Despite Bruce Pearl's best efforts, a relatively controversy-free Selection Sunday has come and gone. Now, it's time to play the games and eventually crown a champion in Indianapolis on the first Monday in April.
This tournament will almost certainly look different than it did 15 or even 10 years ago. With the transfer portal and NIL, college basketball is as top-heavy as it's ever been. Big upsets may occur sparingly, but the standard of play as the tournament persists is very high. I don't think we'll have a 53-41 title game this year.
Before the post-First Four bracket starts getting whittled down from 64 teams, I'd like to offer five bold claims for the tournament.
1. Duke, Michigan, and Arizona are three of the most impressive teams I can remember heading into the dance.
Very early into the season, it was clear that Michigan and Arizona had one-seed, championship potential. Arizona didn't catch a loss in a loaded Big 12 until Feb. 9, and Michigan started 25-1. Duke had less impressive showings against top competition in November and December, but still went 11-1 in a stacked non-conference schedule.
It wasn't until Duke took down Michigan in the most anticipated game of the regular season in Washington, D.C. on Feb. 21 that I truly regarded this as a triumvirate.
Such was this group's dominance that all three came within eight points or fewer of an undefeated regular season. Even in a year where the top 20 teams have felt a level above the pack, these three have stood out.
There have been March Madness years like 2003 (Arizona and Kentucky) and 2010 (Kansas and Kentucky) where teams seemed far ahead of the pack only to wind up short of the Final Four, but I would be stunned if at least two of these three don't make it to the last weekend.
It's hard to separate them in a pre-tournament pecking order, but I'd put Michigan at the top thanks to Duke's current injuries and the fact that Arizona isn't a great three-point shooting team. But any of the three could win the title.
2. This is finally the year for Nebraska.
During the past 10 years, some of college basketball's most enduring "never" events have fallen to the wayside, including Northwestern making an NCAA tournament in 2017 and Clemson winning against North Carolina in Chapel Hill in 2020.
But Nebraska has still never won a tourney game in eight appearances, making them the only team in a power conference to have never tasted victory in March Madness. Well, this has to be the year.
The Huskers are a defensive juggernaut that forces teams into tough shots and turnovers, and that should be enough to overcome 13th-seeded Troy on Thursday. I don't see Nebrasketball having much of a chance against Florida should they make the Sweet 16, but that probably won't matter. This is the rare example of a 4-seed where a first round win and exit against Vanderbilt or McNeese on Saturday will be a historic result.
3. The tournament shouldn't expand, BUT...
... if it does, it should be under one condition: guaranteed play-in spots for regular season conference champions.
Let's say the tournament expands to 72. The 12- or 13-seeds in the bracket could be determined by eight regular-season conference champions from otherwise one-bid leagues. Mid-majors could still earn a spot in the at-large pool or go into the regular First Four games for an 11-seed if they finished 2nd or 3rd in conference. These spots could be determined solely by the Selection Committee or done in a way that gives precedence to conferences who have performed in recent tournaments.
However the onion is sliced, what would be terrible is for more spots to be thrown to power conferences. The bubble was bad enough this year that it felt like SMU and Texas made the field by default over an Oklahoma team that started conference play 1-9 and an Auburn team that lost 16 times in 33 tries.
Additionally, guaranteeing spots for historical one-bid leagues would make cases like 2026 Miami University having to sweat out the Selection Show moot. An undefeated regular season would mean you're in. The only question would be seed and path.
4. Gonzaga, Purdue, and UConn are the protected seeds I believe in the least.
Every year, I try to decide on a few teams that I don't think are as impressive as public sentiment would have you believe. This doesn't mean that I think they're going to crash out and lose to a low seed in round one, and I may even pick them to get to the second weekend. But I won't take the leap on said teams being Final Four contenders.
UConn, perhaps more than any other program, is synonymous with stepping its game up for March Madness, and I'm taking a leap here fading them. But despite having a No. 2 seed, the Huskies aren't as solid on offense as some of their recent predecessors. They also have the unpleasant combination of not getting to the line often and fouling too much on defense.
Purdue just won the Big Ten tournament, but the last time they did that was three years ago when the Boilermakers lost to a 16 seed. Purdue found enough defense to win in Chicago, but it's been a bad defensive team in Big Ten play and lost 7 of 13 to close out the regular season after a 17-1 start. Miami's Malik Reneau could well dominate the Boilers in Round 2, and a potential Missouri contest in round two would be in St. Louis.
I've written about Gonzaga already this season, but that was before Braden Huff's injury timeline kept getting pushed back. It seems unlikely that he'll be playing in the first two rounds of the tournament. And that could mean not having a crucial player to throw at BYU freshman sensation AJ Dybantsa in a potential Saturday evening matchup.
This 'Zags team doesn't have quite as much elite talent as in previous years, and they're going to have to be pretty reliant on Graham Ike to score.
5. St. John's is the team most likely to beat Duke before the Final Four.
In the wake of the bracket reveal, there was a lot of discussion about how loaded the East region is and the three (going on four) Hall of Fame coaches seeking to beat top-ranked Duke and make it to Indy.
I think a lot of that is narrative- and brand name-driven stuff. If Duke can get starting center Patrick Ngongba back and relatively healthy before the Sweet 16, I don't know if UConn, Michigan State, and Kansas pose a critical threat to Duke. The Blue Devils' defense guards so well on the perimeter and their offensive rebounding provides such a margin of error on the other end that I think they can account for the Huskies, Spartans, and Jayhawks, who have all been inconsistent at times heading into March Madness.
But St. John's could present a different challenge with Zuby Ejiofor. In Duke's two losses to Texas Tech and UNC, the Devils have been vulnerable to dynamic big men like J.T. Toppin and Caleb Wilson that can get to their spots on offense. And except for point guard, St. John's won't be at a huge size disadvantage over the rest of the lineup as most teams are.
And if you're playing in a big March Madness pool, this is the type of pick that could lead to success. Duke is the biggest brand in college hoops, and many people will be picking them to win the title on April 6.
If you think Arizona and Michigan are just as good and that Duke is vulnerable with their injuries, there's value to be had — and you don't have to beat all the Duke champion picks to win the pool. But you of course run the risk that Darryn Peterson and Tre White could shoot the Johnnies out of the field on Saturday in a likely Kansas/St. John's matchup.
As a bonus, I don't see any 5-seeds or better losing their first-round contest. But if you made me pick one lower seed that's most likely to pull an upset, I'd go with High Point over Wisconsin. The Panthers have serious talent bolstered by a huge NIL outlay for a mid-major and ran circles around the field in the Big South.
If you love total chaos, you may be a bit disappointed by the first few days of the tournament. But if you enjoy high-level basketball at both ends of the floor, the next three weeks should be right up your alley.
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