Six Quick Hits
* I know I'm not the only one who cringed at NFL Network's Thursday night booth of Bob Papa, Matt Millen, and Joe Theismann, but they actually did a nice job. Less nice: cameras repeatedly missing the beginnings of plays.
* That said ... Theismann on Deion Sanders: "I think one of the top five greatest players ever to play the game." Cuckoo. He might be one of the top five greatest cornerbacks ever to play the game. Greatest players? Absurd.
* Nice final drive in that game by Matty Ice. The nickname may be derived from a crappy beer, but the "Ice" moniker is an apt description for the Falcons' cool-headed QB. Also, beautiful fingertip catch by Michael Jenkins. Atlanta doesn't win without that.
* In the NFL, going out of bounds doesn't stop the clock until the last two minutes of the first half or the last five minutes of the second. Someone has got to teach Troy Aikman this rule. On Sunday, he criticized Ahmad Bradshaw for staying in bounds with about 5:30 remaining. This isn't the first time Aikman has made this mistake while announcing a Giants game.
* I mostly rag on announcers, but how impressive was it that Ron Jaworski called a double-reverse right before it happened? Technically, it was a reverse off an end-around, but basically the same thing. Props, Jaws.
* One extra this week so I can complain that FOX parlayed the Meadowlands power outage into three plays of the Rams/Niners game and three commercial breaks. Later, we got the Cowboys running out the clock on a two-touchdown win instead of the finish of a contest that went into overtime. This is football, not a soap opera. Show a damn game.
***
I'm a stats guy. If you've ever read my column, I don't need to tell you that, but even if this is your first time here, it'll become obvious pretty quickly: there are numbers, ranks, averages all over this baby. But often, people don't seem to think beyond the statistics, and it leads them to untenable conclusions.
This weekend, Greg Gumbel told viewers that the Colts' Jacob Tamme has been "the best tight end in football the last couple weeks." Now, certainly Tamme has played well, but I just don't see how you can say that. For all the things he's done well, he's also missed a lot of catchable passes, and he doesn't really block at all. If you're looking at a stats sheet to tell you who the best TE was in Weeks 8 and 9, I suppose you would say Tamme. But if you were watching him play, you'd probably go with someone else.
Furthermore, I heard someone — probably Gumbel, I guess — mention something to the effect that Reggie Wayne was having the best season of his career. That's crazy. I think Wayne is having his worst season since at least 2005, probably since '03, before he even really became a star. Wayne's stats coming into this weekend were very good, maybe even the best of his career. But he's not getting open the way he did last year, he's dropping passes in a way that he never has, and he's not making the jaw-dropping catches that really became his trademark the last few seasons.
Last example, though there are tons more if you go beyond this one weekend and just the broadcasts I watched: Bill Cowher, with the oft-repeated lunacy that Brett Favre is "coming off his best year." Cowher was coaching in the mid-90s, when Favre won three straight MVP Awards, so this is just inexcusable. I'm such a stats guy that I'm going to use stats to show that Cowher was looking at the wrong stats; if that's the sort of thing that makes your eyes glaze over, I swear there are power rankings in here somewhere. Scroll down a little and you'll come to them.
Okay, let's take 1995, Favre's first MVP season, and 2009, and look at some basic numbers:
1995: 359-570, 4,413 yards, 38 TD, 13 INT, 99.5 rating
2009: 363-531, 4,202 yards, 33 TD, 7 INT, 107.2 rating
Statistically, I think those are about even. He passed more efficiently last year, but in '95, had more yards and more TDs, plus he was ahead in all the stats you don't see here, things like sacks and rushing. So the numbers are close. But in context, it's not close.
Those '95 stats were compiled against a much harder schedule (.492) than the '09 numbers (.441) — basically, add a win to every opponent the Vikings played last year, and see if the numbers come out the same, or turn both those games against the Lions into games against the Dolphins or somebody. But also, consider that in 1995, Green Bay's leading rusher was Edgar Bennett (1,067 yds, 3.4 avg, 3 TDs), so defenses played to stop the pass. In 2009, Favre was handing off to Adrian Peterson (1,383 yds, 4.4 avg, 18 TDs), so most defenses played to stop the run. That opened up a lot of things for Favre downfield, and it created play-action opportunities that weren't there in '95.
