Tuesday, February 16, 2021
Is One and Done, Done?
Has the one-and-done worn its welcome?
The answer could be maybe ... or not.
As long as the NBA makes athletes play one year of college before turning pro, there will be teams lined up to grab all the talent they can, even if it lasts them just one season. That's a given.
However, as we watch the struggles of Kentucky, a program that definitely went all in on the one-and-dones, a question comes up that might be better suited for this commentary: Is going all in on one-and-dones over?
There's a significant catch when you sign a slew of top talent each year in college hoops, more so than in college football. Where the latter has 85 scholarship players, the former has slightly less than 1/5th of that. The chemistry of building a team and playing together, especially amongst players that were all the best on their teams and who all have NBA dreams in 365 days can be pretty daunting.
It's been done before, though. John Calipari's 2012 Kentucky squad was loaded with freshmen talent, notably Anthony Davis. But the Cats played extremely well as a team and it resulted in Calipari's only national title while in Lexington.
Calipari also took Kentucky to the Final Four in 2011, 2014, and 2015. His system has worked and worked well.
But sometimes, it can backfire. Kentucky fans would wish to forget the 2013 version, which fell to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT. And somehow, it hasn't clicked for them this year at all.
In an unprecedented year, you tend to realize things can happen. A 6-13 Kentucky wasn't what people were expecting though, especially in Big Blue Nation.
So, one-and-dones en masse has proven to be high risk, high reward ... or rock bottom in the worst case.
Teams lately are avoiding that strategy, opting instead for senior leadership, with the occasional one-and-done player mixed in. It's lower risk for the coach and program, and so far, the rewards seem to be paying off. Take a look at this week's AP top three for example.
#1 Gonzaga (20-0) — The 'Zags have the uber-talented freshman Jalen Suggs mixed in with some great veteran leadership. Leading scorer Drew Timmer is a senior, along with forward Corey Kispart. Guard Joel Ayayi is a junior. Notable as well: Gonzaga has five players on their roster (Ayayi being one of them) from outside the U.S. Mark Few recruits all over the world to land his team.
#2 Baylor (17-0) — The Bears are led by upperclassmen as well. Leading scorer Jared Butler is a senior guard (an extremely valuable asset in March). MaCio Teague is another talented senior guard. Leading rebounder Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is a sophomore from Cameroon, proving again that the international route is becoming a major force in college basketball.
#3 Michigan (14-1) — Sure, Michigan has a freshman phenom in Hunter Dickerson, a 7-1 center who can control a game inside the paint. But the Wolverines are stacked with senior talent. Senior forward Isaiah Livers has terrorized the Big Ten and creates arguably the best front-court in the nation with Dickerson. Mike Smith is the type of quality senior guard that a championship team needs. And Franz Wagner is a 6-9 defensive nightmare from Berlin ... showing Juwan Howard also knows the secret sauce to success.
Teams laden with upperclassment talent, sprinkled with one or two star freshmen and international talent. The current results? A combined 51-1 between those three schools.
College basketball seems to be shifting before our eyes. The era of one-and-done seems to be getting replaced. And if the NBA reverses course and lets teams draft high schoolers again, the new norm will become just the norm.