Even though a record 24 horses (including four also-eligibles) were drawn for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, only three of them pass all of the "checkpoints," based on pedigree, to be realistically expected to successfully negotiate the race's mile-and-a-quarter distance.
First, there is "Checkpoint Alpha," which the vast majority of horses do pass through unimpeded — and this year is no exception, in that only two of the two dozen horses have a Dosage Index of higher than 4.00: So Happy, with a Dosage Index of 7.00, and Fulleffort at 4.09 (Fulleffort is also scheduled to break from post position 20, which has produced only two winners in Derby history: Big Brown in 2008 and Rich Strike in 2022).
"Checkpoint Beta" — not having been weighted within 10 pounds of the highweight on the previous year's Experimental Free Handicap for two-year-olds (although the EFH was itself done away with in 2019, a reasonable substitution can be made by eliminating two-year-old colts who did not finish first, second, or third in a Grade 1 stakes race or had not finished first or second in a Grade 2 stakes race or had not won any graded stakes race as a two-year-old) — rules out Chief Wallabee and Emerging Market (both unraced at two), Albus (did not win a race in two starts as a two-year-old), along with also-eligibles Ocelli (also winless in two starts at 2 and if he gets to run will be the 13th maiden to run in the Derby since 1937) and Corona de Oro (also winless at 2, although he has won since), Golden Tempo (only one two-year-old win — in a maiden race), along with Pavlovian (who just misses qualifying as he was second, albeit distantly so, in the Grade 3 Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar last August) and Six Speed (1-for-2 as a two-year-old in two low-level races in the United Arab Emirates).
Next we move on to Checkpoint Charlie (not the one in Berlin), which annually denies many horses further advancement, in that it bars admission to all horses whose Dosage Profiles lack both Solid and Professional chef-de-race representation: In post-position order, from the rail out, these horses in 2026 are expected post-time favorite Renegade (Ferdinand, in 1986, was the most recent horse breaking from post position 1 to win the Derby, even though it has happened eight times all told), Intrepido, Right to Party, Commandment, Danon Bourbon, The Puma, Silent Tactic, Potente, Further Ado (despite his 106 Beyer speed figure in the Toyota Blue Grass, the highest such number in the field), and, if either of them do get in, Great White (by all means, be Once Bitten, Twice Shy if he does get in) and fellow also-eligible Robusta.
That leaves us with just three horses: Litmus Test, Japanese import Wonder Dean (remember that you can't spell "dependable" without "D-E-A-N"!), and Incredibolt.
Litmus Test earned a 102 Beyer speed figure when he finished fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year, proving that he is capable of winning a race like the Derby — and the presence of Classic-Solid chef-de-race Nijinsky II in his pedigree gives him a passing grade in that department.
Wonder Dean owes his stamina-wing credentials to Classic-Solid chef-de-race Saddlers Wells, and had a pair of runner-up finishes as a two-year-old in his native Japan before winning the Grade 2 UAE Derby at Meydan over Six Speed, who had three wins in the United Arab Emirates before finishing second behind Wonder Dean in the UAE Derby.
Incredibolt is 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs, including a win in the Grade 3 Street Sense (named after the first Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner ever to win the Derby the following year!) Stakes at 2 and also won the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs in March with a 100 Beyer speed figure — and like Litmus Test, Saddlers Wells also appears in Incredibolt's pedigree.
It is not very often that only three horses get through all three checkpoints — not, indeed, since 1990, when Unbridled, Summer Squall, and Pleasant Tap combined, in that order, for a $4,427.40 trifecta payout on a $2 wager.
That's big balloons, as the late Harvey Pack liked to say.
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