Of course, Favre also got to pass to Peterson. In 2009, he played with an all-pro RB, plus Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, and Visanthe Shiancoe. That's an all-pro RB, Pro Bowl WR, Offensive Rookie of the Year, and a tight end who caught 56 passes for 11 touchdowns. He also had two offensive linemen in the Pro Bowl. Altogether, 10 Vikings made the Pro Bowl last season.
In '95, Favre was passing to Robert Brooks, Mark Chmura, and Bennett. His No. 2 wideout was Mark Ingram (39 rec, 469 yds, 3 TDs). Apart from Favre, the only Packers to make the Pro Bowl were defensive end Reggie White and Chmura, who got in because, well, someone had to. There were no great TEs in the NFC that year, but Chmura had decent numbers, so he got the nod. In this golden age of tight ends, Shiancoe didn't, but I don't see a whole lot of room between them.
One offensive teammate in the Pro Bowl (barely) in '95, versus five offensive teammates in '09, against a harder schedule, with defense geared to stopping the pass instead of the run? I don't think it's even close any more. But we still haven't adjusted these stats for 15 years of context. In 1995, the average passer rating was 77.5; last season, it was 81.2. Favre's rating in 2009 was higher, but that's partially because offensive play-calling has changed. He now throws shorter, high-percentage passes that result in more completions and fewer interceptions. In '95, Favre averaged 12.3 yards per completion, compared to 11.6 last year. In '95, 6.7% of his passes went for TDs, compared to 6.2% last year. That's the difference between playing quarterback in the mid-90s and late-00s.
Beyond all the numbers, though, consider this: you have a player who, in his perfect athletic prime, ages 26-28, won three MVP awards and a Super Bowl championship with a bunch of mostly anonymous teammates. Do you really want to suggest that this guy was better at age 40, putting up similar numbers with better teammates, a weaker schedule, and a more favorable environment for passing and play-calling? With apologies to Cowher — and he's certainly not the only one who's suggested this — it's ridiculous. Favre was mediocre in '08 and he's been terrible in 2010. To suggest that a guy whose prime was more than a decade ago suddenly had his best season at age 40, sandwiched between two pretty bad seasons, simply doesn't make sense.
But if you look at statistics like completion percentage or passer rating, and ignore all the others, you can reach conclusions like that — conclusions that don't make sense. I'm a stats guy. I love that we have numbers to help us quantify the obvious, identify the less obvious, and put accomplishments into context. But statistics are the beginning of this conversation, not the end of it. If all you're looking at is the numbers, you're missing a lot of what's important.
Now, on to the power rankings. Brackets indicate previous rank.
1. Philadelphia Eagles [4] — I moved them into this position on a provisional basis Sunday night, even before their Monday night demolition job. The Eagles had a 280-yard, 28-point first quarter. The Colts had a 256-yard, 23-point game this weekend. Mike Tirico: "Philadelphia has 5 touchdowns. The Redskins have run 12 plays." Michael Vick is playing by far the best football of his career. Can you imagine if this guy'd had a coach while he was in Atlanta?
2. Green Bay Packers [8] — I wrote last week that I believe they have a top-five quarterback and the best defense in the NFL. They've won three straight, tied with Atlanta and Oakland for the best current streak in the league. But the Raiders didn't play anyone good, and the Falcons, who have struggled on the road, won all three at home. Green Bay erased its demons against Minnesota, shut out the Jets, and got Wade Phillips fired. This team had a lot of injuries, and is presumably healthier coming out of the bye. I'm sure they'll lose their next two now that I've ranked them here, but the Packers are as hot as anyone right now.
3. Indianapolis Colts [5] — How does a great team finish +5 in turnovers and only win 23-17? Answer: it doesn't. The Colts aren't a great team. They might be if everyone was healthy, but a lot of important players are not, and right now the Colts are just a good team. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis need to recapture their high level of play from earlier this year, and Pierre Garçon needs to play more like the hungry rookie from a D-III college and less like a guy who can afford to drop passes and keep his job. And a lot of people need to get healthy.
4. New England Patriots [10] — Opened up a 23-3 lead at Pittsburgh before a few late scores made it respectable. The Pats have won six of their last seven, and they should be favored at home against the Colts in Week 11. Indianapolis has taken four of the last five from New England, but the Colts are missing so many people right now, and the game is in Foxborough. New England's defense has poor stats, but good players. Defensive lineman Mike Wright is quietly playing very well.
