Predicted records in parentheses.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (13-4) — If John Elway could need 15 years to get a ring, then why can't Josh Allen do it in nine? Plus, they get to play their likely main rivals — the Chargers — at home; but the game is in Week 3, so no weather advantage, making The Battle of the Gunslingers — Allen vs. Justin Herbert — a toss-up.
New York Jets (8-9) — Breece Hall, for better or worse the model of a 21st-Century NFL RB (5-11, 217, 4.39 at his combine) is coming off his first 1,000-yard season of his pro career, which will enter its sixth season this year; Geno Smith, who can certainly answer Jimi Hendrix's question "Are You Experienced?" in the affirmative, will take over at QB; OL allowed 60 sacks a year ago (only the Raiders gave up more, with 64), while defense was a fever swamp in 2025, but second overall draftee David Baley, a ramblin' wreck from Texas Tech, should start right away (the Jets had three first-round picks this spring) in projected 4-3 scheme. With both a suicide schedule and the Super Bowl Runner-Up Jinx plaguing the Pats, this team could complete the division exacta at a generous price — but they're no threat to New York State's Only Team.
New England Patriots (7-10) — You have to go all the way back to 2008 to find a team whose strength of schedule jumped more steeply than the .140 leap they're taking this year (Pittsburgh's SOS zoomed by .145 in '08); QB Drake Maye had 113.5 passer rating during the '25 regular season, but it was 58.8 in the AFC title game and 79.1 in the Super Bowl, while power back Rhamondre Stevenson contributed 7 rushing TDs. Will have an extremely hard time scoring 490 points, allowing only 320, or going 14-3 again this year, with their schedule.
Miami Dolphins (2-15) — Bud Grant once said that they're not America's Team, but they're the league's team, due to how few penalties were getting called against them — but now they're Alan Arkin's Team, holding a fire sale that puts the one in the 1977 movie to shame, causing their wide receivers, for example, to go from the best in the NFL to the worst (they're tied with Cleveland's QBs for the league's worst composite unit, as per Lindy's); and remember that Stephen Ross was docked a first-round pick in 2023 for allegedly tanking games in 2019. With this in mind, if any of the books are offering odds on which team is going to get the number one pick in 2027, a bet on Miami to do so would be no vice.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals (11-6) — One of these years their offensive line will be good enough to keep Joe Burrow upright. Then again, one of these years could be none of these years.
Baltimore Ravens (10-7) — Lamar Jackson is 76-31 as a starter in the regular season, but 3-5 in the playoffs, with only one Final Four appearance. Derrick Henry remains as powerful as ever, with 1,595 yards and 16 TDs in 2025, his 10th season in the NFL. Defense must improve against the pass, where it tied for next-to-last a season ago, and the team as a whole needs a more alert start than last year's 1-5 beginning — a hole that only the '70 Bengals (1-6) and '15 Chiefs have dug themselves out of and made the playoffs; there or thereabouts.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8) — Aaron Rodgers could outlast Tom Brady in terms of overall career length; their RBs were shut out of the 1,000-yard club in 2025, but Rico Dowdle was a member of it in both 2024 and '25, and now he's on board; they were a very un-Steeler-like 26th in the NFL in rushing in 2025, and defense was 29th against the pass. Maybe incoming HC Mike McCarthy, who has a ring from his days in Green Bay and was born in Pittsburgh, should consider a switch to the 4-3?
Cleveland Browns (4-13) — Shedeur Sanders "heads" their QB room as the season starts; boast above-average size at RB but below-average talent along both the OL and at the receiving slots, while defense allowed 22.3 points per game in 2025 — not bad for a unit that spent way too much time on the field. HC Kevin Stefanski and DC Jim Schwartz are gone, replaced by Todd Monken and Mike Rutenberg, respectively; not interested.
