Friday, March 13, 2009
2009 NFL Mock Draft
As I pondered my annual mock draft posting for this site, I reviewed the excellent work of my colleague Josh Galligan and became a bit nostalgic. You see, I have been posting a reasonable facsimile of this mock for what will be my third year, and I remember the smattering of criticism I received amongst the plaudits for my efforts. Of all these criticism, each equally valid (supposing the idiom "one's reality is made up of 10% fact and 90% perception of those facts"), no one person made as much an effort to disprove my prognostication acumen than one Seth Doria.
While Seth is an accomplished Internet sports writer and a very entertaining read, some of that criticism just didn't seem warranted and frankly, to be flat dropped from his annual comparison of NFL draft soothsayers made me realize for the first time the pain of being completely snubbed. Now many would have backed down to the negative critique and seemingly highly scientific methodology behind it, I'm far too stubborn for such a submission. Or too stupid, I guess only time will tell which is the case. But I digress. The bottom line is I may have had my ups and downs in my previous mocks, but by no stretch should those results define my ability to deign the draft future. Consider those years a prolonged slump that I have exercised all winter to, well, exorcise. In short, I want another chance.
In light of my newfound enthusiasm for proving myself more capable than some have previous suggested, I am openly challenging Mr. Doria to a heads-up competition, man versus man, his picks against mine. Since this is my challenge, I'm setting the rules; there will be no self-serving scoring methodology which best fits my shortcomings and confuses those of us who don't have journalism degrees from Arizona.
My scoring is simple. Team, slot, player all correct = 3 points, team, and player selected = 1 point, player in right "slot," but wrong team = 0.5 points. First round only. Highest score wins. Mr. Doria, this is that proverbial gauntlet that I feel obligated to cast at your feet in light of your comments against my picks these past two seasons. It is your opportunity to put your reputation where your mouth is.
For those of you not interested in any sports writers' grudge match, feel free to peruse this article and I do hope you enjoy it! As you will note, my mock drafts always include any potential trade scenarios that I see as being possible.
In the spirit of this interactive 21st century we find ourselves, I issue an additional challenge to any person who feels compelled to accept. Should you feel that you have what it takes to put your name behind your opinions (and be equally willing to have that name and those picks dragged through the literary mud should the situation dictate), I invite you to post your top 10 or 15 picks out here, as well. I'll give the winner his or her "just desserts" should you be the most accurate and, while there will be no tangible reward or cash prizes, there will be those all-important bragging rights we hear so much about.
As for you, Seth, I do hope that this challenge finds you before draft day as I look forward to having a chance to redeem myself to your loyal readers. Should I win, all I ask is that you say as much in one of your articles and that you agree to include my mocks in your annual wrap-up. If I lose, I vow to jump out of the draft prognostication business completely and I give you free reign to disparage me however you'd like in your writings.
Sparing you any further details or self glorification, I give you my picks.
1. Detroit Lions
Hmmm, where do we start? As has been noted repeatedly since December, this is an 0-16 team and they have a roster to match that record. On the surface, it appears their only "solid" position is wide receiver (which stands to reason, since they've spent 14 straight first round picks on that position ... okay, maybe not that many, but still). However, dig a bit deeper and you will see that they actually have some other strengths, or at least "non-weaknesses," particular along the offensive and defensive lines. Where they are woefully inept is at defensive back (league-low 4 interceptions in 2008), quarterback, and linebacker. The easy pick here at No. 1 is quarterback, where there is value for the position and a real need to get a "face-of-the-franchise" sort of player.
PICK — QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia
2. St. Louis Rams
This is a team that feels it is where it needs to be offensively providing good health, which they sorely lacked in 2009. Add to that their new, decidedly defensive-minded head coach (ex-Giant defensive guru Steve Spagnuolo) and you have what I would classify as the ultimate target for those looking to move up to grab a franchise offensive tackle. Unfortunately, there are three or four of those types of o-linemen available with top-10 ratings, so trading out will not be easy. This will leave Spagnuolo and the Rams at two where they will be forced to grab the best available defensive option.
