Thursday, December 11, 2008
Sorting Out the AFC Playoff Picture
Remember the days when the AFC was far superior to the NFC? Those days ended last year when the Giants knocked off the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Now, instead of a bunch of Super Powers battling to see who gets to beat up the NFC's sacrificial lamb, the AFC consists of a bunch of flawed teams hoping not to get blown off the field by the Giants or the Panthers.
My how the times have changed. It's amazing what a Tom Brady injury can do to a conference.
There are a few things we know about the AFC playoff situation already.
The Steelers and Titans are the two best teams, and they'll both have the benefit of a first round bye. The Titans are a tremendous story, but the Steelers are the team to beat right now.
Love the Titans' defense, just not as much as I love the Steelers' defense. And I'm not ready to call any team quarterbacked by Kerry Collins a sure-thing in the playoffs.
The Broncos are the best of the garbage that's been spewing out of the AFC West. The wild card team that draws the AFC West champion might as well be the third AFC team with a bye.
The Colts are a lock as the top wild card team. They're on fire right now, and would be the best team in the AFC right now if the Steelers' defense didn't exist.
The Ravens are looking pretty good as the other wild card. However, their spot is not yet set in stone because they still have to play the Cowboys and the Steelers. They're as close to a lock without actually being a lock as you can get.
That leaves the AFC East.
The Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins are currently tied at 8-5.
All three teams can't run the table, as the Dolphins and Jets play each other in Week 17. If either the Dolphins or Jets run the table, they win the AFC East.
The Patriots, even if they win out, lose the tiebreakers with both teams.
The Dolphins play the 49ers at home, then the Chiefs and Jets on the road. The Jets have the Bills at home, Seattle on the road, then finish with Miami at home.
If both the Jets and Dolphins falter, the Patriots need the beat the Raiders on the road, the Cardinals at home, then the Bills in Buffalo.
The Dolphins and Jets both have easy schedules. The AFC East will almost certainly come down to week 17. The winner of the Jets/Dolphins game will likely win the AFC East. The Patriots, as it stands right now, will likely be the odd man out.
Assuming that plays out, the AFC playoffs would look like this:
1) Titans (bye)
2) Steelers (bye)
3) Broncos
4) Dolphins/Jets
5) Colts
6) Ravens
Of course, this entire scenario is preposterous. Were this to happen, the 11-win Patriots and the 10-win Jets/Dolphins would both miss the playoffs. That has never happened before. Ever. In NFL history.
A 10-win team could miss the playoffs. An 11-win team might miss the playoffs. But both an 11 and 10-win team missing the playoffs in the same season in the same conference?
Not likely.
The 1985 Denver Broncos won 11 games and missed the playoffs. Since then, every 11-win team has made the playoffs. As a matter of fact, only four 10-win teams have missed the playoffs since 1990.
My point is, there's no way the AFC is going to play out the way the schedule would suggest it's going to. Something strange is going to happen. It always does.
With that in mind, here's how I see it playing out.
The Ravens will go 2-1 down the stretch. More than enough to lock up the final wild card spot.
The Jets are playing terrible right now. They also have yet to win a game on the West Coast this season. They have to travel to Seattle the week before their huge showdown against the Dolphins. It's a classic "Brett Favre throws a bad pick and we lose a game we never should have lost" game for the Jets.
The Dolphins have the same scenario on the road against the Chiefs. Kansas City is a tough place to play, even against the two-win 2008 Chiefs. The Dolphins will lose, tying them with the Jets at 9-6 going into the final week of the season.
The Patriots will beat the Raiders. They'll beat the Cardinals, mostly because the game's in Foxboro.
The AFC East will come down to this: if the Patriots beat the Bills, they win the AFC East. If they lose, then winner of the Jets/Dolphins game wins the AFC East.
And if we've learned anything these past few years, it's that the Patriots don't lose big games in December.
And the revised standings will look something like this:
1) Titans (bye)
2) Steelers (bye)
3) Broncos
4) Patriots
5) Colts
6) Ravens
Which means, once again, we'll get Patriots/Colts in the playoffs.
Think I'm wrong? Post your AFC predictions in the comments.
Sean Crowe is the New England Patriots Examiner at Examiner.com. He writes a column every other Thursday for Sports Central. You can email him at [email protected].