AFC South
Houston Texans (11-6) — Clearly have the best overall personnel in this division, but like the Ravens, they struggled early last year, with 0-3, 2-4, and 3-5 starts; traded for scatback-ish David Montgomery, while the WR contingent is headed by the 6-foot-4 Nico Collins. HC DeMeco Ryans was a Defensive ROTY and Pro Bowler as a player, and last year his unit had 47 sacks and tied for third in the league in interceptions with 19. Like Baltimore, they need a more alert start — and if they get one, they will return to the top of the division.
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7) — Trevor Lawrence finally gained admission to the gunslinger fraternity with 4,007 yards, 29 TDs and 12 INTs in 2025, leading the team to a nine-game improvement that would have made rookie HC Liam Coen COTY if not for Mike Vrabel's 10-game leap culminating in a trip to the Super Bowl. But Travis Etienne departed for New Orleans, and they were only 20th in the league in rushing even with him, so Lawrence is going to need to be an even bigger gunslinger this year; and to add insult to injury, they traded a truckload of future draft picks, including their first-rounder this spring, for projected two-way player Travis Hunter; they'll slip a bit this year.
Indianapolis Colts (7-10) — With Anthony Richardson pretty much a confirmed bust, it will be Daniel Jones, 33-50-1 record as a starter and all, at QB again, leaving RB Jonathan Taylor to wither on the vine as he will confront 8- or even 9-man fronts on virtually every down. Alec Pierce, very likely the fastest white WR to play in the NFL since Kevin Curtis, comes off back-to-back 20-plus yards-per-catch seasons. Did not have a first-round pick in '26 due to the Sauce Gardner trade (they won't have a first-rounder next year either); both Texans and Jags excite more, mainly because of the QB situation.
Tennessee Titans (5-12) — Cam Ward is going to need to move forward from a rookie year that saw him complete 59.8% of his passes and saw the team rank 30th in the league in passing (they were also 30th in rushing despite ex-Cowboy Tony Pollard rushing for over 1,000 yards again); better pass protection will help (Ward was sacked 55 times in 2025), and they should get more production at the receiver slots with the drafting of Carnell Tate and the free-agent signing of Wan'Dale Robinson (smaller, but faster than Tate). Defense goes to a 4-3 under DC Gus Bradley, while ex-Giant HC Brian Daboll is the new OC. It's good to see Robert Saleh get a second chance as a HC after he went 20-36 with the Jets; may do later.
AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers (14-3) — The AFC had all of the "17th games" at home a year ago, but they still lost the interconference season series, 41-39; this season it's the NFC's turn to host those games, but the AFC has the better QBs. Justin Herbert (6-6, 236) could head the AFC contingent in more ways than one; while RB Omarion Hampton is not quite the power back that Najee Harris was (Harris is now with the Giants), he certainly fits that mold more than well enough; Herbert, not known for his mobility, was sacked 54 times in 2025, but the return of both OTs Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater will make sure that this will not happen again, while receiving corps adds uber-speedster Brenen Thompson, who blazed a 4.26 at the combine. DC Chris O'Leary's 3-4 defense, not surprisingly, is slanted heavily toward stopping the run — a fact seemingly contradicted by its 2025 rankings of 12th against the run and 18th against the pass. With the Chiefs coming off a terrible year and the Broncos not having had a pick until the third round of the '26 draft, both the division title and a chance to host Super Bowl LXI (which is at SoFi Stadium on Valentine's Day) seem well within their reach.
Kansas City Chiefs (10-7) — Had a "troubled trip" last year as they say on the racetrack, culminating in the season-ending injury suffered by Patrick Mahomes in Week 15 against the Chargers, but Mahomes is expected to answer the proverbial bell; RB Kenneth Walker III arrives in free agency from erstwhile division rival Seattle, and former Patriot Tyquan Thornton (6-2, 185, 4.26) will try to make them forget Tyreek Hill. All five of their starting offensive linemen are under 30, while OC Eric Bieniemy (in his second stint with KC) and DC Steve Spagnuolo will be on hand to fill those roles. But one always has to wonder if a team coming off the kind of season they had last year are simply going to bounce right back the following season as if nothing ever happened, so we're siding with Bolts for the division crown, although this team does have a solid shot at a wild card.
