Tuesday, October 21, 2014
NFL Week 7 Power Rankings
Five Quick Hits: Media Edition
* Really nice feature by NBC with Peyton Manning discussing the previous record-holders for most passing touchdowns.
* Speaking of pre-game shows, CBS's has become unwatchable. The studio personnel don't have any chemistry — they don't seem to like each other. Bill Cowher is overbearing and humorless, and he's the dominant personality, so the show's tone is crabby and awkward. Bart Scott is annoying.
* I wrote last week about the best Dallas Cowboys player ever. This week, Troy Aikman weighed in, "That conversation's pretty short ... to me, there's only one name, and that's Roger Staubach." Interesting. I might have expected him to choose Emmitt Smith.
* Late in blowouts, the announcers often struggle for something interesting to say. Did you stick with the Sunday night broadcast long enough to hear Al Michaels discussing his own death, some time around the year 2030?
* The Thursday night attempt to interview Philip Rivers illustrated why studio shows should stay in the studio. Crowds in the stadium are loud and distracting. If what you're saying is worth hearing, you should broadcast from a controlled environment. You already have announcers and a sideline reporter. The only reason to send your studio crew to the game site is if you need a gimmick because the show can't stand on its own.
Touchdown-to-Interception Differential
This weekend, Peyton Manning broke the all-time record for touchdown passes. Maybe you heard about that. It's a big record, and it's one I suspect he'll hold for a while. More on that below. But even more impressive, I think, is a record Manning's already held for years: touchdown/interception differential. Without getting into complicated formulas, that's my favorite quick-and-dirty method of rating QBs. The advantage it has over a simple TD tally is that it recognizes efficiency as well as production, so it's not just a list of guys who threw a lot.
This favors recent players, because there are many fewer interceptions in today's game, but it ranks contemporaries better than TDs alone ... Joe Montana (273 TD, 139 INT) is ahead of Vinny Testaverde (275 TD, 267 INT), for instance. Sorted more or less by decade, here are the top three QBs of each generation, by TD/INT differential:
1950s: Johnny Unitas, +37; no one else over zero*
1960s: Fran Tarkenton, +76; Sonny Jurgensen, +66; Len Dawson, +56
1970s: Roger Staubach, +44; Ken Anderson, +37; Bert Jones, +23
1980s: Dan Marino, +168; Joe Montana, +134; Boomer Esiason, +63
1990s: Brett Favre, +172; Steve Young, +125; John Elway, +74
2000s: Peyton Manning, +288; Tom Brady, +236; Donovan McNabb, +117
2010s: Drew Brees, +190; Aaron Rodgers, +153; Philip Rivers, +131
The TD/INT differential shown is a career number, but in all cases, I listed a quarterback in the decade when he had his best TD/INT +/-. This yields some weird placements, like John Unitas in the '50s (+36) instead of the '60s (+17) and Drew Brees in the 2010s (+98). Obviously the list above does not show the three best QBs of each decade ... but if you were to suggest that Unitas, Tarkenton, Staubach, Marino, Favre, and Manning were the greatest QBs of their generations, many fans would agree with you. And if you take issue with any of the selections, it's probably because you want the number two guy, like Montana or Brady.
It's a simple calculation — too simple to draw major conclusions from — but it's a fast, easy way to narrow down the best quarterbacks in history. It's a more important number than just passing TDs, and in Manning's case, it's an even more impressive mark.
* Otto Graham (+39) and Charlie Conerly (+6) played most of their careers in the 1950s, and Graham would actually rate ahead of Unitas, except that their positives actually came in the late '40s, before the NFL's partial merger with the AAFC.
2014 Week Seven NFL Power Rankings
Brackets show previous rank.
1. Denver Broncos [1] — We take it for granted that Peyton Manning will throw 3 TDs in a game, and he still manages to wow us, getting them all before halftime. Since the neck surgery that seemed like it might end his career, Peyton has thrown 111 TD passes. That's more than Kyle Orton or Mark Sanchez in their whole careers, and it's more than Chad Pennington. By the end of the season, Manning should pass, among others, Marc Bulger (122) and Michael Vick (123) ... and Archie Manning (125). Peyton will throw more TD passes between ages 36-38, and after career-threatening surgery, than his father threw in 13 seasons.
