Predicted records in parentheses.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (14-3) — It took John Elway 15 years to win a Super Bowl. So why can't Josh Allen do it in eight? It looks as if the road to Super Bowl LX from the AFC goes through New York State's Only Team.
New England Patriots (8-9) — In five years coaching the Titans, Mike Vrabel was 56-48, and his chief claim to fame was when he eschewed a game-tying field goal in overtime against the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, instead going for a game-winning touchdown, which Tennessee scored. He can be expected to bring that same style to his new team, and a staff that includes Josh McDaneils and former Final Four'er Doug Marrone on hand to show QB Drake Maye the ropes. But pass rush needs massive improvement after finishing last in the entire NFL with just 28 sacks a year ago, although free agent acquisition Milton Willliams should provide a boost. Their last-place division finish in 2024 will give them an easier schedule than both the Dolphins and Jets, which could enable them to complete the exacta, albeit distantly.
Miami Dolphins (6-11) — Tua Tagovailoa is notoriously fragile, and his "arm talent" is nothing to write home about. Running game is also subpar and ranked dead last in short-yardage and goal-line plays last season, but defense has been playing better than expected lately. Schedule does them no favors, sending them on the road to play the Jets, Steelers (on Monday night) and Patriots in December or later (they're 27-59 on the road at northern, outdoor venues in November or later dating all the way back to 1995). Will be hard put to even match either their won-lost record or their division finish of 2024.
New York Jets (4-13) — Haven't made the playoffs in 14 years — a postseason drought equaled only by the NHL's Buffalo Sabres. Poor Fireman Ed. He deserves much better than that.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals (12-5) — They're living proof as to how pass-happy today's NFL is: they have no running game, no offensive line, and no defense — yet they have posted four consecutive winning seasons, including a Final Four appearance and a Super Bowl appearance. Managed to keep defensive end Trey Hendrickson, but must avoid leaving themselves with too much to do after starting 0-3, 1-3, and 0-2 the last three years.
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) — In the late '70s, the Patriots were said to have suffered from the "Bozo Syndrome" because more often than not they played like clowns in the clutch. Same goes for Lamar Jackson: he's 3-5 in the playoffs, including three losses at home.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8) — Death, taxes, and them not having a losing season — and maybe, or maybe not, making the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns (4-13) — Vying for the title of "Team Turmoil" (with Dallas, strangely enough) for their gross mishandling of the Shedeur Sanders situation — and even their schedule won't bring much relief (a drop of only 17 percentage points from their 2024 slate). Unlike Gloria Gaynor, Kevin Stefanski will not survive.
AFC South
Houston Texans (11-6) — They tower over this division once again — but they still won't get to the Final Four for the first time in franchise history.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-9) — Made a George Allen-like quick-fix trade on draft day, mortgaging two first-round picks plus a second-round pick to obtain wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, who played for Deion Sanders at Colorado. Whether this gets them into trouble down the road remains to be seen — but it does give them a good shot to complete the exacta here.
Tennessee Titans (7-10) — Will Levis and Mason Rudolph were sacked a combined 52 times last year, and #1 overall draftee Cam Ward is being counted on to provide greater mobility and elusiveness at the position. Defense ranked a lofty second in the NFL in both total defense and pass defense, but that may be misleading since too many teams may have played "not to lose" against them due to their offensive struggles (they were 26th against the run — often a dead giveaway that this is occurring). Brian Callahan, getting a second chance after a 3-14 rookie season a year ago as head coach, is going to have to do better in his second year if he is to get a third one.
Indianapolis Colts (5-12) — They're squandering Anthony Richardson's talent, opting instead to open the season with Daniel Jones (a proven loser — 25-45-1 as a starter) at quarterback, inviting opponents to shove eight in the box to stop Jonathan Taylor (1,431 yards in 2024) and make Jones beat them. Shane Steichen enters his third season as head coach after going 17-17 in his first two seasons, and not making the playoffs either time; pass.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (13-4) — It's their turn to fall victim to the dreaded Super Bowl Runner-Up Jinx — and for the second year in a row, their game against the Bills is in Buffalo. Should easily win this division for the 10th straight time, however.
Denver Broncos (10-7) — Bo Nix surely "nixed" the doubters as he led them to an implausible playoff appearance last season. Marvin Mims brings needed speed to a WR contingent that otherwise lacks it, but RBs lack size and have fumble issues. Defense led the entire league in sacks a year ago with 63 (runner-up Baltimore had 54!), and Patrick Surtain II was voted NFL Defensive Player of the Year for 2024. You can call them Snickers' Team — because they're not going anywhere for a while.
Los Angeles Chargers (9-8) — Justin Herbert is one of the league's premier "gunslingers," but has yet to win a playoff game (0-2). Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton arrive via free agency and the draft, respectively, to bulk up a running game that was 24th in yards per carry a year ago. Defense allowed the fewest points in the entire NFL last season, but have since lost Poona Ford and Joey Bosa in free agency. Looks to be a fringe player in the postseason picture in their second season under HC Jim Harbaugh.
Las Vegas Raiders (5-12) — They're 128-230 since losing Super Bowl XXXVII to Tampa Bay, of which 18-33 over the past three seasons; incoming head coach Pete Carroll ignored the free agency and draft options at QB, settling for Geno Smith, who played for Carroll for two years at Seattle. Rookie WR Dont'e Thornton has a rare size-speed combo (6'5" and 4.3), but RB corps could be the smallest in the league, meaning that short yardage could be a problem (see Miami).
