Pisarcik fumble and scampering 26 yards for a touchdown.
"Despite Pisarcik's troubles," says Edwards, "he still protects the ball better than any quarterback on my roster. I've resorted to starting a guy named Tyler Thigpen from the institution of higher learning known as Coastal Carolina. My nautical charts tell me that's located in Conway, South Carolina, and I understand their mascot is the Chanticleer, which is defined as a 'fierce rooster.' Well, here I come to snuff the rooster, because Thigpen's getting benched in favor of Damon Huard."
The Broncos have to be the luckiest 3-0 team in history. They should have lost to the Chargers, obviously, and they should have lost to New Orleans, had Martin "Inaccuratica" Gramatica been able to hit a routine 43-yard field goal. Denver's 3-0 record is as inexplicable as a "negative" on a Travis Henry paternity test. Bad luck, the lack of a defense, and proper officiating calls will eventually catch up to them. But not this week.
During pre-game warmups, K.C. fans pelt Denver wide receiver Brandon Marshall with "batteries." Then Shanahan explains the irony of it all to a tearful Marshall. Denver wins, 27-14.
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay (-2½)
When you're on the road facing the Bucs, it's always a tough proposition. Not only is the Buccaneers vaunted "cover 2" defensive scheme always tough to outsmart, but playing in a stadium with a pirate ship in one end zone always creates a tricky backdrop for lobbing passes, especially if you imagine a naked Keira Knightly cavorting upon said ship.
"I don't need a fake pirate ship to do that," says Aaron Rodgers. "But that would be quite distracting imagining that image on the ship, but not nearly as distracting as seeing Jeff Garcia on the boat lobbying for a mutiny. You know what John Gruden would call Garcia if Garcia were a baseball player? 'No More Garcia-para.'"
"Anyway, I'm not sure anything can prepare a quarterback for facing the Tampa 'cover 2,' not even the Rosetta Stone tapes I used to learn the Packer offense. But I relish the experience of facing a defense designed by that geezer pleaser Monte Kiffin. Win or lose, I'll learn something. So I'm looking forward to facing the Bucs. Besides, after the game, there's always the possibility that you'll wander into a bar and find your cheerleaders practicing stunts in a bathroom stall. Shoot, I've heard of putting your game face on, but never putting it on someone else."
The task facing the Packers defense is to quickly shut down the Tampa running game and force Brian Griese to throw on a right arm that felt the strain of 67 pass attempts, which I believe was more than his father tossed in the entire 1972 season, last week in a 27-24 overtime win in Chicago.
"Hey, both our quarterbacks are a little sore," says John Gruden, Tampa's visor-wearing head coach who, when he's in a bad mood, is known to his players as 'Visor Söze.' "Griese's arm is shot, and Garcia's still mad at me. But they're both under wraps; Griese's arm is bandaged and Garcia is under a gag order. And I thought Keyshawn Johnson was the last of my pains in the rear."
Green Bay wins, 22-20.
San Diego @ Oakland (+7)
I guess Al Davis wants it to come as no surprise when he finally, mercifully, and cold-heartedly decides to fire Lane Kiffin, after stringing the young head coach along for what seems like an eternity. Kiffin has adamantly refused to quit, and has basically called Davis' bluff, forcing the obviously scenile owner of the Raiders to lay his cards on the table. I'm guessing one of those cards is 'Death' from a tarot deck, and I'm almost certain Davis' image is on that card.
"As a head coach," says Norv Turner, "I'm disgusted at Kiffin's treatment. When a coach is treated so cruelly and heartlessly, nothing good can come of it. Now, someone remind how I got this job."
Oakland's Lane Kiffin has repeated his stance that he will not resign, and will remain as head coach until Al Davis saves up enough breath to say the words "You're fired."
"I'd have to hear those words directly from Al," says Kiffin. "Donald Trump won't do. Trust me, I won't be surprised if Al fires me. I mean, I've been on the 'hot seat' since the day I was hired, so I'm bound to combust any time now. But I will not say the words 'I quit.' Those words have been said by some great people, like Roberto Duran, Terry Funk, and Emperor Edward VIII. I won't abdicate my throne. If Al wants me out of here, he'll have to pry my cold, unusually pale buttocks off the crapper himself."