2. Indianapolis Colts [9] — Even before Manning set the touchdown record on Sunday night, people began wondering whether anyone would ever break the new record. The rules favor passing more and more, and they protect quarterback safety more and more, so yes, I'm sure someone will break it eventually.
I don't know how much longer Peyton will play; it wouldn't surprise me if he threw for 600 touchdowns. But there are other active QBs who will get to 509, pass Favre on the all-time list. I bet Drew Brees will do it, and I suspect Andrew Luck will, as well. Last year, five QBs threw 30 touchdowns. As recently as 2006, no one but Manning threw 30 TDs, and in 2002, nobody threw 30. That will never happen again.
The game has changed, and the best players now throw 30 touchdowns as a matter of course. Over the last three seasons, five QBs (Brady, Brees, Manning, Rodgers, and Tony Romo) have averaged at least 30 TDs a season. Andrew Luck will pass Brett Favre on the all-time touchdown list.
3. Dallas Cowboys [7] — This week some media started to promote the idea that "Jason Garrett can't win! Before, they said he needed to run more. Now, they say he runs too much!" That's a dishonest presentation of the issues. Here's where the Cowboys ranked in rush attempts, beginning in 2007, Garrett's first year as offensive coordinator: 21, 25, 17, t-15, 24, 31, 31. The only year they're even average is 2010, when Garrett got Wade Phillips fired (169 rush attempts in 8 games, 31st) and then ran like crazy (259 attempts in 8 games, 3rd), turning a 1-7 start into a 5-3 finish. So yes, many analysts were frustrated to see the Cowboys rushing so seldom. But when we suggested that Dallas should run more often, we didn't mean, "Murder DeMarco Murray." You can run the ball without giving it to your primary back 85% of the time.
4. Green Bay Packers [8] — Twenty-fifth in yards per game, 4th in points per game. How does that work? It's not defensive touchdowns or special teams. The Packers lead the NFL in turnover differential, +10, and they're one of the least-penalized teams in the league (39 pen, 302 yds). They have scored 25 TDs, tied for most in the NFL, but they have only nine field goal attempts — Green Bay and Denver are the league's best red zone and goal-to-go teams. And they're getting off to big leads.
Playing from ahead confuses the issue. When your first three drives all produce touchdowns, and the opponent's first three drives all end three-and-out (as happened against Carolina on Sunday), you tend to run the ball, and your opponent tends to pass. Run plays produce less yardage, but they're more consistent, while passes lead to interceptions, sacks and lost fumbles, drive-ending incompletions. In 2011, the Packers went 15-1 despite allowing more yards than they gained. This team is built the same way.
5. Kansas City Chiefs [12] — Where was this Alex Smith from 2005-10?
Old Alex Smith: 51 TD, 53 INT, 72.1 passer rating, 5.2 net yards per attempt
New Alex Smith: 62 TD, 21 INT, 92.3 passer rating, 5.9 net yards per attempt
New Alex Smith is also an aggressive and productive runner, and he fumbles about half as often as Old Alex Smith.
6. Baltimore Ravens [10] — Lead the NFL in point differential, +89, and in scoring defense, 14.9 points per game. The scoring defense ranked 12th the last two seasons, and this year's success is partly due to a soft schedule, but the Ravens also held Indianapolis to a season-low 20 points. Familiar names like Elvis Dumervil and Haloti Ngata are playing well, and Daryl Smith is having another fine season. The improvement is probably most attributable to cornerback Jimmy Smith, having a career year, and rookie linebacker C.J. Mosley, who leads the team in tackles.
7. San Diego Chargers [2] — Last season, they ranked 29th in pass defense, the only real weakness on a team that reached the divisional round of the playoffs. In the offseason, they added Pro Bowl CB Brandon Flowers and first-round draft pick Jason Verrett, and now they rank 3rd. That could drop back to 29th this week. Verrett has a shoulder injury and Flowers got a concussion, and they're about to play the Broncos in Denver on a Thursday night.
8. Arizona Cardinals [4] — Lead the league in run defense. Through seven games, no opposing rusher has gained 65 yards against them (Rashad Jennings had 64 in Week 2). Their 3.15 yds/att allowed is also best in the NFL.