Denver Broncos (9-8) — Did not have a pick until the third round of the 2026 draft (only in 1986 and 1995 did they make their initial selection even later — in the fourth round in both cases); not only that, but their strength of schedule is up by .090 from the slate they played last year (from .422 to .512). And how impressed are you with Bo Nix and his 87.8 passer rating? The league average was 89.4. On shaky ground at best.
Las Vegas Raiders (3-14) — 2025 caboose (on tie-breakers vs. the Jets, Cardinals, and Titans) hope that Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza can get them above the Mendoza Line; 2025 first-round pick Ashton Jeanty and '26 fourth-rounder Mike Washington Jr. could give them a classic Mutt 'n Jeff backfield; OL allowed 64 sacks, the most in the league, in '25, and when your undisputed #1 receiver is a tight end (Brock Bowers), you know you're in extremely serious trouble. On defense, the line got a boost when the trade of Maxx Crosby to the Ravens was voided, the undersized Nakobe Dean comes over from Philadelphia to join a somewhat less undersized LB contingent, but secondary will get shellshocked if pass rush does not improve; impossible to endorse for any paying position.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles (12-5) — Since 2016, they're 4-5 in January (regular season only), compared with 117-58-1 in the other months, making one wonder how Jeffrey Lurie will vote when the time comes to extend the schedule to 18 games. Had a decent spring, signing legitimate deep threat Hollywood Brown to replace A.J. Brown (no relation) — an awesome development considering that top draftee Makai Lemon is showing early signs of blossoming into, well, a lemon. Saquon Barkley will be seeking his third straight 1,000-yard season (he actually went over 2,000 in 2024) and sixth in a career that will enter its ninth season in 2026. Defense was 13th in yards allowed but fifth in points surrendered, but K Jake Elliott struggled mightily in '25 and could get the heave-ho if he doesn't rebound. Strength of schedule goes up by a statistically insignificant .005 while the SOS of their closest pursuer (Dallas) goes up by .055; after no team had won this division two years in a row for 20 years, they're primed to make it three straight.
Dallas Cowboys (10-7) — The 511 points they allowed in 2025 constituted a franchise record; they were also 30th in total defense and last against the pass, but Dak Prescott remains one of league's most dangerous QBs, with a career passer rating of 98.0, higher than that of Jalen Hurts at 94.3 (both figures include playoff games). RB Javonte Williams made a name for himself by rushing for 1,201 yards and finding the end zone 13 times, and receivers are headed by WRs George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb and TE Jake Ferguson, and OL allowed just 31 sacks a year ago, but DC Christian Parker is committing a grave sin by switching to the 3-4. Dak and the offense will keep them in most games, but the suspect (to say the least) defense makes them a bit player at best in the postseason picture.
New York Giants (7-10) — Wouldn't you really rather have a Harbaugh? Apparently they would, hiring John Harbaugh exactly two weeks after the Ravens fired him; RB Cam Skattebo and WR Malik Nabors both ended the 2025 season on injured reserve, while WR Malachi Fields and TE Isaiah Likely arrive via the draft (third round) and free agency respectively, figuring to make QB Jaxson Dart's job easier. Despite operating out of the 3-4, defense has ranked 31st, 27th, 29th, and 27th against the run the last four years, while three free agents were added to secondary. Headed in the right direction, but a playoff appearance in 2026 doesn't appear to be in the offing.
Washington Commanders (6-11) — Will the real Washington Commanders please stand up? 12-5 and in the Final Four in 2024, but 5-12 in 2025; QB Jayden Daniels missed 10 games with three different injuries, while WR Terry McLaurin missed "only" seven in an offense whose leading rusher gained 805 yards in 2025 and the leading receiver had 727, while the defense comes off a season in which it ranked 28th in points allowed and last in yards allowed. Suffice it to say that HC Dan Quinn is on the hottest of hot seats; pass.