San Diego wins, 26-20.
Buffalo @ St. Louis (+9½)
The Bills are 3-0 for the first time since 1992 after pulling out a come-from-behind 24-23 over the Raiders last Sunday on Rian Lindell's 38-yard field goal as time, and possibly Raider head coach Lane Kiffin's tenure, expired. This Sunday, Buffalo, with a win, will improve to 4-0, and a win could result in another head coach's potential firing, as the Rams Scott Linehan stands on the shaky ground of an 0-3 St. Louis start to the season.
"Linehan should be proud of what he's done here in St. Louis," says Dick Jauron. "He's singlehandedly turned St. Louis into a hockey town."
Last week, St. Louis receiver Torry Holt challenged the Rams offensive line to play better after Marc Bulger had been sacked 10 times in two games. The line played much better, allowing only one sack, but the offense was still anemic, scoring only 13 in a 37-13 loss to the Seahawks. Some members of the offensive line resented Holt's outspokenness, including veteran Orlando Pace.
"I respect Torry's leadership," says Pace, "but isn't this the same guy who was duped into wearing makeup for a fashion shoot on a Monday Night Football prank a few years ago? And isn't he the guy who's always being tackled by a fast-food mascot? Sure, the Burger King's a big hitter, but he wears a cape. Come on."
Linehan's day gets off to a bad start, as he is met with a chorus of boo's upon entering the stadium. But it gets better fast, as seconds later, Linehan realizes the fans were reacting to Ryder Cup hero Boo Weekly taking a bow.
"And to think," says Linehan, "I thought Boo Weekly was a Halloween trade magazine."
Trent Green gets the start for the Rams, and leads the Rams to a dizzying start, as they take a 3-0 lead on a Josh Brown field goal. But the Bills, behind Marshawn Lynch, soon take charge, and win, 24-18.
Washington @ Dallas (-11)
With a commanding 27-16 win over the Packers in Green Bay, the Cowboys have distanced themselves from the rest of the NFC as the conference's strongest team. What does that mean? Very little right now, but suffice it to say the Giants have the Cowboys right where they want them.
"We've made no secret of the fact that anything less than a Super Bowl win will be considered a failure," says Dallas owner Jerry Jones, 20 years and a wagonload of senility from becoming the next Al Davis. "Losing to the Giants last year left a bitter taste in our mouths. We don't want to experience that feeling again, and we darn sure don't want to see Terrell Owens cry ever again. What we do want are fans willing to mortgage their future and surrender their first-born in order to obtain the right to buy a seat in our new stadium opening in Arlington in 2009."
After dropping their opener to the Giants, the Redskins have bounced back with a flourish with two straight wins, and Jason Campbell has answered the critics who have labeled him a player not suited for the rigors of being a quarterback in the NFL. For two straight weeks, Campbell has thrown game-winning, fourth quarter touchdown passes to Santana Moss.
"If I could do that for a third-straight game," says Campbell, "it would be awesome. I've always wanted to beat the Cowboys in Texas Stadium, especially in the fourth quarter, when that Jerry Jones emerges from his cocoon and starts patrolling the sidelines. We've got an owner, Dan Snyder, who does the same thing, the only difference being he doesn't know a darn thing about football. The bottom line is both of these teams have creepy owners. As creepy as Chris Cooley's study habits? I don't think so, but pretty darn creepy."
The Cowboy/Redskins contest is always a spectacle, and the pre-game festivities match the hype, as Dallas Mavericks star Josh Howard and celebrity tub of lard Roseanne Barr share national anthem duties. Then, at halftime, Jessica Simpson hosts a banana-eating contest between the Cowgirls. Dallas wins, 35-27.
