Monday, November 4, 2019
Hinch Didn’t Blow it, the Nats Won It
It's not going to make the pill any easier to swallow, but it wasn't A.J. Hinch's fault. He's not the reason the Astros lost a World Series they seemed destined to win both going in and while they were just eight outs from the Promised Land.
I know Hinch didn't even think about bringing Gerrit Cole in if he'd decided Zack Greinke had had enough. I second guessed it myself when first writing about Game 7. And I was really wrong. Just as you are, Astroworld, to lay the loss on Hinch's head. The Nats beat the Astros, plain and simple. Through no fault of Hinch's.
He wasn't even close to having lost his marble. Singular. He actually managed just right in that moment. It's no more his fault that Howie Kendrick made him look like a fool right after he made his move than it was his fault the Astros couldn't bury a Max Scherzer who had nothing but meatballs, snowballs, grapefruits, and cantaloupes to throw, two days after Scherzer's neck locked up so tight it knocked him out of Game 5 before the game even began.
Max the Knife wasn't even a butter knife starting Game 7 and the best the Astros could do against him was an inning-opening solo home run by Yuli Gurriel and an RBI single by Carlos Correa. Remember, as so many love to bleat, the manager doesn't play the game. Not since the end of the player-manager era.
And I get the psychological factor that would have been involved if Hinch brought Cole in instead of Will Harris. Likely American League Cy Young Award winner in waiting in to drop the hammer and nail down a win and a trophy. The Nats may have spanked Cole and company in Game 1, but Cole manhandled them in Game 5.
Even the Nats thought Cole was likely to come in if Greinke was coming out and, as their hitting coach Kevin Long said after Game 7, they would have welcomed it after the surgery Greinke performed on them until the top of the seventh.
You had to appreciate an anyone-but-Greinke mindset among the Nats. Maybe even think within reason that that kind of thinking — never mind Anthony Rendon homering with one out in the top of the seventh — would leave them even more vulnerable once Cole went to work.
Pay attention, class. Cole pitched magnificently in 2019 and his earned run average was 2.19 with a postseason 1.72. But Harris, believe it or not, was a little bit better: his regular season ERA was 1.50 and his postseason ERA until Game 7 was (read carefully) 0.93.
Cole led the American League with a 2.64 fielding-independent pitching rate and Harris finished the season with a 3.15, but all that means is that Harris depends on the Astros' stellar defense a little bit more than Cole does. And Harris walks into a few more dicey situations in his line of work. Plus, Cole never pitched even a third of an inning's relief in his entire professional career, major and minor league alike.
Don't even think about answering, "Madison Bumgarner." Yes, Bumgarner closed out the 2014 World Series with shutout relief. And it began by going in clean starting in the bottom of the fifth. Bruce Bochy, who may or may not stay retired as I write, didn't bring MadBum into a man on first/one-out scenario.
When Hinch said after Game 7 that he planned to use Cole to nail the game down shut if the Astros kept a lead, he was only saying he planned to use Cole where he was suited best, starting a clean inning, his natural habitat. Harris is one of his men whose profession involves walking into fires of all shapes and sizes when need be.
It was need-be time in Game 7. Even Cole acknowledged as much in the breach, when he said postgame, "We just went over the game plan and he laid out the most advantageous times to use me. And we didn't get to that position."
Why lift Greinke after only eighty pitches on the night? Greinke historically is almost as tough on a lineup when he gets a third crack at it, but things really are a little bit different in the World Series. Even if Greinke did surrender a single run in four-and-two-thirds Game 3 innings.
He may have performed microsurgery on the Nats through six, but he's not the long distance operator he used to be anymore, either, at 36. And he hadn't exactly had an unblemished postseason before the Series. He'd been battered by the Rays in the division series; he'd been slapped enough by the Yankees in the ALCS.
As Hinch himself observed after Game 7 ended, "We asked him to do more today than he had done, and pitched deeper into the game more than he had done in the entire month of October. I wanted to take him out a bat or two early rather than a bat or two late."
