Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Best NFL Defenses: 2004-15
Six years ago, I wrote a column ranking the greatest defenses in NFL history. In the wake of the Denver Broncos' dominant defensive performance in the 2015 season — and the postseason in particular — this seems like a good time to revisit the topic. I don't think a lot has changed in the all-time top 10, so instead we'll focus on the last 12 seasons: the Illegal Contact era. Defense is different now than it was in 1963, or 1985, or even 2000.
In the previous article, I used a formula to help me sort the contenders, and then applied my subjective opinion to refine the results. I don't think you can do an analysis like this without relying on stats, but I also don't think the stats tell us everything. The statistical formula I used is below. It's complicated, and you won't miss anything if you skip it. Lower scores are better.
points per game + (yards per game / 25) - turnovers per game + (yards per carry / 4) + (passer rating / 50) + rank in points per game + [ (ranks in yards per game, rush yards per game, pass yards per game, rushing average, passer rating, and turnovers) / 5] - (regular season winning percentage * 5)
As a point of reference, here's the system in action, scoring the best-rated team of the Modern Era, the 1969 Minnesota Vikings:
9.5 points per game + (194.3 yards per game / 25) - 3.0 turnovers per game + (3.2 yards per carry / 4) + (42.1 passer rating / 50) + 1st in points per game + [ (1st in yards per game, 2nd in rush yards per game, 1st in pass yards per game, 1st in rushing average, 1st in passer rating, and 2nd in turnovers) / 5] - (.857 regular season winning percentage * 5)
That is, 9.5 + 7.77 - 3.0 + 0.8 + .842 + 1 + [ (1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2) / 5] - 4.285, equaling 14.2. This formula is obviously imperfect. It underrates sacks, it doesn't credit defensive touchdowns, it doesn't account for penalties, it's not adjusted for strength of schedule, it doesn't include the postseason, it doesn't recognize the scheme or the players or the historical context. There are a dozen more little things wrong with it. But it's a good starting point.
These are the top 10 best defenses of the Illegal Contact Era, as I see them. Where I've gotten away from the formula, I'll make a note and try to explain why.
10. Seattle Seahawks, 2014
267.1 yards per game (1st in NFL), 15.9 points per game (1st in NFL)
Over the 12 seasons covered in this project, there have been seven teams to lead the NFL in both fewest yards allowed and fewest points allowed. Five of the seven are ranked higher than this, and one missed the top 10 entirely: the 2011 Pittsburgh Steelers, who finished dead last — 32 out of 32 — in takeaways, generating only 15 turnovers all season, less than one per game. You may also remember that as the team that lost to Tim Tebow's Broncos in the first round of the playoffs. Tebow passed for a career-high 316 yards, with a 122.3 passer rating and no sacks.
The Seahawks right now are a defensive dynasty. They were very good in 2012, excellent in 2013, and great in 2014 and 2015. They're very strong up front, with Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. Linebacker Bobby Wagner was first-team all-pro and K.J. Wright led the team in tackles. But the heart of Seattle's great defense is its secondary, the Legion of Boom. Richard Sherman is, along with Darrelle Revis, the finest cornerback of this generation. Free safety Earl Thomas is a three-time all-pro. Kam Chancellor is a ferocious hitter, the leader of the unit.
The 2015 Seahawks didn't make the top 10, but they led the NFL in points allowed and ranked 2nd in yards allowed. They led the league in rush defense (81.5 yds/gm) and allowed just 3.6 yards per carry, with the 2nd-ranked pass defense.
9. Chicago Bears, 2005
281.8 yards per game (2nd in NFL), 12.6 points per game (1st in NFL)
No team in the Illegal Contact Era has allowed under 200 points in a season, but the '05 Bears came close: 202. Brian Urlacher won Defensive Player of the Year, and Lance Briggs was first-team all-pro for the only time in his career, earning the most votes of any outside linebacker. Nathan Vasher, Tommie Harris, and Mike Brown were all named second-team all-pro. And then, well, this is interesting. The AP voters clearly recognized that Chicago was a great defensive team. But other than Urlacher and Briggs, they weren't sure who the good players were. Four Bear defenders received exactly one all-pro vote, and that doesn't include Vasher, who got 21 votes at cornerback and 1 at safety. The four were Alex Brown, Adewale Ogunleye, Ian Scott, and Charles Tillman.
