Monday, October 26, 2009
82 Things to Watch For This NBA Season (Pt. 4)
The NBA season is just a day away.
Tomorrow, we'll get our first TNT double-header, our first look at the number one overall pick, our first look at the defending champs, our first look at LeBron James, and our first look at Craig Sager's suit.
But before we start living in the present and start the grind of another great season on NBA basketball, let's take one last look ahead and examine the Western Conference.
Today, in the fourth and final installment of SC's month-long NBA season preview "82 Things to Watch For This NBA Season," we break down the Western Conference to see which team in NBA's big brother of a conference has the best chance to come out on top when the dust settles on the regular season this April.
Lottery Teams
15. Sacramento Kings
Projected Record: 14-68
It isn't often that the worst team in the league actually gets worse, but I have a feeling it might happen this year.
The Kings won just 17 games last season, the fewest in franchise history. Clearly, some changes needed to be made this offseason.
So what did the kings do? Well, basically, nothing.
Their big offseason moves were Desmond Mason and Sean May. Ouch.
They drafted Tyreke Evans with the fourth overall pick. I have nothing against Evans, he could very well turn out to be a solid player. But as of right now, he's still fighting for minutes with Beno Udrih. I know it's tough for rookie point guards to come in and make an immediate impact, but when you don't establish yourself as head and shoulders better than Beno Udrih during training camp, the "bust" writing is on the wall.
Things have already gone bad for the Kings, with Francisco Garcia breaking his wrist after an exercise ball burst during a routine weightlifting exercise.
Needless to say, Kings fans (if there are any left, and judging by last season's attendance figures, there aren't many) are in for a long season.
14. Golden State Warriors
Projected Record: 20-62
What is in the water in Oakland? The only professional sports team that is even close to as dysfunctional as the Warriors is the Raiders.
Heading into this season, the co-captains of this team were Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson. Both players showed up on media day and acted like the girls on MTV's "Super Sweet 16" whose parents stupidly bought them a Range Rover instead of a BMW, badmouthing the organization and making it very known that they have no desire to continue playing in Golden State.
My prediction: both Ellis and Jackson get "hurt" very early in the season, and both of them spend weeks rehabbing the always troublesome "back spasms" or "knee tendinitis" injuries that always seem to plague unhappy players.
13. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Record: 22-60
On paper, the Grizzlies actually got a lot better this offseason. They added one of the NBA's greatest scorers of all-time and a guy who averages 16.7 points and 8.3 rebounds for his career. How does that result in two less wins than they had in 2009?
Well, on paper, you don't have to deal with two of the biggest head cases in the NBA, Allen Iverson and Zach Randolph. These guys have been cancers on their teams in every stop they've made in the NBA, and I don't see Memphis being any different.
By the time it's all said and done this season, it's going to be the core of O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, and Marc Gasol that get the bulk of the minutes. That's a decent core, but it's the same core that won just 24 games last season.
Bringing in Iverson and Randolph was all smoke and mirrors. Make no mistake; the Grizzlies will be bad yet again this season.
12. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Record: 25-57
I really wanted to root for the Timberwolves this season. I'm not really sure, but I think that I may be in the minority when I say I was legitimately excited to see Ricky Rubio play in the NBA this season.
Of course, that didn't happen.
Even still, I was excited to watch Kevin Love develop. He was a rebounding machine in his rookie season last year. I was hoping that he'd develop into a Kevin Willis type madman on the glass and he'd be really fun to watch.
Of course, that won't happen, either. At least not right away. Love broke his hand in the preseason and he'll be out for the first 6-8 weeks of the season.
Now, the Wolves are left with Al Jefferson, and pretty much nothing else. Johnny Flynn intrigues me, but we already talked about how hard it is for rookie point guards to come in and be good right away.
It could be the all-star break before we finally see this team finally reach their apex this season. By then, they'll be 10-15 games back of the playoffs.
I want to root for the T-Wolves, I really do, but they're making it really hard right now.
Maybe next season.
11. Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Record: 30-52
Really, the only reason this isn't a borderline playoff team is because they are the freakin' Clippers.
They have talent at every position on the floor.
They have the number one overall pick in Blake Griffin, who has drawn rave reviews this preseason.
They have little to no expectations coming into this season because, like I said, they are the freakin' Clippers. They are basically playing with house money because no one expects anything from them. They should be able to sneak up on teams, especially early in the season.
In theory, this should be the one team in the West that is in the best position to have a breakout season.
But, they are the freakin' Clippers. They'll lose 50 games this year. I don't know how, but they will.
10. Houston Rockets
Projected Record: 32-50
The Rockets might be the NBA's version of a "Moneyball" team, but all the number crunching in the world can't make up for the fact that Yao is going to miss the entire season.
And while people are debating whether the Ron Artest/Trevor Ariza swap will end up hurting the Lakers, there is no debate in my mind that it works out terribly for the Rockets.