PICK — LB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
3. Kansas City Chiefs (Jacksonville Jaguars)
New coach? Check. New quarterback? Check. Acquire veteran leadership? Check. All and all, this has been an exceptionally successful offseason to date for Kansas City. Considering they now are missing a second-rounder, though, the ideal move here would be to trade out of the top 10 and pickup an extra first day pick or two. With Seattle lurking at No. 4 and poised to draft a receiver of their own, look for the Jaguars to work to move into this slot where they can get the top-rated guy out there to help shore up a receiving corps that has been decimated by poor judgment and underwhelming performances.
PICK (JAGUARS) – WR Michael Crabtree
4. Seattle Seahawks
They need defensive help badly and with the draft playing out as I have it here, they guy who I suspect they've been eyeing since the Senior Bowl will be on the board. They won't hesitate with this pick.
PICK — DT B.J. Raji, Boston College
5. Cleveland Browns
In analyzing the Browns' needs, there truly is only one player in the top 10 that fits the mold of a player that would be valuable and needed in their current schemes. Fortunately for them, that player is still available.
PICK — DE Brian Orakpo, Texas
6. Cincinnati Bengals
Welcome to the offensive tackle portion of the draft. With this pick, the Bengals will have their choice of the four highly-touted prospects. Andre Smith is clearly the most talented, but equally clearly is the largest headache and most baggage-ridden option; you'd have to think Cincy will be leery of adding such a questionable character guy to their current group of questionable character guys. Look for the Bengals to go for the safest pick in this position.
PICK — OT Jason Smith, Baylor
7. Oakland Raiders
Oddly enough, there are three offensive tackles that are just about identical in both stature and workout results and a fourth slightly larger one. The slightly larger one is what we call in some circles a "world-class head case." One of those other three has already been drafted. This will leave two realistic choices for the Raider brain trust, who are desperate to protect their assets at RB and QB. Which of those two will Oakland pick? Flip a coin.
PICK — OT Eugene Monroe, Virginia
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (Buffalo Bills via KC Chiefs)
The Jags need offensive line help, to be sure, but it is laughable to me to think they will be entertaining a position other than wide receiver in round one of this draft. The stars just seem too well-positioned for them not to pick a receiver, especially with their "clean" option at WR, Reggie Williams, recently being charged with DUI and possession of marijuana. Keeping this in mind, and with the questions surrounding the durability of Percy Harvin and Jeremy Maclin, the Jags simply have to move up for Crabtree. That leaves KC picking here, and I don't see why they wouldn't try to move down still further in round one. Look for a team with eyes for one of the two top-level offensive tackle prospects to slide in front of Green Bay to pick "their guy," and I see Buffalo as being that team, especially considering their recent signing of WR Terrell Owens has eliminated the need to pick a receiver in round one.
PICK — OT Michael Oher, Mississippi
9. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is in the frustrating position of being one or two players from serious contender consideration. It isn't likely they will fill any of those spots through this year's draft, but with a top-10 pick and a whole lot of depth at the tackle position, look for the Pack to score themselves a premier offensive lineman here that could slide into the right tackle slot come August, assuming he isn't in jail by then. Many will throw up their hands and disgust and insist that he will fall out of the top 10 and beyond, the reality of the situation is it wouldn't matter if the guy carries around a duffle bag full of severed heads; he's a No. 1 talent at No. 9 prices.
PICK — OT Andre Smith, Alabama
10. San Francisco 49ers
Where the Niners really need help is along the defensive line, particularly in the area of getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. With Orakpo long gone and only a couple of "fringe" first-round types left on the board at that position after the UT star, look for the Niners to go after an athletic type that has some versatility.