This was Kyle Orton's rookie season. Orton eventually became a solid pro, but in '05, he was a disaster. I like Kyle Orton, but this season, he was probably the worst starting QB ever to lead a team to the playoffs. With Rex Grossman injured, Orton started 15 games. He passed for 1,869 yards and 9 TDs — in 15 games! — with 18 turnovers and a 59.7 passer rating. The Bears won the NFC North almost exclusively with their defense. Chicago made the Super Bowl the following year, but that was with Grossman and a rookie returner named Devin Hester. This season was the team's best defense since the '80s.
8. Baltimore Ravens, 2008
261.1 yards per game (2nd in NFL), 15.3 points per game (3rd in NFL)
This was the rookie season for head coach John Harbaugh and quarterback Joe Flacco. Harbaugh has proven one of the finest coaches of this era, and Flacco has done some good things. But — Ravens will be Ravens — this team made the playoffs with defense. They were particularly effective shutting down opposing passers. Baltimore ranked 2nd in pass defense (179.7 yds/gm) and allowed the lowest passer rating of any defense (60.6).
Ed Reed was a unanimous all-pro, 50 votes out of 50. He led the NFL in interceptions (9), with 264 return yards and 2 touchdowns (including a 107-yard TD), plus 16 more passes defensed. He forced a fumble, recovered two fumbles, and scored on a 22-yard fumble return as well. If you include 2 INTs and a TD return in the playoffs, Reed had 13 takeaways, for 367 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Baltimore's other standouts were defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and linebackers Ray Lewis, Bart Scott, and Terrell Suggs. The Ravens went 11-5 and reached the AFC Championship Game, with an offense whose only Pro Bowler was fullback Le'Ron McClain.
7. Denver Broncos, 2015
283.1 yards per game (1st in NFL), 18.5 points per game (4th in NFL)
There's been a lot of hyperbole the last couple of weeks, suggesting that the Broncos might be the best defense of all time. I get it. Denver's defense played extremely well in the regular season, and carried the team through the playoffs, never more visibly than in the Super Bowl. But the Broncos ranked 4th in the league in scoring defense. You would think that the best defense of all time would at least be clearly the best in its own season.
No two years are exactly the same, but not a lot has changed in the game of football in the last three years. So let's compare the 2015 Broncos to the 2013 Seattle Seahawks.
There are some good things Denver did that aren't apparent in such limited statistics, but the Seahawks allowed fewer yards and many fewer points, with almost 50% more takeaways. And Seattle's Super Bowl performance was even more dominant than Denver's, holding Peyton Manning's record-breaking offense to 8 meaningless points in the fourth quarter. The 2015 Broncos had a great defense, but it wasn't the best of all time, and it wasn't particularly close. I don't think there's a good argument to rank it among the top 30 defenses in history.
I did rate the Broncos significantly higher than my formula suggested. By the numbers, it's the 19th-best defense of the Illegal Contact Era, a little better if you adjust for the 2009 rule changes that further facilitated passing offense. The formula is just a starting point, and it clearly underrates this team, but it's one more illustration that we're overreacting to the latest big thing.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers, 2004
258.4 yards per game (1st in NFL), 15.7 points per game (1st in NFL)
The '04 Steelers went 15-1, including back-to-back regular-season wins over the AFC and NFC Super Bowl teams. They had four Pro Bowlers on defense: Aaron Smith, Joey Porter, Troy Polamalu, and all-pro linebacker James Farrior. Porter and Polamalu were second-team all-pro, but Farrior was the standout, with the best season of his fine career. He had 3 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and 4 interceptions for 113 yards and a touchdown.