Last season, the Rockets counted on Artest to do a lot for them offensively. So much, in fact, that he took the more shots than anyone on the team.
I like Ariza, but he has nowhere near the offensive game that Artest has. If the Rockets are asking him to come in and fill that role and be a focal point on offense, they are going to find themselves in a world of hurt. Ariza is and always will be a role player. Role players should never be asked to lead the team in shots.
But with Yao and McGrady hurt (again), that seems like exactly what the Rockets are going to ask from Ariza, and it's not going to end well.
9. Phoenix Suns
Projected Record: 35-47
Nothing makes me happier than this prediction. It's no secret that I hate the Phoenix Suns and everything about them. But for the better part of the past decade, I have to admit, whether I liked it or not, they were a pretty damn good team.
So it's with great joy that for the first time since I started with Sports Central over three years ago that I can firmly say, without my emotions getting in the way, that the Phoenix Suns won't be any good this season.
Steve Kerr laid the foundation last season when he made it very clear that the team needed to save money, and he traded away some of their key players.
I've already predicted once this preseason that Amar'e Stoudemire will be traded at some point in this season, and I stand by that.
That means by February the best players on this team will be whatever's left of Steve Nash and Jason Richardson.
It takes a lot more than that to make the postseason, especially in the West.
You can bet that I'll be on my couch nodding in approval several times this season as I flip over to a Suns game on the League Pass to watch them struggle to keep teams under 70 points in the first half.
Playoff Teams
8. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Record: 41-41
If you couldn't already tell, I'm predicting a monster breakout season from the Thunder.
For some reason, one of my die-hard NBA fan friends fell in love with the Thunder last season. Despite having no ties to any of the players, living over 2,000 miles away, and having next to no interest in the team whatsoever when they were in Seattle, he absolutely loved them.
Naturally, I asked him to explain this sudden and bizarre love affair with one of the worst teams in the league.
His response, "I can't explain it, just watch them. You'll understand."
He was right. After about two weeks of checking in on them via the League Pass, I was hooked.
They played hard and they played as a team, it was impossible not to like them.
Last season, the Thunder won just 23 games, but weren't nearly as bad as their record. They were young, inexperienced, and just couldn't figure out how to win games.
Well, two things are different this season. First of all, they aren't inexperienced anymore. They started a rookie at point guard (Russell Westbrook), and two second-year players (Kevin Durant and Jeff Green). All three were immensely talented, but all three went through growing pains at the same time.
There's still going to be some bumps in the road with those guys, but they are going to be much, much more consistent this season. That alone should lead to a handful more victories.
But the real reason I think this is a .500 team: Kevin Durant.
In part two of the preview, I predicted Kevin Durant to lead the league in scoring. He's absolutely the real deal. You could see it in college that this kid was going to be a superstar.
You could see it when he won Rookie of the Year.
You could see it in the Rookie Game last season.
You could see it all throughout the second half of the season last year.
Now be prepared to see it every night. Durant is the kind of player that only comes around once or twice every 10 years. He can score, rebound, pass, and even play a little defense. This will be the season that he finally puts it all together night in and night out.
Maybe 41 wins is over-estimating it a little bit, but trust me, this is an up-and-coming team.
Just watch them, you'll understand.
7. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected Record: 46-36
For three straight seasons now, the Blazers have been the one team that we've expected to make "the leap" into elite status. And every year, they peak at being a middle of the pack team at best.
This season, I'm done giving this team the benefit of the doubt.
After losing to the Rockets in the playoffs last season, it was clear that they needed to address some issues. Instead, they went out and got Andre Miller. And I actually really like Andre Miller.
Unfortunately for Portland, he is the ultimate "good player, bad fit" free agent signing.
Miller is one of the last "true" point guards in the league. He is unselfish, runs the offense well, and looks to get all his teammates involved.
The problem is, that isn't at all what the Blazers need.
They already have Brandon Roy, one of the best young guards in the league. For Roy to be effective, he needs to have the ball in his hands all the time. He's a scorer, but not a Rip Hamilton work-without-the-ball scorer. He's better suited to play one-on-one and beat his man to the basket.
He is the exact opposite of the type of player that Andre Miller needs surrounding him.
Miller needs to dominate the ball for most of the possession to fully maximize his passing ability. Roy needs to dominate the ball to maximize his scoring. Something's got to give.
There are a lot of teams that would have benefitted from getting Andre Miller this offseason. Portland wasn't one of them.
I predict another disappointing end to the season for Portland, and it might be time to go in a new direction.
"Good" isn't good enough in the NBA.
6. Utah Jazz
Projected Record: 47-35
Much like the Blazers, Utah has been on the cusp of being great for a few years now too, but always seem to fall short.
It's tough to predict where the Jazz as constructed right now will end up, because it seems likely that Carlos Boozer could be traded at some point during the season. Depending on how the team responds after the trade, they could finish anywhere between fifth and ninth in the West.