And Greinke himself believed the Nats were a lot more tough than their evening full of pre-seventh inning soft contacts at the plate indicated. "They got a good lineup, especially the top of the order," he told reporters after the game. "It's tough to get through no matter one time, two times, three times. All of them are tough. Really good hitters up there."
He got the proof of that when Rendon hammered his 1-0 service halfway up the Crawford Boxes and Juan Soto focused for a walk on 3-1. When it's winner-take-all you don't want even a Greinke in a position to fail or for the Nats to be just a little bit better after all.
Hinch wasn't going to walk his effective but lately erratic closer Roberto Osuna into this moment despite Osuna's 2.63 ERA, 0.88 walks/hits per inning pitched rate, and league-leading 38 saves on the regular season. Osuna's postseason ERA was up over 3.50 and his WHIP was reaching 2.00.
So Hinch, one of the most thoughtful and sensitively intelligent managers in the game today, really did reach for his absolute best option in the moment. He was right, I was wrong, and the only thing wrong with Hinch's move wore a Nationals uniform.
The best teams in baseball get beaten now and then. The best pitchers in the game get beaten. The smartest managers in the game get beaten even when they make the right move. The only more inviolable baseball law than Berra's Law is the law that says somebody has to lose. And now and then someone's going to beat the best you have in the moment.
This was not Joe McCarthy starting Denny Galehouse over Mel Parnell with the 1948 pennant on the line.
This was not Casey Stengel failing to align his World Series rotation so Hall of Famer Whitey Ford (whose two shutouts are evidence for the prosecution) could start more than two 1960 World Series games.
This was not Gene Mauch panicking after a rookie stole home on his best pickoff pitcher and thinking he could use Hall of Famer Jim Bunning and Chris Short on two days' rest in the last days of 1964.
This was not Don Zimmer doghousing Bill Lee, his best left-hander against the Yankees, and choosing Bobby (Ice Water in His Veins) Sprowl over Luis Tiant to stop what became the Boston Massacre in 1978.
This was not John McNamara with a weak bullpen and a heart overruling his head to send ankle-compromised Bill Buckner out to play one more inning at first base in the bottom of the 10th, Game 6, 1986.
This was not Dusty Baker sending an already season long-overworked Mark Prior back out for the top of the eighth with the Cubs six outs from going to the 2003 World Series.
This was not Grady Little measuring Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez's heart but forgetting to check his petrol tank in Game 7 of the 2003 American League Championship Series.
This was not Mike Matheny refusing to even think about his best reliever, Trevor Rosenthal, simply because it wasn't yet a "proper" save situation with two on, a rusty Michael Wacha on the mound, and Travis Ishikawa checking in at the plate in the bottom of the ninth in Game 5 of the 2014 National League Championship Series.
This was not Buck Showalter getting his Matheny on with the best relief pitcher in baseball (Zach Britton) not even throwing in the pen, never mind ready to go, with two on and Edwin Encarnacion checking in — in a two-all tie in the bottom of the 11th — against a mere Ubaldo Jimenez at the 2016 American League wild card game plate. Because that, too, just wasn't, you know, a "proper" save situation.
Hinch did exactly he should have done in the moment if he was going to lift Greinke. He reached for the right tool for the job. So did Mauch, in the 1986 ALCS, with the Angels on the threshold of the 1986 World Series, if he was going to lift Mike Witt but not trust Gary Lucas after the latter plunked Rich Gedman, turning it over to Donnie Moore.
It wasn't Mauch's or Moore's fault that he threw Dave Henderson the perfect nasty knee-high, outer-edge forkball, the exact match to the one Henderson had just foul tipped away, and Henderson had to reach hard and wide again to send it over the left field fence.
It wasn't Hinch's fault that Harris threw Kendrick the best he had to throw, too, a cutter off the middle and at the low outside corner, and watched it bonk off the right field foul pole. Just ask Harris himself, as a reporter did after Game 7: "It's every reliever's worst nightmare. [Kendrick] made a championship play for a championship team."