5. New York Giants [1] — Eli Manning threw his 100th interception on Sunday. Since Eli made his first start on November 21, 2004, his brother Peyton has tossed 69 interceptions. Eli has thrown more INTs this year (13) than anyone but Brett Favre, and the Giants rank 30th in turnovers, better only than the Cardinals and Panthers. Ahmad Bradshaw is having a fine season (838 yds, 4.8 avg, 5 TDs, plus receiving), but he's fumbled five times and lost four of them.
When Joe Buck was discussing the unlikelihood of a 20-point New York comeback, noting that the team hadn't come back from that kind of deficit since 1950, Troy Aikman countered, "It's been a long time since the New York Giants have had the type of offensive play-makers they have now." I suspect Troy either has a different definition of "a long time" than I do, or suffered multiple concussions that affect his memory.* Didn't the Giants recently have Tiki Barber, Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, and Jeremy Shockey? And you'd rather have Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and Kevin Boss? Look, Bradshaw and Nicks are having great seasons, and Manningham made some nice catches this weekend, but it's not close. The Giants had better offensive play-makers just a few years ago.
* Sorry for the concussion joke. Wait 'til you get to the Steelers section.
6. Atlanta Falcons [9] — Won three straight, all at home. Four of the next five are on the road, and that's when we'll find out whether this team is legitimately great or just pretty good. If it seemed like Millen couldn't shut up about Atlanta's offensive line play on Thursday night, there was good reason — that's where the game was won and lost. The Falcons' interior line — Justin Blalock, Todd McClure, and Harvey Dahl — is exceptional, and the defensive line just dictated to Baltimore's offense throughout. I was watching MLB Curtis Lofton, who is among the league leaders in tackles, as a potential Pro Bowler. Lofton was okay, but what I saw was guys like Jonathan Babineaux making plays to get Lofton free.
7. Baltimore Ravens [3] — In the last five games, the defense has limited Tom Brady and positively shredded Chad Henne, but gotten burned by Kyle Orton (314 yds, 104.5 rating), Ryan Fitzpatrick (382 yds, 106.9 rating), and Matt Ryan (316 yds, 101.8 rating). Baltimore still has a good defense, but tied for 23rd in both sacks and turnovers, it's not a great defense. Pass rush and cornerback play are the biggest problems. Jarret Johnson was terrific in '09, but he's been a non-factor this season.
8. Tennessee Titans [2] — Miserable passing performance in their first game with Randy Moss. Kerry Collins went 9/20 for 51 yards (50.2 passer rating) and left the game with a calf injury. Vince Young went 9/18 for 92 yards, with a TD and a pick (60.4 rating). Young also rushed for 15 yards, took two sacks, and lost a fumble. Collins' calf strain will keep him out for at least the immediate future, so the offense goes back to Young. Now is the time to stock your fantasy team with Titans. Next three weeks: Washington, Houston, Jacksonville. Those teams are all in the bottom five in total defense.
9. New Orleans Saints [11] — I love Drew Brees, but this is crazy. Brees leads the NFL in pass completions (261), but he's fourth in yards (2,587). Philip Rivers has 215 completions, 2,944 yards. It's not a mainstream stat, but I actually really like yards per completion as a sort of "degree of difficulty" gauge. Anyone can complete a five-yard swing pass, but those bombs downfield are high-risk plays. Brees' yds/comp is 9.9, which is incredibly low. Rivers is at 13.7, which leads the NFL. This is not an indictment of Brees so much as a reflection of the Saints' offense.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers [6] — Points allowed during Ben Roethlisberger's suspension: 9, 11, 13, 17. Points allowed since Big Ben returned to the lineup: 10, 22, 20, 21, 39. That's 12.5 without and 22.4 with, a huge, significant difference. Hines Ward missed most of Sunday's game with a "neck injury" that looked an awful lot like a concussion. But why shouldn't we trust someone who has admitted he lies to doctors about concussions? All I can say is, I can see some players or some teammates kind of questioning like, Well, it's just a concussion/neck injury. I've played with concussions/neck injuries before. I would go out there and play. This game is almost like a playoff game. It's almost a must-win. I guess Ward isn't really dedicated to the team, and cares more about Alzheimer's/dementia/depression/neck injuries than the team. Man, talk about soft.