But if they keep Boozer, we know what the Jazz are. They are a great team at home, a decent team on the road, a team that you don't want to play in the playoffs, but also a team that isn't good enough to win a title.
There are plenty of teams in worse shape than Utah heading into the season, but I doubt that Jazz fans will take any comfort in that as they watch their team struggle to get past the second round of the playoffs again.
5. Dallas Mavericks
Projected Record: 48-34
I've already touched on Dallas' offseason moves once in the preview, so there's no point in breaking down the Shawn Marion deal again.
The Mavs tried to fill their Texas-sized void in the middle by signing Marcin Gortat to an offer sheet, but the Magic matched it. When that didn't work, they made a few lateral moves.
They won 50 games last season, and they'll be right around that number again this year. If a big name player becomes available via trade during the season (and trust me, one will), expect Mark Cuban to involved in the conversation.
But unless they do make a move, it'll be business as usual in Dallas, and it'll be one-and-done in the playoffs again.
4. New Orleans Hornets
Projected Record: 50-32
I'm begrudgingly picking the Hornets to finish fourth in the West and have home court advantage in the playoffs, but I'm really sensing a theme here: the West isn't nearly as stacked as it used to be.
Just a few years back the West was wide open, with five or six teams that had a legit chance to get to the Finals.
Now, I'm picking the Hornets to finish fourth, and I don't think they are a threat whatsoever.
I love Chris Paul, and he alone is what separates the Hornets from the rest of the middle of the pack teams (Portland, Utah, and Dallas), but that's really all this team has going for them.
In reality, I could have drawn the seventh through fourth spots out of a hat and been satisfied with the results. All of these teams look the same to me: good but not great.
If any of these four teams have a chance to prove me wrong and do some damage in the playoffs, it's New Orleans because, unless they play the Lakers, they'll have the best player on the floor, and that's always a nice luxury to have in the playoffs.
Chris Paul could actually still be getting better, and he might just be good enough to carry this team to a deep playoff run.
That might be the only way we see anything other than a Spurs/Lakers Western Conference Finals.
3. Denver Nuggets
Projected Record: 55-27
The Nuggets are the real wild card in the West. On the one hand, everything went well for them last season. Their trip to the Western Conference Finals was an absolute best-case-scenario for them considering the fact that they gave themselves a complete makeover three games into the season when the traded Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups. A little bad luck and they could fall right back down into the middle of the pack with the previous four teams.
On the other hand, they have Chauncey Billups for an entire offseason and training camp. I don't know how many different ways to say it: the man is a winner. There is really no other word that describes him.
His presence this offseason and training camp has the potential to make this team even better than they already are. We saw how good the team became once they added him to the mix, now let's see what happens when they have an entire offseason to build a scheme around him.
Chris Paul was good enough for me to put the Hornets ahead of three other teams in a virtual tiebreak situation. Chauncey Billups is good enough for me to put the Nuggets in a class above those four teams. He means that much to this team.
We'll find out soon enough if last season was a fluke in Denver, but the smart money says that as long as Chauncey is healthy, this team will be a threat once again.
2. San Antonio Spurs
Projected Record 63-19
The Spurs have one last title push left in them with Tim Duncan and they know it, so they went all-in to try to get it.
And of course, when you have R.C. Buford and Greg Popovich pulling the trigger on the moves, you can bet that things are probably going to work out well.
If you've read any of the other three parts of this preview, then you know that I am extremely high on the Spurs this season. I've praised their management, their coaching, their starters, their reserves, their draft — pretty much everything that they've done since the end of last season.
There's nothing left for me to say about this team. It's time for them to either make me look really smart or really dumb.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
Projected Record: 67-15
I've touched on the Artest/Ariza swap from the Houston standpoint already, now it's time to look at it from the Lakers' point of view.
I don't love the move, I don't hate it. I said before that Ariza always has been and always will be a role player. When you're as good as the Lakers are, role players are pretty easy to find, so I'm not all that disappointed to see Ariza go. Aging vets who can still play are always willing to come in and play a role on a good team for a chance to win a ring.
However, Artest is not just an aging vet who can still play, he's also certifiably insane.
If you look at every championship team, they usually have two very noticeable qualities: they have very defined roles for each of their players, and they have great chemistry.
With a few very minor exceptions, those two traits apply to every championship team for the past 20 years.
The problem with the Artest deal is that he's such a head-case you don't know if he's going to understand/buy into his role, or if his teammates are going to want to play with such a loose cannon.
In a perfect world, Artest would come in and guard the best player on the opposing team every night which would free up Kobe to be Kobe on offense and take 7-10 shots per game, all within the flow of the offense.
But "Ron Artest" and "a perfect world" have never appeared in the same sentence before, and it's not going to start now.
The Lakers are just so damned talented that it won't matter in the regular season.
I like them to finish the regular season with the best record in the conference, but if the chemistry isn't there come playoff time, the Spurs or whoever wins the East could be ready to give the Lakers a rude awakening.
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