9. Philadelphia Eagles [11] — Everyone talks about Chip Kelly's offense. Let's use their bye week to explore the Frankenstein defense, stitched together from players other teams left for dead. Former Saint Malcolm Jenkins has three interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown. Former Texans DeMeco Ryans and Connor Barwin lead the team in tackles and sacks, respectively. Former Raven Cary Williams has the second-most tackles on the team, and former Ram Bradley Fletcher leads in passes defensed. There's some homegrown talent, like Trent Cole and Fletcher Cox, but the Eagles are succeeding (more or less; the defense is about average so far) with a roster built around players who were somewhere else in 2012.
10. San Francisco 49ers [5] — Injuries are a major problem, obviously, but they have a bye next week, and some key players should return when they play in Week 9. Also, look at the schedule. They don't play another team that's over .500 until Week 16. The Niners are still a serious threat in the NFC.
11. New England Patriots [13] — Four plays before the end of the game, Geno Smith completed a pass to David Nelson, whom Logan Ryan pushed out of bounds with :23 left, stopping the clock. Except that Ryan pushed him backwards out of bounds, which is usually ruled as forward progress — so the clock keeps running. The Jets were out of timeouts, so they might have only had time for one more play. Furthermore, on replay, it looked like Nelson did not have full possession when he went out of bounds. That play should have been reviewed. It didn't end up affecting the outcome, but questionable judgment by the officials on that play could have cost New England the game.
12. Seattle Seahawks [3] — Rank 29th in passing offense (204 yds/gm) and just traded their most explosive receiver. Percy Harvin reportedly fought with teammates, pouted over his touches, and refused to play because he didn't like the team's plans for him. Refusing to play is over the line, and I can't blame the team for trading him, but Harvin was a dynamic weapon — one who created headaches for opposing defenses — and this offense is worse without him.
13. Detroit Lions [15] — First game all season without a missed field goal. Matt Prater made a 21-yarder, and they punted from Saints territory three times.
14. Miami Dolphins [19] — Going forward, if you could have your choice of Ryan Tannehill or Robert Griffin III, which would you choose? Tannehill completed his first 10 passes this week.
15. Cincinnati Bengals [6] — Began the game with eight consecutive three-and-outs. They're one of two teams — Seattle is the other — to fall apart after the Week 4 bye. The Bengals opened 3-0, and many analysts put Cincinnati atop their power rankings. Since then, the team is 0-2-1, outscored by 107-54. The Seahawks are almost as dramatic: since the bye, they beat Washington (but not in a rout), lost to Dallas (at home, where they're supposed to be invincible), and lost to St. Louis (who came in 1-4). That's a devastating bye. Isn't the week off supposed to help?
16. Buffalo Bills [14] — Kyle Orton has two last-second victories in three starts. Running backs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller both left the game with injuries. Spiller broke his collarbone and is out for the season, while Jackson is going to miss at least one game, probably more. Former Eagle Bryce Brown becomes the presumptive lead RB and an interesting add in fantasy leagues.
Leodis McKelvin was one of three players to intercept multiple passes in Week 7, the others being Cleveland's Tashaun Gipson and Atlanta's Robert Alford. Oddly, McKelvin's Bills were the only team to capitalize on the takeaways and win — and even that one was close. Gipson and McKelvin lead the league with 4 INTs apiece.
17. St. Louis Rams [25] — Stedman Bailey's tricky punt return TD is my favorite play of the year so far. I love to see bold play from underdogs. Take some chances, use a fake punt to run out the clock. The Seahawks out-gained St. Louis by 191 yards of offense, but gave it back with penalties (-69 yards), net punting (-54), and kickoff returns (-72).
18. Houston Texans [18] — Scored touchdowns on their first and last drives of the game, but none in between. Houston did not capitalize on opportunities this week. When a team is struggling the way Pittsburgh did for the first 20 minutes, you've got to stick the dagger in.
19. Cleveland Browns [16] — Ugly game featuring a combined five turnovers and 15 punts. Both Brian Hoyer (46.3) and Blake Bortles (40.3) finished the game with passer ratings under 50. The Jaguars rushed for 185 yards and scored a season-high 24 points. Cleveland ranks last in the NFL in run defense (155.5 yds/gm).
20. Chicago Bears [17] — They're 3-4. That's unacceptable.
21. New York Giants [20] — Announcer Thom Brennaman repeatedly referred to rookie Odell Beckham as "Beckham Jr." That's stupid, but it's also incorrect: it's Odell Jr. The dude's last name is just Beckham. This is how names like that work:
Beckham, Odell Jr.