Pittsburgh had a balanced defense. It was the league's top-ranked rush defense, just 81.2 yards per game, and held opponents to a 68.0 passer rating, about the same rating as Kyle Boller. If the Steelers' opponents were a quarterback, they would have ranked second-to-last in rating, ahead of only A.J. Feeley. The same defense carried Pittsburgh to a victory in Super Bowl XL the following season, but this year's team relied more on its defense and was more dominant over the course of the whole season.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers, 2010
276.8 yards per game (2nd in NFL), 14.5 points per game (1st in NFL)
Even though six years had passed, a lot of the key pieces from 2004 were still here. Farrior had the second-most tackles on the team, and Polamalu was named Defensive Player of the Year. To illustrate how good Farrior was in '04, compare that year to Polamalu in his DPOY season:
Ed Reed deserved to win Defensive Player of the Year in 2004, but it's a shame that his excellent season prevented Farrior from receiving recognition for a DPOY-quality performance.
Anyway, back to 2010. I rate this team ahead of '04 because it had comparable stats (more yards, fewer points, more turnovers) in an age when offenses are more productive. The 2010 Steelers were particularly outstanding against the run. They allowed just 3.0 yards per carry, and only 5 rushing touchdowns all season. Furthermore, they gave up just 1004 rush yards, one of only three teams ever to allow under 1,050 yards in a 16-game season. The others were the 2000 Ravens, one of the truly outstanding defenses in the history of professional football, and the 2006 Vikings, who had a terrific run defense but a porous pass defense that opponents were happy to exploit. The '06 Vikings went 6-10. The 2000 Ravens and 2010 Steelers both reached the Super Bowl.
Polamalu's excellence notwithstanding, Pittsburgh's linebacking corps truly powered this year's defense. Both of the outside linebackers, LaMarr Woodley and all-pro James Harrison, had double-digit sacks and multiple interceptions. The inside linebackers, Lawrence Timmons and Farrior, were equally outstanding. Farrior had 80 tackles and 6 sacks. Timmons had 96 tackles, 3 sacks, and 4 takeaways.
4. New York Jets, 2009
252.3 yards per game (1st in NFL), 14.8 points per game (1st in NFL)
In my opinion, this is one of the really underrated defenses in recent history. With Mark Sanchez and his 63.0 passer rating directing the 20th-ranked offense in the NFL, the Jets held seven of their 16 opponents to 10 points or less, including two shutouts, and reached the AFC Championship Game.
The Jets are particularly remarkable for their pass defense. Despite the new defenseless receiver rules and the Tom Brady rule protecting quarterbacks from low hits, the Jets held opponents to a 58.8 passer rating and 4.6 net yards per attempt. That's the lowest passer rating allowed by any defense under the illegal contact rules, one of only four defenses to hold opponents to a sub-60 rating in the last 20 years. All of the other three were Super Bowl champions: the 1996 Packers, the 2002 Buccaneers, and the 2003 Patriots.
Remarkably, this historic defense featured only two Pro Bowlers. Fortunately, one of them was Darrelle Revis. In 2009, Revis had probably the best season I've ever seen from a cornerback. This is why we talk about receivers being stranded on Revis Island: Andre Johnson, 4 catches for 35 yards. Randy Moss, 4 for 24 and 5 for 34. Steve Smith, 1 catch for 5 yards. Roddy White, 4 for 33. Reggie Wayne, 3 for 33.
The Jets didn't have an offense that allowed them to compete for a championship, and they didn't sustain their excellence long enough to register as a dynasty, so it's easy to overlook them. But for one season, this was a really special defense.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 2008
237.2 yards per game (1st in NFL), 13.9 points per game (1st in NFL)
The 2008 Steelers allowed 3,795 yards all season. The last defense that allowed so little yardage was the 1991 Philadelphia Eagles. The '08 Steelers were better than the '91 Eagles, and the '91 Eagles had a great defense. But that's a much different context. In '91, there were only 28 teams, not 32. Free agency was just getting started. Quarterbacks had fewer protections, receivers had fewer protections, conventional wisdom still said that running the ball was the key to success. Few teams used a Bill Walsh-style West Coast Offense. The 1991 Eagles also had a truly miserable offense, which reduces yardage allowed.
