Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Resolving the AL MVP Wars
Okay, so the Minnesota Twins are suddenly (so it seems) back in the American League Central race, and possibly for keeps. Helps bump up Joe Mauer's Most Valuable Player campaign, no?
Well, not necessarily. For one thing, the Twins got back into the AL Central race as much because the Tigers haven't been able to hang onto what was once a decent enough division lead as by their own at least survivable baseball. And for the Twins, it's either win the Central or be gone for the winter.
The AL Central may not be the best division in baseball, but a team doesn't exactly look like it's been yanked up by its own stirrups when they suddenly find themselves on the threshold of sweeping a team that's been falling apart in the heat of the stretch.
It speaks well of the Twins that they could close the gap to a single game with a weekend sweep. But does it do Mauer — who tied it up at one all with a first-inning bomb, then drew a free pass that helped to lubricate the Twins' late-game comeback win (the Tigers took a 2-1 lead past the seventh) Saturday — any MVP favors?
Maybe not. Mauer, like the Empire Emeritus's Alex Rodriguez, didn't suit up for the season until May. Mauer has out-batted A-Rod by almost a hundred points and reached base a little more often while out-slugging the Yankee third baseman enough, but they're separated by two bombs and one run batted in. But their teams have very different records with each man in the lineup, even if you removed both men from the rosters and can argue the Yankees are still a much better team.
Month by month, here they are:
THE TWINS, WITH JOE MAUER IN THE LINEUP — May, 13-15. June, 14-12. July, 12-12. August, 14-14. September, 10-7.
THE YANKEES, WITH ALEX RODRIGUEZ IN THE LINEUP — May, 16-6. June, 14-11. July, 16-9. August, 18-7. September, 11-5.
That's 22 games more that Mauer's team lost with him in the lineup than Rodriguez's. That's also 12 games more that A-Rod's team won with him in the lineup.
You can argue that Mauer's been the better player this season to date. No contradiction here. But if you hold to the idea that the best player isn't necessarily the most valuable player, in terms of who's doing what to help his teams win more, it's going to be something of a tough sell convincing even the most recalcitrant Yankee hater that Joe Mauer has been more valuable to his team than Alex Rodriguez has been to his.
While I was at it, I took a look at Justin Moreneau, the Twins' first baseman down for the season with a stress fracture in his back ... with his team, oddly enough, 5-0 since he went down. He was also leading the Twins in bombs (30, though Mauer could pass him before it's all over) and ribs (100) when he went down. Morneau suited up from the word "go" in April, but here's how the Twins have looked with him in the lineup.
THE TWINS WITH JUSTIN MORENEAU IN THE LINEUP — April, 11-11. May, 14-16. June, 15-11. July, 12-12. August, 9-9. September, 4-7.
You see the Twins lost exactly the same number of games more with Morneau as with Mauer in May; two fewer with Morneau than with Mauer in June; and, played .500 ball with either/or in the lineups in July and August. And, without Mauer but with Morneau, the Twins spent April as a .500 ball club.
Now, look at September, allowing for Morneau having a little back trouble before he finally went down for the count: with Mauer, the Twins until Saturday morning were two games over .500; with Morneau, they were three games under.
It won't bump Mauer up noticeably in the American League MVP race if you believe that winning counts and the Twins haven't exactly been as much of a better team with him than the Yankees (who had a far better team on paper, anyway) have been with A-Rod.
And there's another Yankee making a very powerful MVP case, as well. He's produced more runs on the season to date than either Mauer or A-Rod. Last I looked, putting runs on the scoreboard was the name of the offensive game.
THE YANKEES WITH MARK TEIXIERA IN THE LINEUP — April, 11-8. May, 17-11. June, 15-10. July, 18-9. August, 21-7. September, 11-6.
Now, take away Teixiera's April. The Yankees in May won three more games with him in the lineup than with A-Rod while losing the same number of games. In June, they won one more and lost one fewer with Teixiera than with A-Rod; in July, two more wins and the same number of losses. Now, look at August, the beginning of the stretch, when the Yankees are pulling away from the American League East pack in earnest. With A-Rod in the lineup, the Yankees were 18-7. But with Teixiera in the lineup, they were 21-7. In September through Sunday morning, the Yankees with A-Rod are 10-5 but with Teixiera it's 11-6, pretty much the same winning percentage.