11. New York Jets [7] — Second consecutive overtime win against a sub-.500 opponent. The Jets keep winning, and that's something, but realistically, when's the last time they looked really good? Week 4, pounding Buffalo? LaDainian Tomlinson is still playing well, but he's slowed down. Hopefully that's a coincidence rather than an indication that he can't keep up a high level of play for 16 games any more.
12. Oakland Raiders [12] — Teams that have won four of their last five games: Colts, Falcons, Giants, Jets, Patriots, Raiders. Oakland hasn't played anyone better than 5-4 this season. Next week: at 6-3 Pittsburgh. If the Raiders win, they make the top 10. Maybe the top 5.
13. San Diego Chargers [13] — Lots of good teams had byes in Week 10: Packers, Saints, Raiders, Chargers. That matters. Look how hard the players' union is fighting for two byes if the league moves to an 18-game schedule. Having a late bye can really help a team make a late-season playoff push, and all four of those teams are trying to do just that.
14. Cleveland Browns [14] — Holy crap, look at their schedule over the last five weeks: Falcons, Steelers, Saints, Patriots, Jets. I think 2-3 with an overtime loss is pretty heroic in context. Josh Cribbs dislocated four toes on his right foot but is expected to play in Week 11. Peyton Hillis is in the middle of an awesome season, but he has got to stop fumbling. So does Chansi Stuckey.
15. Miami Dolphins [15] — Down to their third-string quarterback. Chad Pennington is lost for the season, suffering his 3,017th shoulder injury Sunday and probably ending his career. Chad Henne is also out, with a knee injury, and Tyler Thigpen is expected to start in Week 11. Left tackle Jake Long was also hurt against Tennessee, and is likely to miss the next game. Bad timing for key injuries: this week's game, against Chicago, is on Thursday night.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [21] — They're 6-3, with wins over — get ready — Cleveland, Carolina, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Arizona, and Carolina again. Those teams are a combined 14-40 (.259). If the Bucs make the playoffs, I am going to throw a damn hissyfit.
17. Chicago Bears [25] — You can't beat the master. Sure, Jay Cutler threw two interceptions this weekend, including one in the end zone, but Brett Favre topped that with three picks and a lost fumble in Chicago's 27-13 win. I hate to be one of those guys getting on Julius Peppers' jock, but what a difference he's made for this defense. Peppers commands double-teams and holds, so he hasn't put up big numbers, but he's created opportunities for guys like Israel Idonije (5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles) and helped the Bears improve from 21st in points allowed to second, an improvement of better than a touchdown per game (23.4 to 16.2). Brian Urlacher is obviously part of this, too, but Peppers has made the bigger difference.
18. San Francisco 49ers [24] — Started 0-5, won three of the last four. Troy Smith reportedly has captured the starting QB job from Alex Smith, and it's hard to think that's not the right move. Troy Smith did take an alarming number of sacks (5) in the overtime win against St. Louis, going 0/11 on third down, but for the season, he has a passer rating of 116.6, compared to 75.0 for Alex Smith. Neither of the 49ers' top two receivers are wideouts; the team is led by RB Frank Gore (41 rec) and TE Vernon Davis (37). Hopefully the new QB can coax some production out of his WRs. Checkdowns can get you out of trouble, but they don't win games.
19. Houston Texans [19] — Allowed 30 points for the fourth time this season, and haven't held anyone under 20. Who has the worst defense in the league? Houston ranks 31st in yardage, points, and first downs allowed, tied for last in turnovers. Several other teams have compelling cases, but that's my vote. My friend GG, whose fantasy team has basically been Philip Rivers and a prayer, won huge this week while Rivers was on a bye. Homegirl picked up David Garrard and Josh Scobee and rode a trio of Jaguars (MJD) to a big win. Facing Houston's defense = fantasy gold.
20. Kansas City Chiefs [16] — Dwayne Bowe, now tied for the league lead in receiving TDs (9), became the first Chief since Otis Taylor to reach the end zone five games in a row. Bowe showed promise his first two seasons, but this is his most explosive campaign, with career highs in yards per reception, yards per game, and touchdowns.