The '08 Steelers held half their regular-season opponents to 10 points or less, including a 31-0 shutout of the Browns in the final week of the season. They also swept the Ravens, 3-0 including a playoff win, and won Super Bowl XLIII. The key players were much the same as in 2004 and 2010. The defense produced three Pro Bowlers: James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, and James Farrior. Polamalu (7 INT) was first-team all-pro, and Harrison (16 sacks, 7 forced fumbles) won Defensive Player of the Year.
But this was also the height of Pittsburgh's defensive line. Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel, and especially Aaron Smith created opportunities for the teammates behind them. Smith had 44 tackles and 5.5 sacks, excellent stats for his position and responsibilities, and critical on a team that relies so heavily on its linebackers being free to make plays. LaMarr Woodley, in his first year as starter, was rightly overshadowed by Harrison, but he compiled 11.5 sacks and 5 takeaways, including a fumble recovery for a touchdown.
2. Seattle Seahawks, 2013
273.6 yards per game (1st in NFL), 14.4 points per game (1st in NFL)
Why do I rank the 2013 Seahawks ahead of the 2008 Steelers, who allowed fewer yards and fewer points, and who also won the Super Bowl? Because Seattle was facing more rules that favor offense, and the Seahawk defense was more dominant in the postseason. Seattle also generated 39 takeaways, compared to just 29 for Pittsburgh. That's a massive swing, 10 takeaways. Is it worth 400 yards? Probably. Even when turnovers don't set up scoring opportunities, or deprive the opponent of easy points, a punt usually gains about 40 yards, so ten 40-yard punts would probably save about 400 yards.
Facing new rules to protect quarterbacks and receivers, the 2013 Seahawks allowed the same 63.4 passer rating as Pittsburgh in '08. Seattle played a more aggressive style aimed at generating turnovers, whereas the Steelers played a more conservative game aimed at limiting yardage. Both were immensely effective.
The Seahawks held seven opponents to single-digit scoring — that's less than a touchdown and a field goal — including the record-breaking 2013 Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII. They forced at least one turnover in every game, and four or more turnovers five times, including the Super Bowl. In the playoffs, they beat the high-flying Saints 23-15, then defeated the 49ers 23-17 in the conference championship game, before embarrassing the Broncos, 43-8, in the Super Bowl.
Richard Sherman didn't win Defensive Player of the Year, but he easily could have, with 8 interceptions, returned for 125 yards and a TD, plus two fumble recoveries. He was a true shutdown corner, but also a highly effective ballhawk, and dangerous with the ball in his hands. Earl Thomas, with 5 INT and 78 tackles, joined Sherman on the all-pro team. Kam Chancellor made the Pro Bowl, Bobby Wagner led the team in tackles (with 5 sacks and 2 INTs, not too shabby), Michael Bennett led in sacks and forced fumbles. This defense had talent at all levels, and superior play from the defensive backfield lifted it to perhaps the greatest defense of the era.
1. Baltimore Ravens, 2006
264.1 yards per game (1st in NFL), 12.6 points per game (1st in NFL)
They started the season with a shutout of the defending NFC South champions and went on to a franchise-best 13-3 record. Six defensive players made the Pro Bowl, and it wouldn't have been crazy for all 11 to go. Consider this honor roll: Trevor Pryce (13 sacks), Kelly Gregg (3.5 sacks, 3 FR), Haloti Ngata (60-yard INT return), Samari Rolle (3 INT), Dawan Landry (5 INT, 3 sacks). Those are the guys who didn't make the trip to Hawaii. Now add Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Chris McAlister, Bart Scott, and Adalius Thomas. That is one seriously loaded defense. For across-the-board, weakest-link talent, I don't think there's been a defense like it since the Steel Curtain. Maybe never.
These Ravens ranked 2nd in yards per carry against (3.3) and led the league in opponents' passer rating (63.4). They didn't allow any of their last eight opponents to score 20 points. Even in their playoff loss, they held the eventual Super Bowl champions to five field goals and no touchdowns. The '06 Ravens allowed the fewest points, 201, of any team in the Illegal Contact Era. I think the 2000 Super Bowl champions had the best defense in franchise history, but there's an argument to be made that the '06 version might have been even better.