The Yankees' total record with Mark Teixiera in the lineup from May through Sunday morning is 82-43. Balance it out and you have three more wins in favor of Teixiera. That accounts for exactly half the Yankee lead in the AL East. And it makes Teixiera a bona fide MVP candidate, at least A-Rod's equal if you count their concurrent playing time, and certainly Mauer's superior if you believe that winning means something.
Mauer's season at the plate isn't something to dismiss out of hand. He may well finish off with the best offensive season ever produced by any catcher who ever played the game, even if Johnny Bench — the number two catcher all-time — may give you a decent argument, even if Bench in the seasons in question was the superior all-around catcher.
(In a tougher home park, Bench was considerably more run productive, though you can argue concurrently that Mauer hasn't had the yummy advantage of the kind of teammates Bench happened to have. Unless there's a Big Twin Machine in business that I haven't caught onto just yet.)
By the way, there's yet another Yankee in the MVP conversation. And if you look at his case by way of how his team has done with him in the lineup through Sunday morning, he's got a pretty solid MVP case in his own right — and on the grounds that get dismissed easily enough because he isn't quite the stat monster his competition seems to be thus far.
THE YANKEES WITH THE CAPTAIN IN THE LINEUP — April, 12-10. May, 16-10. June, 12-10. July, 18-9. August, 21-7. September, 12-5.
Remove April as with Teixiera, to even him out with A-Rod, and you get this: the same number of wins but four more losses in May; two fewer wins, but one less loss in June; two more wins with the same number of losses in July; three more wins and the same number of losses in August; and one more win and the same number of losses in September.
Now, compare him to Teixiera: one more win, two more losses in April; one less win but one less loss in May; three less wins but the same number of losses in June; the same team won-lost record in July and August; and, one more win and one less loss in September.
I'd have to say that, in terms of the team winning percentage with each man in the lineup, and counting each man from May forward (we're cutting A-Rod the injury slack, obviously), Derek Jeter wins ... by a nose:
THE YANKEES WITH TEIXIERA IN THE LINEUP — .656.
THE YANKEES WITH A-ROD IN THE LINEUP — .627.
THE YANKEES WITH JETER IN THE LINEUP — .658.
THE TWINS WITH MAUER IN THE LINEUP — .521.
You can (you should) adjust a little bit for Mauer having not quite the caliber of teammates Mark Teixiera, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter have. (Wouldn't it be delicious to think of how Mauer might produce with the Yankees', never mind the Big Red Machine's, kind of lineup protection?) But even if you make the proper enough adjustment I think you may discover that Mauer does not have the American League MVP case you might think him to have if you look at his batting stats alone.
Not until the Twins can nail down the AL Central, anyway. If they can nail the division down, that is. And even then...
THE BOSTON RED SOX WITH KEVIN YOUKILIS IN THE LINEUP — April, 13-8. May, 8-8. June, 18-8. July, 12-12. August, 14-9. September, 9-4.
THE BOSTON RED SOX WITH JASON BAY IN THE LINEUP — April, 14-8. May, 14-14. June, 17-8. July, 13-12. August: 14-8. September, 11-5.
The guy they used to call the Greek God of Walks is having a rather nice season himself. He's more run productive than Mauer; he's batting higher than A-Rod. Bay is also more run productive than Mauer. Incidentally, his team had only one month in double-figure losses with Youkilis in their lineup with two for Bay; there were four double-figure loss months for Mauer's Twins, three each for Jeter's Yankees and Morneau's Twins, two for Teixiera's Yankees, and one for A-Rod's Yankees.
Still...
THE RED SOX WITH YOUKILIS IN THE LINEUP — .601.
THE RED SOX WITH BAY IN THE LINEUP — .601.
The Red Sox haven't been better with Youkilis and Bay in the lineup than the Yankees with Jeter, A-Rod, and Teixiera, but they have been better — by 80 points — than the Twins have been with Mauer in the lineup. The Red Sox are farther back in the American League East, but they have a virtual lock on the wild card that the Twins — being 12 and a half back of the Red Sox in that pack — can't hope to pick.
Is Joe Mauer the most valuable Twin? No questions asked. Is he the best player in the American League this season? He makes a powerful case. But is he the most valuable player in the American League? Extremely debatable.
And to think there remain 14 regular-season games for the Twins to play and for Joe Mauer to make his irrevocable case. He added to his case reasonably enough Saturday.