Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Clay Court Season is Here!
Every year, we see it happen, and it will probably happen again. The European clay court circuit is kicking off and based on past years' patterns, a good advice would be to expect different names, and some new ones, to emerge in the earlier rounds on both the WTA and ATP tournaments, followed by the domination of the European ladies in the later rounds on the WTA side, by Rafael Nadal cleaning up one tournament after another on the men's side, and Roger Federer picking up the pieces where Nadal has neglected to clean up.
I know there will be plenty of so-called experts or prognosticators claiming this or that player to break the pattern, and never mentioning two months later that they were dead wrong, of course. I would have made one myself on the ATP side had Juan Martin Del Potro had a healthy 2010 campaign. However, considering his nagging wrist injury and the little activity that he has had this season, I find it unlikely that the big-hitting Argentine can take on Nadal or Federer anytime soon.
So who is really left to challenge them? Nobody, really. And please don't say Andy Murray, Nikolay Davydenko, or Andy Roddick. I admire the latter's late form, but let's face it, on European clay, it would be a miracle. Don't keep your hopes up, either, on another Robin Soderling miracle similar to last year's Roland Garros. Novak Djokovic is perhaps your best bet.
Many will speak of Federer's and Nadal's slumps of late. I say even with their slumps, I will take those two over the rest of the field during the clay court season, and Nadal over Federer between the two. Since 2004 in Roland Garros, except last year's big upset by Soderling, Nadal has not lost to anyone, and Federer has not lost to anyone but Nadal. Let me sum it up: my main hope for some "new" excitement on the ATP season rests on the gap between Nadal and Federer on clay courts to decrease and see some more epic matches in this great rivalry.
We are slowly but surely moving away from the era that lasted a few years, during which these two players were automatically being written in for the finals of most major tournaments. The last time that they met in the finals of a tournament was almost a year ago in Madrid. Yes, Federer won that one, but how many would be willing to bet on Federer over Nadal the next time they meet on clay courts? Still, I want to see a few more episodes of this terrific rivalry.
Nadal will have plenty of time to win a tournament or two, find his form, and be the favorite once again to win Roland Garros. Federer may shine in one of the Masters Series tournaments and probably show up in the semis of Roland Garros for a record 24th time in a row in the semis of a Slam tournament. So there are your main entertainment ideas: can anyone stop Federer from reaching that new record? Can Federer beat Nadal on clay? Can anyone beat Nadal on clay?
But here is a more interesting idea: what if Nadal falls on the same side of the draw as Federer in Roland Garros? Furthermore, if by some miracle he has a bad clay court season, and he loses the ranking points from last season, and he gets seeded even lower than number four in Paris, and to muddy the waters further, he gets placed in the draw at a spot where he and Federer would have to face each other before the semis? Wow! I realize that I am reaching here. But, would that not be an odd thing to happen? Yes, some strange things must indeed take place for anything to break the pattern of past seasons on clay courts.
One would be more optimistic to see new patterns on the women's side. The mere presence of Justine Henin and Kim Clijsters should add excitement, and I have a feeling that Serena and Venus Williams will challenge for the title this year. It's about time; Venus has reached the quarterfinals only once since 2002, and the last time that Serena has gone past the quarterfinals was in 2003. That just does not sit well with these two champions. They are due for a good show in Roland Garros.
Experts will once again say how Americans simply fail on red clay; they will show you the example of Pete Sampras, etc. I reject those arguments. Venus and Serena have shown in the past they can be the best on any surface. Sampras' clay court misery during his otherwise fantastic career (only one European clay court title, total of three) is simply a bad comparison, and the last time I checked, Venus and Serena were Americans when they met in the finals of Roland Garros in 2002. In fact, if it was not for the return of Clijsters and Henin, to predict another final between the Williams sisters would not have been considered a surprise pick.
In any case, I am glad the clay court season is here. Bring on the tournaments in the wonderful cities of Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid, etc. followed by Roland Garros. Let's enjoy some terrific rallies and a variety of skills.