Better yet, ask Correa, the only Astro somehow to have a base hit with a runner on second or better Wednesday night. "The pitch he made to Howie — I just don't understand how he hit that out," he said. "It doesn't add up. The way he throws his cutter, it's one of the nastiest cutters in the game. Down and away, on the black, and he hits it off the foul pole."
Now and then even the best teams in the game get beaten. Now and then even the best pitchers in the game get beaten. Sometimes more than now and then. Nobody was better in their absolute primes this century than Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. Yet Kershaw has a postseason resume described most politely as dubious and Verlander's lifetime World Series ERA is 5.68.
And even the smartest skippers in the game lose. Hall of Famer John McGraw got outsmarted by a kid player-manager named Bucky Harris in Game 7 of the 1924 World Series, though even Harris needed four shutout relief innings from aging Hall of Famer Walter Johnson and a bad hop over Giants third baseman Freddie Lindstrom to secure what was previously Washington's only known major league World Series conquest.
McCarthy and Stengel were at or near the end of Hall of Fame managing careers (Stengel was really more of a caretaker as the 1962-65 Mets sent out the clowns while their front office built an organization) when they made their most fatal mis-judgments.
And yet another Hall of Famer, Tony La Russa, suffered a fatal brain freeze. His failure to even think about his Hall of Fame relief ace Dennis Eckersley earlier than the ninth-inning save situations cost him twice and would have kept the Reds from a 1990 Series sweep, if not from winning the Series itself.
The Astros had seven men bat with men in scoring position in Game 7 and only Correa nailed a base hit. The Nats went 2-for-9 in the same position. And, for a change, left three fewer men on than the Astros did.
The Astros couldn't hit a gimp with a hangar door. The Nats punctured an Astro who dealt trump for six innings and made two fateful mistakes in the seventh that the Nats took complete advantage of. Then their best relief option in the moment got thumped with his absolute best pitch.
Because baseball isn't immune to the law of unintended consequences, either. It never was. It never will be. The Astros were the better team until the World Series. The Nats ended up the better team in the World Series. And that isn't exactly unheard of, either.
Few teams in baseball have been better than the 1906 Cubs, the 1914 Philadelphia Athletics, the 1954 Indians, the 1960 Yankees, the 1969 Orioles, the 1987 Cardinals, the 1988 and 1990 A's, the 2003 Yankees, and the 2006 Tigers. They all lost World Series in those years. And two of them ('60 Yankees; '87 Cardinals) went the distance before losing.
Yet the Nats scored the greatest upset in the history of the Series, and not just because they're the first to reach the Promised Land entirely on the road. The Astros were Series favorites by the largest margin ever going in. And only the 1914 Braves were down lower during their regular season than the Nats were in late May this year.
But that year's A's, the first of two Connie Mack dynasties, weren't favored as heavily to win as this year's Astros.
The Dodgers were overwhelming National League favorites to get to this World Series — until Kendrick's monstrous 10th-inning grand slam. Then the Cardinals were favored enough to make it — until they ran into a Washington vacuum cleaner that beat, swept, and cleaned them four straight.
The Astros didn't have it that easy getting to this Series. The ornery upstart Rays made them win a pair of elimination games first. Then it took Yankee skipper Aaron Boone's dice roll in the bottom of the ALCS Game 6 ninth — refusing to walk Jose Altuve with George Springer aboard and comparative spaghetti-bat Jake Marisnick on deck — to enable Altuve's mammoth two-run homer off a faltering Aroldis Chapman with the pennant attached.
Hinch made the right move in the circumstance and the moment and the Nats made the righter play. The championship play, as Correa put it. The play for the Promised Land. Soto's eighth-inning RBI single and Eaton's ninth-inning two-run single were just insurance policies.
Astro fans fuming that Hinch "blew" the World Series for them refuse to accept that, when push comes to shove, as it did twice for the Nats, the other guys can and do beat the best thrown their way.
When Hinch says that not bringing in Cole was a mistake he'd have to live with, he shouldered a blame that wasn't his to shoulder. Even if his happen to be the strongest in Astroworld.