Every August, the paradox of NFL "games" played in this month sneaks up on me.
There's so much anticipation for the season ahead, and the average sports fan is pleased that a fall and early winter of all the football you can eat is around the corner. At the same time, you might be doing yourself a bit of disservice as an informed fan by watching said football played in August.
Everyone loves their team this time of year. Tackles, edge rushers, and nickel corners are showing up in amazing shape after injuries last year. New signings and draft picks are killing it on the practice field. Even once-heralded prospects can have a day or two in the limelight in the preseason.
The speculation and hopefulness are a part of the natural cycle of the football industrial complex.
But there will be 272 regular season games played, and 270-ish game winners from September to early January (give or take a few likely ties). At some point, preseason optimism gives way to results.
If you can correctly parse out where the hype is real and who's got a bad read on their team, there are many, many futures bets available to casual and more engaged bettors.
Two years ago, I went through a series of season-long futures bets I felt good about before the 2023 season. I got three out of five right, finishing up $117 on a hypothetical $100 bet on each.
Let's run that exercise back for 2025. I'll be choosing one bet from five categories: team win total, making/missing the playoffs, division winner, player totals, and season-long award.
All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of August 11.
Team win total
Los Angeles Chargers under 8.5 wins (+125)
The Chargers might be an example where the preseason vibes aren't that flowery. Just-extended left tackle Rashawn Slater is out for the season after tearing his patellar tendon, and running back signing Najee Harris was out for a few weeks with an eye injury that apparently happened because of a fireworks accident. Yikes.
Also, the Chargers play nine games against 2024 playoff teams. The AFC West should be improved with upgrades in Denver and Las Vegas, and a defense that probably overachieved in 2024 had some key veteran losses in the offseason. I'm picking an alternate line for a total here, with the thought that each of the other three AFC West teams have more complete rosters and someone will finish under .500.
The "standard" total here is under 9.5 wins, with odds of -130.
Playoffs
Washington Commanders to miss the playoffs (+108)
Jayden Daniels was a revelation in his rookie season, much as C.J. Stroud showed out for Houston a year earlier. The Texans got back to the playoffs and won a game, despite Stroud not looking as good in his sophomore season.
If Daniels isn't quite as good with a year of film for teams to study, can the Commanders produce a similar result? It's going to be tough.
Washington has a huge rest disadvantage on its schedule, with a total of 13 fewer rest days than its opponents across the schedule. Even with Terry McLaurin's hold-in for a new contract, the offense should be fine. But I don't know that we can expect the Commanders to convert on nearly 80% of fourth downs again in 2025. If that number isn't sky-high again with Dan Quinn's gambling tendencies, it will affect Washington's so-so defense.
Clearly the future is bright in Washington, but this team seems like a prime candidate for post-surprise regression.
Division
Los Angeles Rams to win NFC West (+200)
I was mildly surprised to see that San Francisco, and not L.A., is favored to win the NFC West. However, schedule metrics love the Niners' chances of getting to 10 wins, and we've seen from the 2019 and 2021 seasons that Kyle Shanahan teams bounce back strongly from losing seasons.
But I don't think I trust the Niners to go most of a season without major injuries anymore. And we can't forget that the Rams were only about 20 yards away from taking down the team who dominated the rest of the playoffs last season.
Poona Ford was a big signing for the middle of the defensive line, so the Rams should be able to stop the run better after giving up 4.6 yards per carry in 2024. The offensive line and skill positions look strong, too. I think this is a division winner — and possibly more.
Player
Aaron Jones over 725.5 rushing yards (-114)
In general, Aaron Jones is a 1,000-yard per season back in the NFL. He's hit a thousand every season when he's played 16 or 17 games, and even got there playing 14 games in 2020 with the Packers. However, Jordan Mason was acquired from San Francisco, and it looks likely that he and Jones will share carries.
So why am I confident Jones will get this number on the ground? Because I think the Vikings are going to run the ball a ton with de facto rookie J.J. McCarthy behind center. If we give Jones 4.7 yards per carry, which is under his career average, he'd only have to get about 10 carries a game over 17 games to eclipse 725.5. Barring injury, I think this is a great bet.
Award
Mike Vrabel to win Coach of the Year (+750)
Ben Johnson, Vrabel, Liam Coen, Aaron Glenn, and Pete Carroll are the top five in odds for this award. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that the formula here is "team expected to improve with a coach who is in his first year with the club."
I think Johnson is a well-earned favorite, but last year has me skeptical of the Bears' potential. On paper, both lines should be improved and Caleb Williams will benefit from Johnson's coaching. But I don't know that they'll do anything excellently.
I am pretty sure that the Patriots' defense is going to be really good. It may not be "stop Josh Allen" in the division good, but that's a high bar. I think 10 or 11 wins with the 30th-ranked strength of schedule is attainable. It also might be the type of team that wins a lot of 16-10 games, but Vrabel has never been the type of coach for style points.
The beauty of August is that everyone's a believer, and that collective optimism creates opportunities for those willing to bet on futures. Whether these bets hit or miss, they're grounded in looking above the short-term content and daily training camp reports.
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