PICK — DE/LB Aaron Maybin, Penn State
11. Buffalo Bills (Kansas City Chiefs)
Getting a starting offensive tackle to keep QB Trent Edwards off his back long enough to chuck it to either Lee Evans or T.O. has to be a priority for the Bills in this draft. This would almost require them to move up, which is why I have them doing just that to grab Oher ahead of the Packers, who have made no secret of their affection for the giant Mississippi road grater. This leaves KC in the most opportune position: twice removed from a top-10 pick (which will net them several additional day one selections in either this draft or the next) with their choice of one of two players whom they wanted all along.
PICK (CHIEFS) — WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri
12. Denver
I am a firm believer in omens, good or bad, and if I were Jay Cutler, I'd have seen on enormously bad omen in the recent talks involving myself and a trade out of town. However, it seems clear that new head coach Josh McDaniels is prepared to move past this obvious slight aimed at his starting QB and is willing to do what has to be done to rekindle the trust between the two. A good start would be to get Cutler some more offensive weapons, particularly some who are willing to be led, unlike his current top receiving option. While I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the Broncos go with USC QB Sanchez here, I honestly don't believe Cutler's already damaged psyche could handle such a move, so I will give him a reprieve, at least for now.
PICK — WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland
13. Washington (Miami)
With the recent release of Jason Taylor, the Redskins are looking to fill a need at defensive end without overpaying for a free agent (especially considering they've already overpaid for three free agents this offseason). Unfortunately for Washington, this is not the deepest of draft at that position, so they will be forced to either reach a bit or trade down a few spots. Bet on the latter, and Miami makes an intriguing trade partner with their two second round picks and need for a playmaker on defense. Look for the 'Fins to jump ahead of the cornerback-starved Saints to pluck the top guy on most people's defensive back boards, whose stock is beginning to slide a bit.
PICK (DOLPHINS) — CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State
14. New Orleans
If you are a gambling man, and you can find some crazy Vegas bookie willing to give you odds on the Saints using their first round pick on a cornerback, you make that bet without batting an eyelash. Regardless of how this draft plays out, the Saints will be drafting at their biggest position of need. In my version, the New Orleans gang will be mildly annoyed that they lost out on Jenkins, but they will certainly settle for the next best option.
PICK — CB Vontae Davis, Illinois
15. Houston
The Texans had several needs going into this offseason; rush end to play opposite Williams, defensive backfield help, receiver to play opposite Johnson, backup quarterback. The filled the first with Antonio Smith, the second by franchising Dunta Robinson and signing Eugene Wilson, and the last by grabbing ex-Lion Dan Orlovsky. Logic tells us that this leaves one pressing need.
PICK — WR Percy Harvin, Florida
16. San Diego
The Chargers are in an enviable spot. They are a good team with tons of talent that underachieved in the regular season, which landed them this prime draft position. They have a need to build some depth, particularly at linebacker, and have some options here to do just that.
PICK — DE Everete Brown, Florida State
17. New York Jets
Having snagged their defensive leader in Bart Scott to man the middle of new coach Rex Ryan's defense through free agency, the Jets should be able to relax a bit heading into the draft and focus on getting a speed receiver to stretch defenses out a bit. While secretly I believe that the Jets brass hope to have QB Mark Sanchez sitting here for the taking, I am equally certain that they will happily select one of the speedy wideouts remaining on the board. For now, I'm going to go with the more safe selection, but reserve the right to change my mind as the draft approaches.
PICK — WR Kenny Britt, Rutgers
18. Chicago
The Bears have publicly committed to starting Kyle Orton in 2009. With their lack of attentiveness to some of the free agent QBs that have moved around the league this offseason, I have to believe that commitment. You have to think that this would leave an opening for the obvious selection of a wide receiver, though several more are off the board than perhaps the Bears (and most others) would have suspected coming into the draft. At least one first round talent at the position remains on the board, but he'll be gone after this selection. And, as an aside, I want to go on record in saying that Nicks will be the most productive rookie receiver of this class, mark it down.
PICK — WR Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina
19. Tampa Bay
Tampa couldn't be happier having Sanchez fall to them here. Should things play out as they have here, this is a no-brainer.