Griffin, Robert III
22. Carolina Panthers [21] — In their last five games, opponents have scored 37, 38, 24, 37, 38 — 34.8 ppg. Last season, the Panther defense ranked 2nd in both yardage and scoring, behind the Seahawks but far ahead of anyone else. This year, they're 26th in yardage and 29th in scoring. Four of their top five defensive backs left in free agency, and defensive end Greg Hardy is suspended because of the Ray Rice video. The Panthers are actually in first place (3-3-1) in the dismal NFC South, but this is not nearly the same team that went 12-4 last year.
23. New Orleans Saints [23] — Undefeated at home and winless on the road. They've lost seven consecutive away games in the regular season, going back to last Thanksgiving. In the last 365 days, they have one road win (two counting playoffs). They're 7-0 at home over that time.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers [24] — With 3:15 left in the first half, they trailed 13-0. They went into halftime up 24-13. This was the worst game I've seen from David DeCastro. He was phenomenal in Weeks 2 and 3, but not on Monday night. He made some really nice plays as a run-blocker, but got beat a couple of times in pass protection and whiffed when they brought him around on pulls.
25. New York Jets [27] — Frustrating loss. The Jets had five 10-play drives and only two touchdowns. They outgained New England by 100 yards, had 12 more first downs, doubled the Patriots' time of possession ... and they lost. Percy Harvin is more of an open-field guy, but maybe he can help their red-zone offense. You don't win in this league by kicking field goals.
26. Washington [26] — It sounds like Colt McCoy will start at Dallas in Week 8, but they haven't ruled out Robert Griffin, returning from ankle injury. McCoy should start. In many NFL cities, the most popular player is the backup quarterback. That's especially true when he has a cool name like Colt. Every player is perfect until you see him fail, and Washington fans have to see McCoy make some bad plays (against Tennessee, he went 11-of-12 and led a comeback victory) or they won't fully support Griffin. This helps the franchise QB, and it gives him an extra week to heal.
27. Minnesota Vikings [28] — Their game featured a combined 11 sacks and 6 turnovers. Everson Griffen led the Vikings with 3 sacks and a forced fumble. It was Griffen's second multi-sack game of the season, and he is tied for second-most sacks in the NFL (7).
28. Atlanta Falcons [22] — Since their thrashing of the Buccaneers on September 18, the Falcons have scored progressively fewer points every week: 56, 28, 20, 13, 7. Over those last four games, they have allowed at least 27 points every week, an average of 32.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [29] — Only two teams had their byes in Week 7. It's the middle of the season! Why are there so few?
All byes should happen between Weeks 6-11: two weeks with four byes and four with six byes. I realize the schedule-makers have a tough job, synching the plans for 32 teams, but it's frankly ridiculous that we have byes as early as Week 4 — who needs a break after only three games? — and it could be a disadvantage for potential contenders that they don't get some rest a little closer to the postseason.
This year, there are six teams on bye in Weeks 4, 9, and 10, with only two byes in each week between. That's a poorly designed schedule.
30. Tennessee Titans [30] — It periodically becomes popular to suggest that anyone can succeed behind a great offensive line, that you build the team up front and the "skill" players aren't essential. This team offers strong proof to the contrary. The Titans have a very good offensive line, one of the 10 best lines in the NFL. They rank 28th in points per game and 27th in yardage.
I don't get the hate for Charlie Whitehurst. Other than alliteration, I don't see much ground for the derisive "Checkdown Charlie" nickname. Among 39 QBs with at least 50 pass attempts, Whitehurst ranks 7th in yards per attempt, 3rd in yards per completion, and 13th in TD%. Whitehurst doesn't have a lot of attempts per game, and his sack percentage is pretty horrid (8.4%, 35th), but that's not related to a conservative, checkdown tendency. The Titans' leading receivers, other than tight end Delanie Walker, are all WRs. Apart from a poor first down percentage (31.6%, 29th), there's just no evidence that Whitehurst throws more checkdowns than other QBs.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars [32] — Jimmy Johnson is the funniest guy on the FOX pregame set. When Curt Menefee asked his analysts, "Will the Jaguars or Raiders win a game this season?", Jimmy returned, "Do they play each other?"
32. Oakland Raiders [31] — If they don't beat the Browns in Week 8, they could stay winless for a long time ... the next three are at Seattle, vs Denver, and at San Diego. The Raiders won't go 0-16, but they won't be favored in any game this season.