Ahh, at last we come to the first weekend where we'll get both college and NFL football. But don't forget the CFL is still going at it, too. We got picks for them all. Lines courtesy of Bovada:
Friday, 7:30 PM Eastern
BC Lions at Ottawa Redblacks (+4.5)
The wild card for this matchup is who starts for the Redblacks under center. Their normal starter is Dru Brown, but he gets banged up a lot, and when he does, they turn to Dustin Crum.
Crum is a serviceable backup, but his numbers across-the-board are worse than Brown's, including against the spread. Since Week 6, Ottawa is 3-0 ATS when Brown gets the majority of the snaps, and 1-2 when Crum does.
This week, Brown has practiced Monday and Tuesday, but was "limited" both days. Recheck this one on game day. If Brown starts, take Ottawa. If Crum does, take BC.
Saturday, Noon Eastern
Central Michigan (+22) at Pitt
Sorry, you're a telling me a Pitt team widely anticipated to be a middling ACC team, is going to blow out Central Michigan, who just defeated (and, statistically, went toe-to-toe with; no fluke here) a San Jose State team predicted to finish third in the Mountain West, on the road? Nah. Give me the Chipps.
Another thing to watch for: in their game against San Jose State, Central Michigan's uniforms were clearly inspired by the the Washington Redskins look before becoming the Commanders, right down to the helmet and pants stripes. WILL THEY DO SO AGAIN?
Saturday, 3:30 PM Eastern
Ole Miss at Kentucky (+10)
In general, I'm pretty reluctant to lay the points early in football seasons (well, all sports, but especially football), because we don't really know who's good and who's not a few weeks in. You'll see this as a recurring theme in this article, and it's a strategy that has worked well for me over the years.
Yes, maybe Ole Miss, with revenge on their mind, boatraces Kentucky, a team who beat the Rebs on the road for their only conference victory last year and in so doing probably kept Ole Miss out of the playoffs.
But Kentucky is at home here and giving double-digit points, and take a gander at the last few seasons of Kentucky football — they always start strong. Last week's win over Toledo was a nice one, as well.
Saturday, 3:30 PM Eastern
Oklahoma State (+28) at Oregon
See above about not wanting to lay a lot of points early in the season, plus, come on now. I know they sucked last year, but the Pokes are just a year removed from a Big 12 Conference Championship Game appearance. Mike Gundy, far more often than not, builds good, competitive teams.
Saturday, 4:00 PM Eastern
Saskatchewan (+1) at Winnipeg
I'm kind of playing with fire on this one. Saskatchewan beat Winnipeg last week by just four at home, and it was close in the stats book as well as the scoreboard. Now, Winnipeg's back home, and this is a rivalry game.
Still, if you pull back a little, you see a Winnipeg team that is is 3-5 in their last 8 games. Saskatchewan and Calgary, by both record and consensus, are the best two teams in the CFL by some margin, and Sask's only losses this year have come against Calgary. I think the Riders sweep the back-to-back.
Sunday, 4:00 PM Eastern
Tennessee (+8.5) at Denver
This is the biggest spread of Week 1, and my reticence to laying points early in football seasons goes double for the pros, where parity rules.
But if I am going to break that trend, it certainly won't be for the Denver Broncos. Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, someone like that who have been very good for a few seasons on the trot now, maybe. But the Broncos just made the playoffs for the first time in forever last year by squeaking in, and got blown off the field by Buffalo for the quick exit. I'll take the Titans.
Happy betting, everyone!
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