PICK — QB Mark Sanchez, USC
20. Dallas (Detroit)
Detroit couldn't be happier with how their Roy Williams trade turned out. Dallas underachieved in '08, leaving them with a couple of picks that fall far earlier in their respective rounds than they could have imagined when they made the deal. Having addressed their need for an offensive leader with the first overall selection, Detroit will set its sights on getting the same sort of leader for their defensive unit. Lots of those types to choose from in this area of the first round.
PICK — ILB James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
21. Philadelphia
Philly will be miffed that all those receivers went where they did leaving them empty handed, but they will, as a very nice consolation prize, have access to the power runner that they desperately need as a result.
PICK — RB Chris "Beanie" Wells, Ohio State
22. Minnesota
Many have the QB Freeman going here, but now that Sage Rosenfels is in town, that need has dwindled. With a defense that is set and depth across the roster, the Vikings should go for the best player at position of need, which is interior offensive line.
PICK — C/OG Max Unger, Oregon
23. New England
I won't waste any of our time pretending to know what the Patriots are planning to do. Nobody knows. Nobody ever knows. No team more effectively protects its intentions, be it the draft, trading scenarios, free agent signings, injury lists, ticket sales; you name it, they've hidden the truth on it. This is simply my best guess.
PICK — LB Brian Cushing, USC
24. Atlanta
Step two in building a better team is surround your weapons with weapons. While step one was far more successful than most had figured it would be, Matt Ryan could really use a top-tier tight end.
PICK — TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State
25. Miami (Washington)
Having successfully traded down, the Redskins will be in a much more advantageous position to draft the player they need in Taylor's replacement. While LSU's Tyson Jackson is more highly acclaimed, he is more of a 3-4 end or 4-3 tackle, which doesn't play well into Washington's defensive scheme. A more fitting pick would be closer in stature to Taylor, with good height and strength, but less bulk.
PICK (REDSKINS) — DE Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech
26. Baltimore
Losing Bart Scott left one big hole in that defensive front seven. Even with Ray Lewis re-signing, it still makes good business sense to pick up some depth at the linebacker position.
PICK — LB Rey Maualuga, USC
27. Indianapolis (Detroit)
In the first post-Tony Dungy era draft, Indy is in a prime spot to move out, especially considering the run on wide receivers leaves slim pickings for those in and around this slot. Look for the aggressive Lions to move in here packaging their second round pick with one or more of their latter round selections, as there sits on the board a very inviting option at RB.
PICK (LIONS) — Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
28. Philadelphia (Cleveland)
Recent history tells me that the Eagles will make a move, either up or down, on draft day. Seeing the situation play out has it has, smart money has the Browns aggressively trading in the back end of round one to grab a running back that they have scouted heavily in recent weeks.
PICK (BROWNS) — RB LeSean McCoy, Pittsburgh
29. New York Giants
The Giants are relatively content picking here, though trading down is a possibility. Look for the team to build some depth on defense.
PICK — DE Tyson Jackson, LSU
30. Tennessee
What do you get a team on the rise that seemingly has some of everything? Depth along the offensive line.
PICK — OT Eben Britton, Arizona
31. Arizona
What do you get a team on the rise that seemingly has done everything it could to screw up its offseason? Depth at one of those positions that it let slip away through free agency.
PICK — DE Larry English, Northern Illinois
32. Pittsburgh (Chicago)
If you are Pittsburgh, why would you not trade out of this slot? There isn't a good reason. Even though I've already stated that Chicago would look to grab a QB later, I also sense that they are big on Josh Freeman. Few expect the 6'6" signal caller to still be on the board here, so if he is, look for the Bears to make a move.
PICK (BEARS) — QB Josh Freeman, Kansas State
There you have it: version one of my mock NFL draft for 2009. As always, I don't claim to be perfect, so if you're betting on these picks, you're doing so at your own risk. For those of you that will take me up on my little friendly competition I say, "may the best man (or woman) win".
And as always, I welcome any criticism that may come my way (I'm looking at you, Seth).