21. Washington Redskins [17] — Washington hasn't been done like that since the War of 1812. This team has allowed 96 points the last two weeks. Here's the short version of what's wrong. The offensive line is terrible, especially the right side. Stephon Heyer is a disaster. There's no pass rush. Fine, they've picked up a few sacks and Brian Orakpo draws a holding call once in a while. There's no consistent pressure. The safeties are awful in pass coverage. LaRon Landry, as many good plays as he's had this season, is an 88-yard touchdown pass waiting to happen. Kareem Moore is basically the same, except without the "good plays" part. The receiving game is Santana Moss and Chris Cooley and screens to RBs no one has heard of. They need another reliable wide receiver. Also, despite a bye, the coaching staff seemed totally unaware that they would be facing Vick on Monday night. I can't recall a worse defensive gameplan.
22. St. Louis Rams [22] — Tied for the NFL lead in sacks (28), tops in sack yardage (198). James Hall has 7.5, Chris Long 5.5. They played well enough to win in San Francisco, and almost did. Four of the Rams' five losses this season have been by 4 points or less: 4, 2, 1, 3.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars [23] — Michael Vick leads the NFL in passer rating. David Garrard is second (104.9). It helps that defenses concentrate on shutting down the ground game, but Garrard plays with an undistinguished receiving corps, and he's putting up big numbers. Garrard obviously is not in the same discussion as people like Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers, but he's a good player who seldom gets the credit he deserves.
24. Detroit Lions [20] — They've played a tough schedule (.531) and outscored their opponents (+13). I want to rank them highly, but they just seem pathologically unable to hold leads or win close games. That's not a good team. Jahvid Best got off to a nice start, but he's averaging 3.1 yards per carry. Kevin Smith (3.9) might be a better option.
25. Minnesota Vikings [18] — Favre, who leads the NFL with 16 interceptions, threw the 30th regular-season pick-6 of his career this weekend. Adrian Peterson is second in the NFL in rushing, and the Vikings rank 27th in points per game. Here's a really weird stat: the Vikings are actually 0-3 when Peterson carries at least 25 times. Husain Abdullah intercepted 2 passes on Sunday.
26. Seattle Seahawks [26] — Since the bye, the Seahawks are 3-2 ... and have been outscored by 31 points. Last year, the 'Hawks snagged Aaron Curry with the fourth pick in the draft, and while it might not be fair to label Curry a disappointment, he hasn't yet capitalized on his potential. Curry had perhaps the best game of his pro career in Week 10, leading Seattle in tackles, with two sacks and a forced fumble. Lions castoff Mike Williams also had a big game, 11 receptions for 145 yards.
27. Denver Broncos [28] — Twenty-point win coming off the bye. What more is there to say about Kyle Orton and Brandon Lloyd? This week, a little praise for linebacker Mario Haggan, who had three sacks and forced a fumble against Kansas City.
28. Cincinnati Bengals [27] — Longest losing streak in the league, six straight. I don't know if I've ever seen a team more consistently raise its play in garbage time, when the outcome of the game is already decided. Carson Palmer has a 65.5 passer rating when leading or tied, 92.5 when trailing.
29. Dallas Cowboys [30] — It took me a long time to drop them this low, and it will take more than a week for them to work their way back up. I've been known to suggest pretty wild conspiracy theories from time to time, so I might as well let fly with another. What are the chances that Jason Garrett, as offensive coordinator, deliberately sabotaged the offense to get Wade Phillips fired so he could become head coach?
30. Buffalo Bills [31] — C.J. Spiller got hurt, so Fred Jackson rushed for 133 yards and a TD, with 6 catches for 37 yards and another TD. I still don't understand why a team that had Marshawn Lynch and Jackson used its first draft pick on a running back. This team has a lot of holes.
31. Arizona Cardinals [29] — There are good players on this defense: Calais Campbell, Darnell Dockett, Joey Porter, Kerry Rhodes, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Adrian Wilson ... and yet, the Cardinals allow over 400 yards a game and have given up 261 points, worst in the NFL. They miss Karlos Dansby, and they miss an offense that could keep them off the field.
32. Carolina Panthers [32] — Reserve RB Mike Goodson played well in relief of ... well, a lot of people, and Jimmy Clausen finished without any turnovers. But the defense stepped up to extend their losing streak, getting owned both in the air and on the ground. The Panthers have been outscored by over 100 points this season. Here's something weird: the only opponent not to score at least 20 points against Carolina this year was the New Orleans Saints, who won 16-14.
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