Hey, cats and kittens, it's been awhile since I broke down a boxing card, so let's do it again.
This time, we are looking at Saturday's event called "The Ring III." "The Ring" means Ring Magazine, a heralded boxing rag. It's on DAZN PPV on Saturday. DAZN, you probably know, is officially pronounced "Da Zone," but I still want to pronounce it the way it is spelled, which would be like "Dazzin'." It'll take place in NYC, specifically Louis Armstrong stadium, which is known as the U.S. Open tennis venue.
All odds courtesy of Bovada.
Shakur Stevenson (23-0, 11 KOs) vs. William Zepeda (33-0, 27 KOs)
This is for the WBC Lightweight title, and somebody's zero has got to go, as they say.
Stevenson gets a lot of flack for being a boring fighter, because he's more likely to dominate a fella for 12 rounds rather than knock him out. All of his decision wins as a professional have been unanimous.
The same cannot be said for Zepeda, who won his last two fights by split or majority decision, both over Tevin Farmer. As you can see from his record, he does indeed have power.
This is an elite fight between the #2 and the #4 ranked lightweights per Boxrec. If I were setting the odds, I'd make Stevenson about a -500 favorite, but instead he's a -2000 favorite, with Zepeda getting +900. So I say take Zepeda and hope for the best.
Hamzah Sheeraz (21-0-1, 17 KOs) vs. Edgar Berlanga (23-1, 18 KOs)
I've written about Berlanga before, because he's an interesting case. He caught the boxing world's attention by opening his professional career with an incredible streak of first round knockouts, 16 in all. His 17th opponent, Demond Nicholson, finally got out of the first round, and indeed went the distance with him, but Berlanga won on the judge's scorecards unanimously. After that, he went five fights without knocking anyone out at all, although won all of those fights unaninmously, as well.
Finally, he has gotten back on his knockout horse, with his last two victories being by KO. The last one, against Jonathan Gonzalez-Ortiz in March, was a first round knockout just like the good ol' days.
Sandwiched in between those two victories, he fought Canelo Alvarez, perhaps still the best boxer in the world, and it went predictably.
Despite losing widely, Berlanga nonetheless went the distance and won at least one round on all three judge's scorecards.
So Berlanga can win both the long game and the short game, and he doesn't have a blemish in his career.
Sheeraz is coming off a draw with Carlos Adames, who is a great fighter but is no Canelo. Sheeraz is a great fighter too, and is ranked higher than Berlanga in Boxrec rankings (#5 vs. #9 at super middleweight). But he's never fought outside of his home UK or Saudi Arabia.
I've already shown my hand here, but I think Berlanga has great value here as an underdog (+105).
David Morrell (11-1, 9 KOs) vs. Imam Khataev (10-0, 9 KOs)
This fight is up in the air because Khataev has failed a drug test for clomiphene. The reason it's "up in the air" and not "off" is because the drug testing body that administered the failed test does not have jurisdiction over the fight, and Khataev has apparently passed all of the drug tests with the organizations that do. Additionally, the failed test was from April of last year; I'm not sure why it took them that long to adjudicate a failed test.
I've written about Morrell before, too. He was enough of a decorated amateur to get a super middleweight world title fight shot in just his third pro fight, which he won. He then went on to move up to light heavyweight and win a world title there, too. Then he ran into David Benevidez, the #6 pound-for-pound fighter in the world per Boxrec, and while he lost a unanimous decision, it was close on two judge's scorecards.
So we'll see if the fight happens. If it does, I like Khataev, because he's on clomiphene. Just kidding! I normally like taking a chance on underdogs who have knocked everyone out in their career and, for fights that went the distance, won every round on every judge's scorecard. That applies here with Khataev.
But Khataev hasn't beaten anyone of note, and his odds (+400) aren't juicy enough for me. In fact, I think the value lies in Morrell at -650.
Albert Puello (24-0,10 KOs) vs. Subriel Matias (22-2, 22 KOs)
This one is for Puello's WBC Super Lightweight belt, and Bovada has it as a virtual toss-up, with Puello at -125 and Matias at -105.
Matias had a pretty bad hiccup three fights ago, losing on Puerto Rican home soil to Australian Liam Paro and losing his IBF Super Lightweight strap in the process. He's rebounded with a couple of KOs since then (his other loss was over 5 years ago).
Puello is undefeated, but coming off two straight and three out of four split decision wins. He also hasn't been as active as Matias: this is just his fifth fight in four years.
In the Boxrec ranking algorithms, Matias is adjudged to be the #2 super lightweight in the world, and Puello is #11. Add this all up, and I like Matias at -105.
Leave a Comment