NFC East
Washington Commanders (11-6) — The last time a team repeated as champions of this division, a loaf of bread cost $1.58, while a gallon of gas went for $1.88 — in 2004. In addition, they ran a surplus of 27 starter/man-games during free agency, while the Eagles sustained a deficit of 27 starter/man-games. A perfect symmetry if ever there was one.
Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) — The top two teams in this division are forced to take the biggest jumps in comparative strength of schedule in the entire NFL — both in excess of 100 percentage points. This team better not get behind in too many games because their pedestrian receivers will not be able to bail them out.
New York Giants (6-11) — If he doesn't get arrested for stealing crabcakes or run out of town for throwing 30 interceptions, Jameis Winston might wrest the starting QB job from Russell Wilson, who will turn 37 during the season (isn't there supposed to be a "Curse of 37" in sports?). Both HC Brian Daboll (19-33-1) and GM Joe Schoen could be headed out the door if this team doesn't produce this year — and their schedule is unusually difficult for a team that finished last in their division the year before (.574, the toughest in the league — and even 20 pct. points tougher than last year's .554).
Dallas Cowboys (5-12) — As Tom Durkin liked to say, they have thrown in towel by trading away Micah Parsons, even if it might benefit them later on; but the move is going to greatly improve Dak Prescott's stats, as he is now going to have to carry the whole team (they were 27th in the league in rushing yards last season, and last in rushing touchdowns — with six). Jerry Jones had to endure a period of "down time" when he bought "America's Team" back in 1989; looks like deja vu all over again.
NFC North
Detroit Lions (13-4) — Can they win a third consecutive division title after having gone three decades without winning even one? They sure can.
Green Bay Packers (12-5) — Micah Parsons cost a lot, and they're counting on him to get them across the finish line first. But Lions appear too ferocious.
Minnesota Vikings (8-9) — De-facto rookie QB J.J. McCarthy (missed all of what was going to be his actual rookie season due to a torn meniscus last August) will finally make his NFL debut Monday night at Chicago; but defense must improve last year's 28th ranking against the pass, often a problem when a team uses a base 3-4; willing to dismiss 2024 as a fluke.
Chicago Bears (7-10) — Caleb Williams could prove to be a bust — after all, they were last in total offense a year ago, allowed the most sacks in the league (68), and were 28th in points scored (310) and 24th in yards gained per completion (10.1). Defense was "respectable" last season — but that could have been because teams played "not to lose" against them (they were 28th against the run but 16th against the pass). Ben Johnson's first season as a head coach is not likely to be auspicious.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6) — Mike Evans can break Jerry Rice's record by logging his 12th consecutive season of 1,000 or more yards receiving if he does it again this year. Don't bet against him — and don't bet against his team winning their fifth straight division crown either.
Carolina Panthers (7-10) — Three teams rounding out the exacta in their respective divisions with losing records? They're sticking with the diminutive Bryce Young at QB, which may or may not be a good idea; power back Chuba Hubbard comes off a season in which he ran for 1,195 yards and scored 10 TDs. But defense is a major concern after ranking last in the league in both points and yards allowed a year ago (and also a distant last against the run). Can get up for the runner-up spot — but they're no match for the Bucs.
Atlanta Falcons (6-11) — They have missed the playoffs the last seven years in a row, so now they are turning the starting QB duties to second-year pro Michael Penix. Both Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are capable runners, but lack size; receivers finished 8th in yards gained per completion in 2024. But on defense, the pass rush only got 31 sacks, second fewest in the league, was 22nd against the pass, and allowed the second-most TDs passing. Could have some exciting moments on offense — but more likely to disappoint than surprise.
New Orleans Saints (2-15) — Did anyone save their 'Aints bags from 1980? This will be an awesome time to bring them back out — and if they do get the opportunity to draft Arch Manning, this could be the perfect time for Roger Goodell to implement a lottery.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers (15-2) — The 149 percentage-point drop in strength of schedule they will be taking is the biggest plunge that the NFL has seen since at least 1996. Unless they get hit with a truly massive injury pandemic, this will be the team to beat in Super Bowl LX.
Los Angeles Rams (10-7) — Weathered the storm of quick-fix trades to remain in contention. But 49ers have everything their own way.
Seattle Seahawks (8-9) — "Trading" Geno Smith for Sam Darnold was not a good idea, no matter what Darnold did last year. Missed the playoffs in 2024 on the basis of the strength-of-victory tiebreaker. They'll miss by a wider margin this time around.
Arizona Cardinals (5-12) — "Murray back to pass, he's under a rush, he throws ... and it's batted down!" No thanks.
Playoffs (Home teams in CAPS)
AFC Wild Card — KANSAS CITY over L.A. Chargers
..........................Denver over CINCINNATI
..........................Baltimore over HOUSTON
NFC Wild Card — DETROIT over L.A. Rams
..........................WASHINGTON over Philadelphia
..........................Green Bay over TAMPA BAY
AFC Semifinals — BUFFALO over Denver
...........................KANSAS CITY over Baltimore
NFC Semifinals — SAN FRANCISCO over Green Bay
...........................DETROIT over Washington
AFC Championship — BUFFALO over Kansas City
NFC Championship — SAN FRANCISCO over Detroit
Super Bowl LX — San Francisco over Buffalo
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