We're getting closer to March Madness, and the mid-major bubble picture is as murky as ever. While many conference tournaments will decide who's dancing next month and who stays home, the question still lingers for some teams who have performed well this season, yet would be firmly on the bubble if they didn't win their conference's automatic bid.
So, with that in mind, let's take a look at some mid-major programs that are sitting at or near the top of their conferences. They all have RPIs squarely in the bubble range. Do they need to win their conference tournament to get in the Big Dance, or should they be in regardless?
Wichita State
RPI (from CollegeRPI.com): 52
Record: 22-5, (13-3 Missouri Valley)
Last 10 Games: 8-2
MUST WIN OR GET IN?
I love Missouri Valley teams, and barring complete collapse, the selection committee should let them in whether they win the conference tournament or not. Wichita State is one of those teams that will frustrate opposing coaches. They play stifling defense, crash the boards well, and have a deep bench. Furthermore, as of tonight, they are 8-0 on the road in conference play, which demands some attention. Gregg Marshall is the real deal as coach; Winthrop had never been to the Big Dance until he took the Eagles there seven of his nine years as coach. He came to Wichita in a rebuilding phase and has built another winner. It wouldn't be a surprise at all if the Shockers won their first round game.
On a side note, the same goes for Missouri State (21-6, 13-3, RPI 46), Cuonzo Martin's Bears deserve to play in the NCAA tournament if they don't win the Missouri Valley's automatic bid.
Coastal Carolina
RPI: 56
Record: 24-3 (15-1 Big South)
Last 10 Games: 9-1
MUST WIN OR GET IN?
Kudos to Cliff Ellis for what he's done at Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers are easily the class of the conference and already have a share of the Big South regular season title. The Chants are a small but scrappy team and I really like what Desmond Holloway brings to the table. However, the Big South is typically a one-bid conference, and the Chants did not help themselves in losing to Gardner-Webb this week. If Coastal was unable to win the Big South tournament, they'd be great NIT material, but wouldn't grab an at-large bid. They've got to win their conference tournament to get in.
Southern Miss
RPI: 48
Record: 18-6 (7-4 Conference USA)
Last 10 Games: 6-4
MUST WIN OR GET IN?
The Memphis game said it all; they have to win the conference tournament to get in. Had Larry Eustachy's crew pulled off the win, they'd be in a much stronger position to state a case for gaining an at-large bid regardless of what happens in the Conference USA tournament. However, Memphis, at 19-6 (7-3 Conference USA, RPI of 32) should have the upper hand for an at-large bid, along with Mike Davis' talented UAB squad (18-6, 8-3, 34). Give the Golden Eagles credit for what's been a solid year, but right now, I think they have to finish very strong to get on the dance floor.
Cleveland State
RPI: 37
Record: 22-5, (11-4 Horizon)
Last 10 Games: 7-3
MUST WIN OR GET IN?
A lot of people are predicting 10-11 Big East teams get in the tournament and in that case, Cleveland State would have to win the Horizon League tournament in an all-out battle with Butler and Valparaiso. Myself, I'd put the Vikings in regardless. First off, the Horizon League is no slouch. 2010 Butler aside, Cleveland State did cruise past the first round as a 13 seed in their last appearance. Secondly, I don't want to see any team who didn't finish in at least the top half of their conference in the Big Dance. I don't care that it's the Big East, which is no doubt the beast of all basketball conferences, if you finish 10th or 11th, you shouldn't be in. Put the Vikings in instead and let the nation take a look at Norris Cole, who might be the best player you've never heard of this season.
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