NFC North
Detroit Lions (13-4) — Disappointed last season with a last-place division finish (because they were swept head-to-head by Minnesota), so as a result they get an easier schedule, which should help; QB Jared Goff, who was 0-7 as a rookie, is 94-58-1 since; the diminutive Jahmyr Gibbs heads an RB contingent that now includes former Chief Isaiah Pacheco; WRs are headed by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Defense lost LB Alex Anzalone to Bucs in free agency, but otherwise nothing much changes. Any team that finishes with a winning record and last in their division must always be regarded as dangerous, and this is no exception; the pick.
Green Bay Packers (10-7) — Four games against warm-weather and indoor teams in mid-November or later on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, including three of their last four to close out the season, the final three vs. the Dolphins, Texans (on Monday night no less) and Lions, will be a huge advantage, especially because they ended the 2025 season with five consecutive losses, four of them on the road. QB Jordan Love had his best season as a starter in 2025 (291-for-439 for 3,381 yards with 23 TDs and 6 INTs for a passer rating of 101.2 on your FM dial); three-time Pro Bowl RB Josh Jacobs missed two games with a knee injury, denying him a fifth 1,000-yard season; WR Christian Watson went back to doing his best Calvin Johnson impression after missing the first 7 games with a torn ACL. On defense, the 3-4 is headed by DEs Javon Hargrave and Devonte Wyatt and ex-Dallas mainstay Micah Parsons. They begin the year with three of their first four games on the road, but that only helps them since it means more late-season games at home, where they shine; definite contender in both the division and the overall playoff picture.
Chicago Bears (9-8) — Caleb "Twinkle Toes" Williams still has something to prove (16-18 as a starter and an 89.0 passer rating in his two years in the NFL); they still have never — repeat, never — had a 4,000-yard passer in a history that goes all the way back to 1920 (!). RB D'Andre Swift, who has been everywhere, man, has two 1,000-yard seasons in his last three years, but now they're mighty thin at WR with the trade of D.J. Moore to Buffalo, but only the Rams allowed fewer sacks than their 24 in '25. Defense will have to step it up big time after ranking 29th overall, 27th against the run, and 22nd against the pass a year ago. Obviously, contention runs deep in a division in which all four teams are coming off winning seasons; another fringe player in the loaded NFC.
Minnesota Vikings (8-9) — J.J. McCarthy lost his entire 2025 season to a preseason meniscus tear, and now he has lost his 2026 season to the vertically-challenged Kyler Murray, who comes over via free agency from Arizona. WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison both return, as does TE T.J. Hockenson, but they stood pat along the offensive line despite allowing 60 sacks in 2025. Defense was third overall and second against the pass (21st against the run), not what you'd expect from a 3-4. K Will Reichard earned All-Pro nod by connecting on 33 field goals, including a 62-yarder, in 35 attempts. They'd win the NFC South going away — but unfortunately, they're not in the NFC South; prefer others.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) — Three seasons in Tampa, 54 games in Tampa, including three in the playoffs — that's Baker Mayfield's resume; running game lacks a power option, and WR corps lost Mike Evans to 49ers in free agency, while OL seeks rebound from a 2025 season that left it desecrated with injuries. Defense was fifth against the run but 27th against the pass a year ago, making it quite understandable that they drafted outside linebacker Reuben Bain, Jr. and signed inside man Alex Anzalone in free agency. This division isn't getting any tougher (and they're facing the supercharged NFC North in 2026), so nine Ws should be enough to win it.
New Orleans Saints (8-9) — Is Tyler Slough the answer? If he is, he could become the kind of "gunslinger" that very few NFC teams have. WR Chris Olave is a consummate route-runner with speed (4.39 at the 2022 combine), while Travis Etienne is your typical contemporary NFL RB at 5-10, 215. Defense ranked 19th against the run and fourth against the pass in their first year under DC Brandon Staley, and now that ILB Kalen Elliss has been signed from division rival Atlanta, look for more blitzes. Not the most physical team around, but they can be at least a factor to squeeze into the exotics.
