When the calendar reaches the first full week of April, the Masters provides tradition and familiarity to avid golf fans, casual observers, and even people who only watch because they can't take their eyes off those barely believable shades of green all over the course.
It's the most famous tournament of the year, the most desirable one to win for most players, and the only major that offers the same holes, music, and buttoned-up TV coverage each year. Even the food prices and the entrance to the clubhouse are iconic in large part due to their stagnancy in a constantly changing country and world.
While all the familiar hues, sounds, and images are back for Masters Week 2023, the pro golf world is decidedly different than last April, and that might make this year's Masters one of the most compelling major championships we've seen in years.
In recent PGA Tour seasons past, we would have seen all of the world's top players and biggest names compete in the same event at The Players Championship. Thanks to the emergence of LIV Golf and its Saudi billions last year, the Masters is the first time this year we get to see a field as loaded as it possibly can be.
However, one of the great ironies of the PGA Tour's response to LIV is that, thanks to the Tour's designated events throughout the schedule, we've seen a lot of competitive golf so far this year with great fields and massive paydays. Now, Dustin Johnson, Cam Smith, Joaquin Niemann, Patrick Reed, and 14 others from LIV are in the most exclusive major championship field on the calendar along with the biggest names on the PGA Tour, and the hype couldn't feel bigger.
Let's preview the tournament with a few questions.
What do the LIV players need to prove?
When the Masters announced last December that qualified LIV golfers would be eligible for the tournament, this tournament was bound to become a huge inflection point in the PGA-LIV battle. In the months since, we've seen a lot of competitive golf between big-name players on Tour. Observers who have watched LIV events in 2023 haven't exactly seen the same level of high-stakes golf. (Full disclosure: I haven't tuned into any of LIV's three events so far this year, and if the ratings are any indication, neither have you.)
If LIV events are merely glorified exhibition gimmicks with giant purses, it stands to reason that those 18 players will struggle to adapt back to 72-hole tournament golf and the mental and physical rigors of a major championship. The defected players themselves seem to be downplaying the Masters being a referendum on LIV's viability as a preparation for major golf, but if the PGA Tour sweeps the leaderboard next Sunday, eyeballs and attention aren't exactly going to be going LIV's way.
Meanwhile, if LIV players make up, say, four or five of the top 10 after 72 holes at Augusta, it could yet show some value to those who follow professional golf — and make it harder to keep LIV out of the Official World Golf Ranking. If relative successes were to come in the other majors, maybe LIV reignites the war for talent and is able to pick off more Tour players. We're a long way off from that, though.
I don't know that I buy that LIV will be on life support with a poor Augusta showing, though — Norman and the Saudis will be too stubborn to give up after less than two or three years. That said, there's clearly something on the line this week for the breakaway circuit.
Who is the favorite?
According to some outlets, it's Rory McIlroy. Some have Scottie Scheffler as the moneyline favorite. Some have McIlroy and Scheffler in a dead heat. To me, I can't look past Scheffler as the true favorite here.
It's not exactly going out on a limb to expect the No. 1 player in the world and the defending champion to win the tournament, but the worst thing you can say about Scheffler's form is that he hasn't won three times in the two months leading up to the Masters like he did last year. Instead, he's merely won twice, including the most important event to this point in the calendar, and was in contention on Sunday at two other designated events.
Scheffler is playing at such a high level that he doesn't actually need to putt well to beat the field. During his dominant victory at TPC Sawgrass, he putted at an average level, but was so excellent from tee to green that even his worst round still clocked in at 3.1 strokes gained on the field.
The bookmakers have McIlroy and Jon Rahm at similar chances to wear the green jacket on Sunday evening. While McIlroy looked great at the WGC Match Play event in Austin a week ago, he's had some inconsistency with both putter and driver in recent months, leading to some equipment changes. Rahm had been on a 2022 Scheffler-level heater during the winter, but he's not looked his best since fading after Round 1 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.
Who would a green jacket mean the most to?
Until he wins one, the answer to this question is going to be Rory. A win would give him a career Grand Slam, his first major win in almost nine years, and solidify him as the greatest golfer of his era. But for this tournament this year, the first major since McIlroy and Tiger Woods forced the Tour to evolve due to the threat of LIV, a win at Augusta would carry unprecedented significance.
Who might be a good sleeper pick to win the Masters?
I have three picks here: Sungjae Im (+3600), Justin Rose (+5500), and Niemann (+7500). Im hasn't lit the world on fire so far this season, but he has a few top-10 finishes, including a T6 at The Players. He loves Augusta, with his only two top-10s in majors coming at the Masters.
It's hard to imagine a more popular winner outside of the top 25 in the world than Rose, the winner this year at Pebble Beach during a Monday finish. In 16 past starts at Augusta, Rose has six top 10s, including two seconds. And despite missing two cuts at the Masters since 2019, his career scoring average on Magnolia Lane is comparable to excellent players like Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and Tony Finau.
Niemann is a bit more of a shot in the dark since he's with LIV, and doesn't have a top 10 in those 48-man fields so far this season (as of writing time on April 1, it doesn't look like he'll get there in their Orlando event). I do appreciate how he's embraced the LIV rivalry cause for this major, however. My logic when it comes to actual golf is this: he's the best of the LIV players who didn't qualify with an exemption for winning the Masters or another major, and therefore needs to finish T12 or better this week. I'm thinking there will be one or two LIV players who outperform expectations, and I trust the combination of Niemann's driving distance and approach play at this course.
What effect will the longer 13th hole have on the tournament?
The 13th hole has historically been one of the easiest on the course and, at the end of Amen Corner, can provide a big hitter with a real chance at making up strokes after the gauntlet of 11 and 12. Now, the teebox has been moved back 35 yards, making the first shot much harder for the pros to drive over or around the trees on a dogleg left par 5.
Last year, Augusta National lengthened the 15th — the other par 5 on the back nine. The result was a lot more laying up on the second shot, and the number of eagles went from six in 2021 to none in 2022. We're likely to see a similar effect this year with 13, as going for the green in two could be very risky with Rae's Creek and four bunkers bordering the green. Eagle may still be in play at 13 for some depending on pin placement, but it might not play as Amen Corner's safe haven like it once did.
The most famous golf tournament in the world doesn't usually need extra drama and storylines to captivate fans, but this year's Masters has both in spades.
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