Coming into this college football season, Texas and Penn State were arguably the two most optimistic teams in the country. Both rosters looked stacked despite some key NFL draft losses, and resources had been pumped in for players and coaches alike.
Less than six weeks later, the preseason No. 1 and 2 teams look more likely to suffer four-loss seasons than make the College Football Playoff following catastrophic conference losses and multiple top-10 teams still to play.
If both the Longhorns and Nittany Lions finish the season unranked, it will be a huge historical anomaly, but recent history says that at least one preseason top 10 team drops out of the rankings by the end of the season.
But to me, one of the more underrated aspects of the 12-team College Football Playoff is that previously unheralded teams from power conferences can now take advantage of preseason disappointments and find themselves in the championship tournament on the first Sunday of December. Indiana, SMU, and Arizona State were great examples of this last year.
So far, with more than half of the season still to play, there's no shortage of Power 4 teams that weren't thought highly of in mid-August that now have a chance to be selected by the CFP committee should they win out or finish the season with one more loss.
Let's look at some teams in the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 that could conceivably have their names called in two months. I couldn't find definitive preseason odds to make the CFP, so my caveats are that 1) teams in this list couldn't have appeared on ESPN's "32 teams can make the College Football Playoff" article from August that implied a 10 percent chance or higher of making the playoff, 2) couldn't have been ranked in the preseason, and 3) must currently have fewer than two losses overall or be undefeated in conference.
(Note: All CFP percentage chances come from The Athletic, and all odds from FanDuel.)
SEC
Missouri (5-0, 1-0 SEC)
CFP chances: 29%
Betting odds: +172
Vanderbilt (5-1, 1-1 SEC)
CFP chances: 3%
Betting odds: +470
It would be a fool's errand to try to prognosticate the playoff teams from the SEC. There's eight 5-0 or 4-1 SEC teams in this week's top 15 of the AP poll. But I think the equation is somewhat straightforward: get to 10-2 or 10-3 with a conference championship loss.
Missouri still has a real chance to do so, but will need to beat one of Alabama (this Saturday), Texas A&M, or Oklahoma and not trip up on the road at Auburn, Vanderbilt, or Arkansas. After losing at Alabama, Vandy only leaves the state of Tennessee to face Texas. But 5-1 the rest of the way with games against LSU, Missouri, and Tennessee feels like a pretty tall mountain to climb.
Big Ten
Washington (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten)
CFP chances: 12%
Betting odds: +1120
Maryland (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten)
CFP chances: <1%
Betting odds: Off the board (+30000 to win Big Ten)
These two teams played last Saturday, with Maryland cruising to a 20-0 lead early in the second half. Even after Washington kicked a field goal late in the third, Maryland had a win probability of about 97%. Then, the Huskies took over, scoring three fourth-quarter touchdowns for a stunning 24-20 road win and to further continue Maryland's run of turning into pumpkins when the calendar hits October.
Washington lost by 18 in its home test with top-ranked Ohio State, but the Huskies hung in the game for much longer than expected. Three ranked games remain for Washington (at Michigan, Illinois, Oregon), and the rest of the schedule is pretty manageable. At more than 11/1 odds in the sportsbooks, I don't mind the Huskies as a dark-horse playoff chance. Demond Williams is a joy to watch, and the defense grades out well in advanced stats.
ACC
Georgia Tech (5-0, 2-0 ACC)
CFP chances: 29%
Betting odds: +270
Louisville (4-1, 1-1 ACC)
CFP chances: 13%
Betting odds: +2500
Virginia (5-1, 3-0 ACC)
CFP chances: 12%
Betting odds: +820
Duke (4-2, 3-0 ACC)
CFP chances: 10%
Betting odds: +1600
At the moment, the ACC feels like the most promising conference of the four to produce an unexpected playoff team.
But we have to focus on the schedules that avoid Miami, because the Hurricanes look like they may be the most complete ACC team since Clemson in 2019. That means we can just about cross off Louisville, whose next game is at Hard Rock Stadium and follows a gut-wrenching loss to veteran-laden Virginia.
Georgia Tech has been the class of these four teams so far, and probably won't have to play a ranked conference game before the ACC title game unless Duke slides into the polls before their Oct. 18 game. But the Jackets could also grab a huge marquee win Thanksgiving weekend against Georgia. That rivalry game could turn out to be a non-conference play-in for the CFP.
Virginia might just be the Cinderella story of the Power 4 this year, and has the bizarre scheduling quirk of being undefeated in conference play while also having a loss to an ACC team as a result of a scheduled non-conference game against NC State. The schedule is light, though, and Duke is probably the only strength of schedule booster left. Could this team get in at 11-2 with a loss to Miami in the ACC title game? There's too much football left to say for sure.
Duke is the only two-loss club on this list for any conference, and its offense has been fantastic in conference play following back-to-back non-conference losses to Illinois and Tulane. Winning out would give the Blue Devils five true road wins and victories against Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Virginia. A CFP berth sounds implausible at first glance, but Darian Mensah could be a top 5 QB in all of America at the moment.
Big 12
Utah (4-1, 1-1 Big 12)
CFP chances: 14%
Betting odds: +630
Cincinnati (4-1, 2-0 Big 12)
CFP chances: 6%
Betting odds: +920
Arizona (4-1, 1-1 Big 12)
CFP chances: <1%
Betting odds: +2500
Houston (4-1, 1-1 Big 12)
CFP chances: <1%
Betting odds: Off the board (+8000 to win Big 12)
This conference has felt like a bit of a roulette wheel since Oklahoma and Texas left. Last year, Utah and Oklahoma State were the top-ranked teams in the preseason and combined for a 2-16 conference record while 16th place in the preseason media poll won the league. This year, Kansas State was projected to be a playoff contender and is now having a terrible season at 2-4.
But unlike last year when two-loss Arizona State came out of left field and wasn't ranked until the second half of November, there's a clear team to beat in the conference: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders, who pumped big money into NIL to improve their defense in the transfer portal, have been dominant so far. They've already won road games against two teams in this section, Utah and Houston, and have won every game by at least three scores.
Could this conference get an at-large bid if Texas Tech ends up being an undefeated juggernaut? With a nine-game conference schedule, four teams unbeaten in conference, and nine teams at 1 loss or fewer overall, it's too early to say. But of this group that didn't have 10% or higher preseason odds, I think Cincinnati could be an interesting proposition after beating Iowa State last Saturday. Brendan Sorsby has been one of the nation's most efficient passers so far this season.
As you can tell from the odds from The Athletic, there's a decent likelihood none of these teams make the cut for the CFP with so much football left to play. There's also a chance the bottom falls out for a team or two on the list, like it did for Pitt last year. Still, the sky feels like it could be the limit for teams like Georgia Tech, Virginia, Missouri, and Washington in 2025.
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