Philadelphia @ Chicago (+2½)
Donovan McNabb, a Chicago native, returns to the Windy City to face the Bears on NBC's Sunday Night Football, home of the largest collection of NFL talking heads on television. McNabb, when healthy, embodies the spirit and determination of Illinois' most populous city, and his pride in the Windy City shows most often when he is "blowing" chunks. McNabb became the Eagles' leading touchdown passer in Philly's 15-6 win over the Steelers last Sunday.
"I'm certainly honored to hold that position," says McNabb. "But the fact that I passed Ron Jaworski for the honor takes much of the luster off of the accomplishment. Then again, Jaws is one of my favorite movies. Anyway, I know the Bears will be coming after me, but I think if we can go into the fourth quarter trailing, I think we'll have the Bears right where we want them."
The Eagles are being touted by many as Super Bowl contenders. If you were to take their offensive performance against Dallas and their defensive performance against Pittsburgh, then you do have a Super Bowl contender. Right now, though, Philly should be concentrating on just making the playoffs. And this game could be very important down the road. Let's assume the NFC East puts three teams in the playoffs. That final wild card spot will come down to some sort of tiebreaker against an NFC East team, and another team. Well, we know the East team deserves the spot, but a head-to-head tiebreaker could end up costing that East team.
Let's see — Donovan McNabb or Kyle Orton? Advantage McNabb over what most consider just an Orton-ary quarterback, but I give Orton one edge — the ability to hold his liquor. He's never puked on a football field. David Akers kicks four field goals, and the Eagles win, 19-17.
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-7½)
This is how the AFC North is supposed to look, with the lowly Browns and Bengals set to wildly score points at will on Sunday, and the Steelers hosting the Ravens in a game surely to be characterized by defense and hard-hitting brutality. The Steelers are bound to be steamed after being out-muscled 15-6 by the Eagles, a game in which Ben Roethlisberger was sacked 9 times.
"It's not football season until Hines Ward blindsides Ed Reed with a cheap block," says Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin, who has hired self-help guru Mr. Obvious to whisper into his ear when it's time to kick a field goal. "But Ed's from Miami, the 'U,' which stands for 'U' deserve it."
"To say we're banged up for this is a gross understatement. Casey Hampton is out and Willie Parker is out. And Big Ben, well, he feels like he crashed into the windshield of the Philly defense without a helmet. But he's gonna play. Good grief, we can't have Byron Leftwich running the show. Byron's known as the Marshall quarterback who had his teammates carry him down the field for the next play when he was too hurt to run. If he plays too much for us, I'm afraid his teammates may end up carrying him off the field."
The Ravens are undefeated at 2-0, but those two wins came against teams that are a combined 0-6. And the Ravens start a rookie quarterback. So, as to whether the Ravens are serious playoff contenders, well, the jury's still out.
"The jury's still out?" says Ray Lewis. "Uh oh."
Don't worry, Ray. You were exonerated of that crime.
"Well, if I was, I didn't feel a thing.
No, you weren't "executed."
"Whew! That was close."
As previously mentioned, the Ravens start a rookie quarterback, Joe Flacco, former QB and BMOC at the University of Delaware. While there, Flacco set several school records, and had his image forever immortalized in a painting titled Flacco Crossing the Delaware. Sure, it was just a rendering a Flacco crossing the U. of Delaware quad, but it cemented his status as an icon at the school.
"Joe's college exploits mean nothing in the NFL," says Baltimore head coach Joe Harbaugh. "So he spent a difficult winter in Valley Forge? Big deal. Admitted to cutting down a cherry tree? That's just common decency. Until he wins a Super Bowl, he'll be just another quarterback. I'm not asking him to do anymore than Trent Dilfer was asked to do when the Ravens won the Super Bowl. And that's just to take a few safe exchanges from center, get us into punting range, and get the the bench for a good seat to watch the defense operate. He's done that very well so far."
Can Flacco handle the kind of pressure he'll see from the Steeler defense? Can Roethlisberger take much more punishment? Will the game ultimately come down to a battle between Leftwich and Baltimore second-team quarterback Todd Bauman? Tomlin's got a cheat sheet with all the answers, but like his others, the answers are probably wrong. Pittsburgh wins, 18-13.