Carolina Panthers (6-11) — Another Eddie LeBaron clone at QB (Bryce Young); Chuba Hubbard, a power back type, heads the depth chart at RB. while at the WR slots, size is on the menu, with '25 OROTY Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, and Chris Brazzell II all possessing it in abundance. Defensively, OLB Jaelean Phillips comes down I-95 from Philadelphia, and he was regarded by many as the most coveted prize of 2026 free agency, and CBs Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson combine to give them a secondary to die for. The top three here all have bend-but-don't-break, finesse-style defenses, along with questionable offenses, which is why this is going to be one of the league's weakest divisions for the fifth year in a row.
Atlanta Falcons (5-12) — Just because a team is the most physical in their division doesn't necessarily mean that they're the best, something that was true about this team four decades ago; not confident that Tua Tagovailoa will revive the echoes by crossing one state line, so look for Michael Penix, Jr. — and please, it's pronounced "PEN-nix" — to seize the starting job by mid-season. RB Bijan Robinson is the prototype "Elusive Back" as per Madden, and WR Zachariah Branch is an absolute steal in the third round. On defense, only Denver had more sacks than the 57 they notched last year, proving the inherent superiority of the 4-3 (note that they were 24th against the run a year ago, and 13th against the pass). Maybe a bit surprisingly, Kevin Stefanski comes over from Cleveland, where he was 45-56 in six seasons; casting sights elsewhere.
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams (15-2) — First they traded for Myles Garrett, then they persuaded Aaron Donald to come out of retirement. This is why they're 5-1 to win the Super Bowl and second-choice Buffalo is 10-1.
San Francisco 49ers (10-7) — Christian McCaffrey is the only RB classified as a "Receiving Back" as opposed to an "Elusive Back" or "Power Back" by Madden, and while QB Brock Purdy was "Mr. Irrelevant" in the 2022 draft, he has turned out to be anything but irrelevant, but Mike Evans figures to be less than 100% for a while. Defensive line trailed the entire NFL with only 20 sacks last year, but secondary allowed 9.65 yards per completion, the least in the league. With the Seahawks coping with the loss of some key players in free agency, they can complete the exacta behind the high-flying Rams.
Seattle Seahawks (9-8) — Still not sold on Sam Darnold, who got a ring with his fifth team, and they lost CB Riq Woolen to the Eagles and Kenneth Walker III to the Chiefs in free agency; loved power back Zach Charbonnet when they drafted him in 2023, but then the injuries started to pile up. Defense had higher '25 ranking against the run (3rd) than against the pass (10th) — the typical pattern for a 3-4. Is Darnold a redux of Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson? We'll disagree with Nancy Reagan and just say "yes."
Arizona Cardinals (2-15) — Unfortunately, they're not playing the Dolphins this year — since if they were, at least the top pick in the 2027 draft would have been settled on the field. The battle between Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew for the starting QB job will be fascinating — for all the wrong reasons; can't recommend.
Playoffs (Home Teams in CAPS)
AFC Wild Card: BUFFALO over Jacksonville
...........................HOUSTON over Baltimore
...........................Kansas City over CINCINNATI
NFC Wild Card: DETROIT over Dallas
...........................PHILADELPHIA over Green Bay
...........................San Francisco over TAMPA BAY
AFC Semifinals: L.A. CHARGERS over Kansas City
.............................BUFFALO over Houston
NFC Semifinals: L.A. RAMS over San Francisco
.............................Philadelphia over DETROIT
AFC Championship: L.A. CHARGERS over Buffalo
NFC Championship: L.A. RAMS over Philadelphia
Super Bowl LXI: L.A. Rams over L.A. Chargers
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